Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Rain and showers are falling nicely here since 1 hour. Yellow alert have been requiered for Martinica due to a risk of strong showers and thunderstorms as an area of showers and tstorms is located south of Martinica.
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

[abajan]

Heavy, at times torrential, rain over St Lucia today after showers yesterday. The East Coast road is closed again because of river flooding south of Castries at Bexon; floods in Castries and news of a bridge down and a child drowned in Balata. Heaven only knows what is happening in the South but I read elsewhere the road to Soufriere is closed again because of further landslides...

I heard about this on our news earlier. It’s pretty bad, especially coming on the heels of Tomas.

[cycloneye]

Still,no letdown by GFS on the wet scenario for the Eastern Caribbean as another run comes out with that and a little more See the 18z run at loop and see what I mean by a little more,which I continue to not buy into as no other model shows a cyclone.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM, invest 94L came to life once again today,but it wont have a chance to develop into a TC because of conditions not so favorable.But rain is the main threat for you over there.

[msbee]

sad news from St. Lucia which is still trying to recover from Tomas
They are having severe flooding again and a nine year old boy has drowned.

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Flo ... d-St-Lucia

you can also read the stormcarib reports.

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 PM AST THU NOV 18 2010

.UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS...EXCEPT RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY
TO MOVE MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND ISLANDS ADJOINING THE ATLANTIC
INTO THE SCATTERED SHOWER CATEGORY. A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
CULEBRA...CONSIDERING THAT THE SOUNDING IS STRONGLY CAPPED WITH AN
8 DEGREE CELSIUS INVERSION BETWEEN 8400 AND 9900 FEET WITH VERY
DRY AIR BEGINNING AT 6600 FEET. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING
ONSHORE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND BRINGING LIGHT AMOUNTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE FOR A WHILE
TONIGHT AS CLOUD COVERAGE TO OUR NORTH INCREASES. ONLY VARIATION
TO THIS PATTERN BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
IS A SLIGHT DRYING TREND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ON SATURDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
402 AM AST FRI NOV 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVR THE NEXT 24-48
HRS AS POLAR PERTURBATIONS MOVE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. A CDFNT WILL
PUSH THRU THE AREA SUN NIGHT. STRONG SFC RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA NEXT WEEK BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLD TO SCT EARLY MORNING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS UNDER A NE SFC WIND FLOW WHILE A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CAP INHIBITS AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A CDFNT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHRA CONVERAGE
TO NORTHEAST PR AND THE USVI. THERE IS SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER
SUN AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY HAVE LEFT
IT OUT FROM THE FCST FOR NOW. FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA MON
WITH WINDS LIKELY TO BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE ASPECT BEHIND THIS
FRONT.

STRONG SFC-H85 RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA INCREASING THE PRES
GRADIENT/WINDS. MODELS SHOW 20-30 KT WINDS BETWEEN SFC-5KFT AND
THESE ARE SUPPORTED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS SO AM
CONFIDENT ON WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY MON-TUE NIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH WIND ADVZY CRITERIA EVEN AT MSL. THE STRONG
TRADES AND THE COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
NMRS/FREQ NIGHTIME SHOWERS. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS. BROAD TROF ALOFT TO DOMINATE THE
WRN ATLC MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND ON WITH A NARROW ELONGATED RIDGE
TO DOMINATE SFC TO 700 MB.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS IN LLVL ENE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS. A
VCSH OR -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TJSJ AND TJBQ THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING TO 7 FT TOMORROW ACROSS
AMZ710 HOWEVER MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN THESE CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN. WINDS AND SEAS HOWEVER INCREASE EVENTUALLY ACROSS ALL
WATERS BEHIND A CDFNT SUN NIGHT. VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 20+ KT WINDS AND 9-11 FT SEAS IN
NE SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 76 / 20 10 10 20
STT 84 74 87 77 / 0 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

This is a correspondant from Dominica posting at http://stormcarib.com/ reporting about the rain falling in that island.

The Heavens have opened!
By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2010 03:26:42 -0800

Yesterday afternoon the rain came down in Roseau like a blanket, grey sky, vision was bad and everyone luckily was driving with their headlights on! I decided to leave Roseau around 4.0.p.m to get home in safety. I chose to go along the coast road and it was pretty good - not too many stones in the road from the cliffs! It can be quite scary driving along that way sometimes. The rain continued into the night and in the middle of the night we were woken up by the sound of the wind howling around the house and the rain beating on our roof! A squall indeed! We had a break this morning from the rain to take the dogs for their usual canter - and as I write this it is raining hard and the sky is very grey.

The weather coming towards us from the Atlantic looks really awful more rain! We really feel for St. Lucia how much more rain can that island take! It looks as if there is no let up for a while! It is bad enough for Dominica to have lots of rain, our rivers swell and we often have small landslides. There is a patch in the Antrim valley where the new road has been built that seems unstable, so this extra deluge is not good. The home strait of this hurricane season seems to show no mercy!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 PM AST FRI NOV 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS AS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF PERTURBATIONS MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BANDS
AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW
SHOWERS. DID INTRODUCE AND AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. WEAKENING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH RIDGE RELAXING
ITS GRIP A BIT AT THE SAME TIME AND AFOREMENTIONED PASSING
PERTURBATIONS...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS IT PASSES BY. LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN INCREASING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA TO OUR NORTH...BUILDS TOWARD AND INTO THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OR LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TIST.
LLVL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NE AT 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. THESE
INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL RESULT IN BUILDING AND INCREASINGLY
HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BEGIN FOR SOME OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN EXPAND THROUGH TIME.

[Gustywind]

SAINTE-ANNE
The fishers consider post Tomas damage
Déborah MATHEY France-French West Indies Guadeloupe 16.11.2010
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 101877.php

Without declaration of disaster, the fishers are afraid that their application for aid to compensate for these losses remains without effect.
Fishermen affected by the cyclone. Small fishing port of Galbas Friday, their faces were not smiling. If workplace this morning all fishermen busy normally, the presence of nets crammed on the pontoon and detritus in mess was the less unusual. "It has lost nets." "Those at sea have suffered damage following the passage of Tomas," said George Egerton, President of the association of fishers of Sainte-Anne. "Ca has surprised everyone", admitted the professional of the sea. Although the weekend of October 30 yellow alertness level has announced (see our Edition from October 29), the effects of the swell took professionals from the sea by surprise. To estimate the damage, net was hauled to be examined and retrieve can be. "There are already four well damaged", confirmed a professional Sea deals usually nets. "I've attacked another and it was also torn." With the assessment of the damage being asked the question of the cost. "For a new NET 500 m should be between 5 and 6 sheets", explained Kenny. "And a tablecloth is approximately 75 euros. Moreover, according to the men of the sea, traps on the edge of reef have also suffered from the effects swell.
"It begs not."
"The weather had foreseen that it would be for St. Lucia, Martinique, said George Egerton. And a fisherman has at least ten nets. "Even though he had the time to remove one or two, it could not remove everything." To this hazard, the President expressed his desire to see fishermen benefit help. "At administrator level, it has been said that fishermen had had lost none", has regretted it. "French State must deal with his children." It begs but it seems that there are millions who will depart to the France because they have not been used then if you could have a little... ", wished to George Egerton, smiling. "When you lose a mesh, you lose profits" concluded more serious human. Pending a providential sum and assistance would be welcome, professionals of the sea have rolled up their sleeves to make cleaning the site of Galbas and equipment. A collective have mounted with sailors from Gosier to escalate their grievances to the Union which would provide the relay at the political actors. A process whose outcome would be more than uncertain.
Jacques Kancel reminded the fishermen that this kind of damage were step within the purview of the General Council and whether aid was awarded, it would be as a last resort. -THEY SAID...
JACQUES KANCEL, Chairman port SAINTE - ANNE at the General Council: seek assistance from the General Council?
Passing on the port, Jacques Kancel insisted on the need to play the insurance and assistance of the General Council would potentially feasible as a last resort.
GEORGES MATHURINE, Secretary of the ASSOCIATION of the sea - fishermen SAINTE - ANNE nets: burnt or thrown?
"Should be considered a write-up of the nets used." They can be burned or forwarded to the burn because they contain hazardous materials. "This is a problem common to all ports and that would be easy to resolve: should the nets are recovered by distributors. -A port on track?
Jacques Kancel visit to the fishing port of Galbas Friday was not fortuitous.
So far, in consultation with professionals from the sea, it is to choose the location of the ice machine.
Since the visit of the President of the General Council may 6 port Sainte-Anne Board Chair held to emphasize the progress made. A pontoon 16 seat capacity has been created, dead bodies will be added shortly, stalls selling have been repaired and water and electricity would no longer a problem. The ice machine should soon ceaselessly. "Yes, there have been advances" acknowledged George Egerton. "But this is not yet perfect."

[Gustywind]

Rain boils motorists franceantilles.fr 19.11.2010
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... -92746.php

RN5 to Rivière Salée. Photo CD
Flooded roads, corks, endless, wet episode puts motorists nerves stretched.

Record CAP since the end of the morning on the RN5. As for each remaining wet episodes, the river overflowed on RN5 at Rivière Salée. Result, hours of bottling for motorists stranded on the highway.

Salt River knows many floods in areas traditionally feet in the water.

The François is also seriously affected by the rising waters in the borough. Many schools have been closed, route is cut at Bellevue height due to talus. Finally, the municipality decided to cancel a discovery walk should organize Sunday?

[cycloneye]

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 PM AST FRI NOV 19 2010

...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND...

.MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. THESE INCREASING TRADE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN BUILDING AND INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SEAS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

AMZ710-200430-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SC.Y.0075.101120T1000Z-101123T2200Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
430 PM AST FRI NOV 19 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM AST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM AST
TUESDAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

[chrisjslucia]

Rain boils motorists franceantilles.fr 19.11.2010
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?

This is a literal translation, but I do wonder if something is being lost in the process? Of course, there are some who would say boiling is a fitting end for motorists

[abajan]

Rain boils motorists franceantilles.fr 19.11.2010
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?

This is a literal translation, but I do wonder if something is being lost in the process? Of course, there are some who would say boiling is a fitting end for motorists

Definitely lost in translation!
That part about hours of bottling is also suspect. I’m picturing motorists trying their best to bottle as much of the water as possible but somehow doubt that’s what the author was trying to portray.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
908 PM AST FRI NOV 19 2010

.UPDATE...CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING INTO LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS...EVEN AS SHOWERS ONCE OVER GUANICA THIS AFTERNOON
ARE NOW MOVING FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS
SUBSIDENCE JUST AHEAD OF A SLOWING COLD FRONT DRYS THE AIR ABOVE 5
THOUSAND FEET. SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THEN INCREASE AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND LINGER WELL AFTER IT PASSES. MINOR
CHANGES TO GRIDS DAY 3 THROUGH 5.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Cold front to move thru NE Caribbean tommorow.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST SAT NOV 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF PERTURBATIONS MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA NEXT WEEK... BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DEPICTED ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES
OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE TPW MIMIC...SUGGEST
THAT A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BANDS AND PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA...EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TO A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FA. LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN INCREASING TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO OUR
NORTH...BUILDS TOWARD AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...
VCSH OR -SHRA POSSIBLE USVI AND WINDWARD SIDE OF PR TODAY/SUN.
LLVL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NE AT 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. THESE INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BUILDING AND INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BEGIN FOR SOME OF THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPAND THROUGH TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 84 76 / 20 30 40 40
STT 86 74 86 75 / 20 10 50 50

[cycloneye]

These are images of radar and sattelite that I saved when Hurricane Tomas moved thru the Windward Islands. My opinion about the winds is ,they were a little bit stronger than what NHC said based on what I have seen in the reports from St Vincent and St Lucia.Let's see when the post season report on Tomas is released,if they increase or not the intensity at that time. Visit when you can the 2010 Tropical Cyclone Reports thread at Talking Tropics forum to see the Tomas report when it is released.

[abajan]

Kinda windy in Barbados this morning. Quite nice, actually. Looks like there will be some hit or miss showers as well today.