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Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 3:20 pm
by Brent
just got back to Dallas and it does not feel like mid April
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 3:27 pm
by northjaxpro
Ntxw wrote:Another crisp, cold April morning at DFW. The wind makes it feel colder than it is. It has been rare to see a below normal month.
You can thank the -NAO for the cooler than average meteorological spring most are experiencing , including where I am in North Florida.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 3:31 pm
by Haris
bubba hotep wrote:1st 1/3 of May?
There are some MASSIVE model disagreements . The euro and eps camp has still 1-3” of rain for Central and N TX while the gfs gefs camp have a 1/2” or so . Which solution do y’all think is more likely ???
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:02 pm
by South Texas Storms
The Euro and EPS have been more consistent and are typically more accurate in the medium range. They also have the UKMET model in agreement as well. Plus I'm biased and want the wetter models to win
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 6:20 pm
by Haris
South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow:
The Euro and EPS have been more consistent and are typically more accurate in the medium range. They also have the UKMET model in agreement as well. Plus I'm biased and want the wetter models to win
Indeed and , the dumb gfs trended towards the euro in its 18z run!
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 6:28 pm
by cheezyWXguy
Haris wrote:bubba hotep wrote:1st 1/3 of May?
There are some MASSIVE model disagreements . The euro and eps camp has still 1-3” of rain for Central and N TX while the gfs gefs camp have a 1/2” or so . Which solution do y’all think is more likely ???
I don't know which model camp to believe, but I will say, the GFS's shear profiles for NTX Friday night into Saturday are impressive. Large rounded hodographs, 0-3km SRH values above 500 m2/s2 at hour 138 in DFW. The major drawback to this event seems to be instability, according to both the GFS and Euro. The 12z Euro and 18z GFS also seem to be converging on the idea of a line of storms moving through at that time, but with such strong directional shear, I am reluctant to believe that activity wouldn't be discrete, or at least broken. I guess the majority of questions will be answered with time, but does anyone know why instability is forecast by both models to be so low?
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:12 pm
by Brent
cheezyWXguy wrote:Haris wrote:bubba hotep wrote:1st 1/3 of May?
There are some MASSIVE model disagreements . The euro and eps camp has still 1-3” of rain for Central and N TX while the gfs gefs camp have a 1/2” or so . Which solution do y’all think is more likely ???
I don't know which model camp to believe, but I will say, the GFS's shear profiles for NTX Friday night into Saturday are impressive. Large rounded hodographs, 0-3km SRH values above 500 m2/s2 at hour 138 in DFW. The major drawback to this event seems to be instability, according to both the GFS and Euro. The 12z Euro and 18z GFS also seem to be converging on the idea of a line of storms moving through at that time, but with such strong directional shear, I am reluctant to believe that activity wouldn't be discrete, or at least broken. I guess the majority of questions will be answered with time, but does anyone know why instability is forecast by both models to be so low?
i'm assuming time of day is keeping the parameters down... looks like an early morning event(plus it looks more like a big line/MCS atm). Not to say it couldn't be significant still(it is 5-6 days out and things look different by then), but that's my theory right now
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:43 am
by Ralph's Weather
Down to 34 at 440am it's gonna be a close call for a freeze.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:45 am
by Yukon Cornelius
Ralph's Weather wrote:Down to 34 at 440am it's gonna be a close call for a freeze.
yall beat us this morning. Only down to 39 here.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:02 am
by gboudx
Late week storm discussion from jeff:
A powerful storm system will arrive across TX late this week/early this weekend.
Extremely nice mid April weather will continue today and tomorrow before a weak cool front slides into the area on Wednesday and stalls near the coast on Thursday. Strong capping aloft during this period should prevent much in the way of thunderstorms, but a few scattered showers will be possible from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday over the region. The front will wash out late Thursday with onshore flow developing Thursday night.
Main forecast focus this week will be on the late week/weekend time period as a strong storm system looks poised to impact the region. It should be understood that we are still several days away from any impacts and the forecast will change, but decent global model consistency is pointing toward a very active period late Friday into much of Saturday over the area. Moisture values will rise to impressive mid April levels and the jet stream structure over SE TX looks mostly favorable for strong lifting along an advancing frontal boundary. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall look possible with this system given it will be further south than the recent systems to slide just NE of our area. This system deserves close watch as we move through the week.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:50 pm
by Haris
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:54 pm
by bubba hotep
Lol Where were these runs during the winter? New Euro Weeklies are below avg temp and above avg rain...
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:15 pm
by South Texas Storms
bubba hotep wrote:Lol Where were these runs during the winter? New Euro Weeklies are below avg temp and above avg rain...
To me, it's more important we see cooler and wetter weather in the spring so that we can keep the death ridge of summer away.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:37 pm
by weatherdude1108
South Texas Storms wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Lol Where were these runs during the winter? New Euro Weeklies are below avg temp and above avg rain...
To me, it's more important we see cooler and wetter weather in the spring so that we can keep the death ridge of summer away.
AMEN to that!
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:31 pm
by South Texas Storms
Potent storm system forecast to track eastward across the state this weekend bringing a heavy rain and severe threat. Surprised there isn't more chatter in here about it. SPC already has portions of central TX highlighted in the day 5 (Saturday) severe outlook.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:48 pm
by JDawg512
South Texas Storms wrote:Potent storm system forecast to track eastward across the state this weekend bringing a heavy rain and severe threat. Surprised there isn't more chatter in here about it. SPC already has portions of central TX highlighted in the day 5 (Saturday) severe outlook.
Yea I'm pretty interested in this coming up weekend system. Just wanted to get closer to the event before getting too excited.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:14 pm
by cheezyWXguy
South Texas Storms wrote:Potent storm system forecast to track eastward across the state this weekend bringing a heavy rain and severe threat. Surprised there isn't more chatter in here about it. SPC already has portions of central TX highlighted in the day 5 (Saturday) severe outlook.
Agreed, it's hard to ignore the shear profiles models have been showing since wednesday or thursday last week over central and north tx for friday night into saturday. Instability is virtually non-existent, except for a brief window where values jump to about 1500 j/kg, according to both the GFS and Euro. It seems that saturday's potential, along with the instability available, are likely to be significantly hampered by periodic waves of rain that would precede any potential severe event.
I have heard at various times in the past, particularly with winter-time severe episodes, where favorable wind shear and low level moisture are able to compensate for a lack of instability though, but I don't know much about those events. Is this the type of setup that might warrant a second glance in that regard, or will we be able to just enjoy the rain?
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:40 pm
by Brent
I'm expecting Saturday to be more of a heavy rain event at least up here but I'm definitely getting more intrigued
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:58 pm
by South Texas Storms
As of now it seems like more of a heavy rain threat in north TX and a severe threat in central TX. I'm guessing based on today's data, SPC would have the Marginal Risk area in DFW with the Slight Risk area down across SA, Austin, CS, and Houston.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:27 pm
by Cpv17
South Texas Storms wrote:As of now it seems like more of a heavy rain threat in north TX and a severe threat in central TX. I'm guessing based on today's data, SPC would have the Marginal Risk area in DFW with the Slight Risk area down across SA, Austin, CS, and Houston.
I have a question for you. The mets here in Houston are calling for 1-3” of rain across the area, but I don’t understand where they’re getting that from. The GFS is barely calling for anything across the area. I guess the Euro is different? I don’t have access to it.
