Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Whatever 91L turns into,it will produce a good deal of rain and squally weather so lets prepare for this system my friends.

[Gustywind]

91L continues to be very impressive... let's continue to keep a close eye on it.

[abajan]

Hey guys, I want to share with you this picture of one of the most dark and impressive skies I've seen over San Salvador, I took it a few minutes ago (sorry for the quality my cam is a little old)

Is this any better?



(First it was brightened a bit then I used a very handy program called Neat Image to get rid of the graininess. It could have looked even better if I had taken more time with it.)

[Macrocane]

Thanks abajan it does look better . I thought we were going to have heavy rains but it was moderate, the most intense rains fell north and west of San Salvador, right now new thunderstorms have developed in the central part of the country so maybe we're going to have more rain tonight, I will post some observations tomorrow.

[FireBird]

Abajan, u guys ready for this?
I will be in rush mode tomorrow to get home and get stuff done. it floods over here with normal rainfall. numerous areas of landslides still glaring on the road sides. getting workmen here is like trying to find gold. so all the work we'd hoped to finish is still undone, and that includes a leaking roof!!! aaagghhh! can't even get the trees cut. already last week a gusty wind broke one of our trees in half. this is gonna be quite an adventure!
Glad the met office has been warning people early. more time for me to get my own house in order. will keep you posted as i can. keep up the prep my windward friends.

[Gustywind]

Hey my carib friends be vigilant with 91L! This feature is growing fairly nice and a TD 21 is on the way even a TS Tomas given our pro mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe. This feature has gained much more latitude now near the 11N... always given Meteo-France Guadeloupe in their latest weather forecast this morning 6AM.
Looks like a first line of showers and tstorms is racing near Barbados...
Sat pic is definitely amazing looks like a cyclonic feature in our doorstep

[Gustywind]

From Stormcarib.com http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... nica.shtml

- Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert?...
By Conan Shillingford <nichs at hotmail.com>
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2010 05:45:41 +0000

Good Evening all!

The fringe effects of what is likely to be 'Tomas' have already begun pushing their way very near to the islands. Here in Dominica the odd shower has come by, however a lot more could 'grace' our Creole festivities over the week-end.
Indeed, this potential cyclone formation alert should have probably been issued long before since 91L seems intent on becoming a named system -i.e. TOMAS rather soon. Regardless of the change in this system's intensity; the coming day's weather etc. is almost certain to be very severe. Let's all remain vigilant and safe during this latter half of this hurricane season and may God give us the wisdom and strength to cope with whatever eventualities come our way.

God's Blessings and Good night.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Recon will go this afternoon to investigate 91L and may find a TD or TS so lets prepare for whatever forms.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD DEEP LAYERED MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUBTROPICAL JET SEGMENT OF 60-65 KNOT MAX WIND
PRESENTLY MOVING ALONG THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WHICH NOW
EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS
IS HELPING TO CREATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WITH THE LOCAL AREA PRESENTLY
IN RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET MAX. THIS PATTERN IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AN INVERTED ELONGATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA...
WHILE THE RECENTLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM SHARY WAS LOCATED NORTH
OF THE REGION NEAR 28.5 NORTH 65.0 WEST. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BASED ON LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN
MIAMI...TROPICAL STORM SHARY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PULL TO FURTHER
NORTH LATER TODAY...THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TONIGHT...AS IT WILL BE PICKED UP BY A POLAR TROUGH NOW EXITING
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES.

FURTHER EAST...A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW NOW NEARING 54 WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND CROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACCOMPANIED BY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE... IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUED TO DIMINISH AS SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA. BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND APPROACHING THE EAST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. LOCAL EFFECTS...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...ALTHOUGH SOME EARLY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER... ON SUNDAY EXPECT ENHANCED CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
THE INTERACTION OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT A FAIRLY WET
PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
FRAGMENTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA EVEN TRAILING THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...
BUT BY MID WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
TROPICAL/ITCZ MOISTURE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRESENTLY FORECAST TO DEVELOP EVEN MORE...AND MEANDER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL GUIDANCE AND SEE
HOW THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ
THIS MORNING...WHILE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TNCM..TKPK...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ AS A BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST 29/13Z. AFTER 29/16Z...EXPECT
SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF PR...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR OR
EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ FROM
29/16Z-29/22Z...AS LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 87 78 / 30 30 30 40
STT 86 77 88 78 / 50 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

From Crownweather:

I am pretty concerned about the future of Invest 91-L and what kind of impact it may have on the islands in the Caribbean. As of this morning, Invest 91-L was located about 600 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. This system continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms and satellite imagery shows it becoming better and better organized with each passing hour. It seems likely that Invest 91-L is well on its way to becoming Tropical Depression #21 and then Tropical Storm Tomas.

Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon and we will likely see then whether we have a tropical depression or a tropical storm. Satellite wind analysis shows that the circulation associated with Invest 91-L is close to being closed off and I suspect we will see Invest 91-L upgraded to a tropical depression either by later today or at the latest Saturday morning.

After that, I think we will see slow, but steady intensification as Invest 91-L has a pretty big circulation which slows down the intensification rate. In addition, there may be some dry air entrainment from the north coast of South America this weekend which could slow down the intensification process.

With that said, I think this system may very well be a tropical storm as it tracks in between Tabago and Barbados and then across the Windward Islands during Saturday and Saturday night. Interests in these areas should be prepared for tropical storm conditions during Saturday and Saturday night.

As we get into next week, this system’s potential will increase dramatically as it gets into the central Caribbean by Tuesday and Wednesday where environmental conditions will be very favorable for intensification. It should be noted that the European model shows little development over the next couple of days and shows more robust intensification by the middle part of next week. Also, the GFS model has been consistently forecasting a strong tropical cyclone in the central Caribbean by Wednesday. In fact, the GFS model forecasts a scenario that would bring hurricane conditions to Jamaica by next Friday and next Saturday and then for this system to impact Hispaniola next weekend.

Looking at a couple of the other model guidance members. The Canadian model forecasts Invest 91-L to track over the Windward Islands tonight into early Saturday and then track west-northwestward across the eastern Caribbean this weekend and intensify as it does so. The Canadian model ultimately forecasts this system to track a shade east of Jamaica on Wednesday morning and then over extreme eastern Cuba Thursday morning before being wisked out into the open Atlantic late next week.

The UKMET model forecasts Invest 91-L to actually track over northern Trinidad late tonight and then track into the southeastern Caribbean on Saturday. The UKMET model then forecasts a westward track and forecasts this to be a fairly strong storm about halfway between Jamaica and Panama by Tuesday evening.

The HWRF model is more complicated and forecasts Invest 91-L to track to a position about halfway between Tobago and Barbados by Saturday morning as a tropical storm and then track across the island of St. Lucia late Saturday as a tropical storm. Once in the eastern Caribbean, the HWRF model forecasts Invest 91-L to slow way down and intensify next week bringing the potential for tropical storm conditions to much of the Lesser Antilles during Sunday as this system tracks northwest or even north-northwest. The HWRF model then forecasts a period of tropical storm conditions for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during Monday through Monday night before this system is forecast to shift back to the south.

The Hurricane track consensus models forecast a track that would take Invest 91-L across the Windward Islands just north of Grenada during Saturday morning and then a west-northwest slow moving track across the eastern Caribbean next week so that by Wednesday, it is forecast to be just south of the Dominican Republic.

As I have already mentioned, I think this system will track halfway between Tobago and Barbados and then across the Windward Islands bringing tropical storm conditions during Saturday into Saturday night as far north as Barbados and St. Lucia and as far south as Trinidad and Tobago. After that, slow, but steady intensification is likely early next week as this system tracks west-northwest across the eastern and then the central Caribbean by Wednesday. More robust intensification is very possible thereafter and this system may pose a significant threat to Jamaica, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola by late next week.

So, all interests in the Windward Islands, Trinidad, Tobago and Barbados should closely monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday into Saturday night. In addition, all interests in the Caribbean, especially those in Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic should keep close tabs on this system. I will be keeping a close eye on this potential and will keep you all updated.

[BZSTORM]

wow 91L certanly got its act together in 24hrs, pls keep safe all of you in the islands.
Its been raining constant since 8pm last night with a few heavy squalls thrown in Southern Belize. Electricity is still not restored to all areas affected by H.Richard especially some of the rual areas, allot of the terrain that Ricahrd transversed is swamp and flooded, linesmen have to wade out in 5ft of water to reach some of the downed poles, There is a big food & clothes drive on in Belize through the red cross to get supplies to the most needy who as always are the poorest. Clean up of trees, zinc etc continues in Belize City, Dangriga, Belmopan and rural areas. Some of the hardest hit coastal areas are hard to access as the road at this time of year floods regular and its has to be boat access only. Electrical supplier linesman have been doing excelent job working long hours trying to resore power. Yesterday the DSL internet and Digicell service as well as Smart cell service was down countrywide from 11am - 7pm due to damage to the main digital telecommunications fibre optic, which needed repair, hats of the the techies as last time that cable was cut we had no internet etc for a day. At least for 3 days after Richard it was dry & warm (no rain) so those ppl cleaning mud and water from their homes had chance to dry them out a bit, rain today for whole country forecast. I hear thunder rolling out to sea right now, and we had a spectacular thunder & lightning show yesterday afternoon.

[cycloneye]

wow 91L certanly got its act together in 24hrs, pls keep safe all of you in the islands.
Its been raining constant since 8pm last night with a few heavy squalls thrown in Southern Belize. Electricity is still not restored to all areas affected by H.Richard especially some of the rual areas, allot of the terrain that Ricahrd transversed is swamp and flooded, linesmen have to wade out in 5ft of water to reach some of the downed poles, There is a big food & clothes drive on in Belize through the red cross to get supplies to the most needy who as always are the poorest. Clean up of trees, zinc etc continues in Belize City, Dangriga, Belmopan and rural areas. Some of the hardest hit coastal areas are hard to access as the road at this time of year floods regular and its has to be boat access only. Electrical supplier linesman have been doing excelent job working long hours trying to resore power. Yesterday the DSL internet and Digicell service as well as Smart cell service was down countrywide from 11am - 7pm due to damage to the main digital telecommunications fibre optic, which needed repair, hats of the the techies as last time that cable was cut we had no internet etc for a day. At least for 3 days after Richard it was dry & warm (no rain) so those ppl cleaning mud and water from their homes had chance to dry them out a bit, rain today for whole country forecast. I hear thunder rolling out to sea right now, and we had a spectacular thunder & lightning show yesterday afternoon.

Great to see that things are returning to normal and that no lose of life occured.

[abajan]

Abajan, u guys ready for this?
I will be in rush mode tomorrow to get home and get stuff done. it floods over here with normal rainfall. numerous areas of landslides still glaring on the road sides. getting workmen here is like trying to find gold. so all the work we'd hoped to finish is still undone, and that includes a leaking roof!!! aaagghhh! can't even get the trees cut. already last week a gusty wind broke one of our trees in half. this is gonna be quite an adventure!
Glad the met office has been warning people early. more time for me to get my own house in order. will keep you posted as i can. keep up the prep my windward friends.

Our met office has been doing just the opposite. After waiting an eternity, they finally decided to issue a bulletin about 91L at 10:00 AM today. How wonderful. I guess now traffic on the roads is going to be pure pandemonium with everyone rushing to buy last minute supplies and so on.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST...AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY...THEN MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGIONAL
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO AND PRODUCED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MIMIC-TPW SHOWED EXTREMELY HIGH PWAT
VALUES (GREATER THAN 2.5 INCHES) IN ASSOCIATION TO THE VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57 WEST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST...AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS EARLY SATURDAY...
THEN MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGIONAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE FA LATE SATURDAY WHEN THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACH TO THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING...TRACK
AND INTENSITY ALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...LOCAL RESIDENTS
AND TOURISTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM
DURING THIS WEEKEND...AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TJSJ...AND TJBQ AT
LEAST THROUGH 29/16Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. VCSH
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS TIST..TIST...TKPK...AND TNCM. WINDS
WILL MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND ANEGADA
PASSAGE TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS...ALONG WITH SQUALLY WEATHER...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ANEGADA
PASSAGE WHEN THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

[abajan]

Below are both the weather bulletin and forecast for Barbados:




Source: http://www.cdera.org/weather/barbados/index.php

Presently, it’s just overcast with some cooling breezes but I will keep you guys updated.

[Gustywind]

Below are both the weather bulletin and forecast for Barbados:




Source: http://www.cdera.org/weather/barbados/index.php

Presently, it’s just overcast with some cooling breezes but I will keep you guys updated.

Thanks Abajan we appreciate! Be safe and dry.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
2100 UTC FRI OCT 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND GRENADA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.

[msbee]

Below are both the weather bulletin and forecast for Barbados:




Source: http://www.cdera.org/weather/barbados/index.php

Presently, it’s just overcast with some cooling breezes but I will keep you guys updated.

I just flew out of Barbados. coming in from Grenada, this morning. Looks like I got out just in time.
Hope you guys down there will be OK.
Keep us informed.

[abajan]

It’s raining lightly with some gusty breezes and there was a flash of lightning a few minutes ago. As dusk settled into nightfall, lots of low clouds started rolling in accompanied by a very light drizzle.

[BZSTORM]

It’s raining lightly with some gusty breezes and there was a flash of lightning a few minutes ago. As dusk settled into nightfall, lots of low clouds started rolling in accompanied by a very light drizzle.

keep safe Abajan - I have friends in living in Barbados too

[cycloneye]

This is getting very serious.8 PM special advisory.


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* GRENADA
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER THIS EVENING.