Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak 2008
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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wbug1
Re: Tornado outbreak again today?
NWS took the severe TS warn down on the TX cell. Well, fine.
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Tornado outbreak again today?
wbug1 wrote:NWS took the severe TS warn down on the TX cell. Well, fine.
cheer up
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
811 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN NOLAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 900 PM CDT
* AT 807 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HYLTON...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
NOLAN BY 820 PM CDT...
VIEW AND LAKE ABILENE BY 855 PM CDT...
LAT...LON 3235 9987 3209 9986 3209 10028 3233 10028
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 223DEG 15KT 3216 10017
$$
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000
WUUS54 KOUN 250059
SVROUN
TXC155-197-275-250200-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0446.080525T0057Z-080525T0200Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
757 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL FOARD COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN KNOX COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 900 PM CDT
* AT 757 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRUSCOTT...MOVING NORTH AT
38 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE
LIKELY.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE COPPERS BREAK STATE PARK...
CROWELL...MARGARET...MEDICINE MOUND...QUANAH AND TRUSCOTT.
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brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
Well, that one crazy freaking supercell has finally died down some. TOR Warning traded in for a SVR Warning:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC113-117-250215-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0314.080525T0121Z-080525T0215Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
821 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* UNTIL 915 PM CDT
* AT 812 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 22 MILES WEST OF RALSTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 16 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...RALSTON.
STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 1 AM.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC113-117-250215-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0314.080525T0121Z-080525T0215Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
821 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* UNTIL 915 PM CDT
* AT 812 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 22 MILES WEST OF RALSTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 16 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...RALSTON.
STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 1 AM.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 805 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF HALLOCK
MINNESOTA TO 65 MILES SOUTH OF FARGO NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 348...WW 349...WW
350...WW 351...WW 352...WW 353...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS INVOF ABR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING/DEVELOPING NNEWD THIS EVENING...IN EXIT
REGION OF FAST MOVING JET STREAK. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES...PRESENCE OF
EXISTING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND NEWD MOTION OF FAVORABLE DEEP
WIND FIELD/ZONE OF ASCENT WITH JET STREAK SUGGEST A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
...CORFIDI
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 805 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF HALLOCK
MINNESOTA TO 65 MILES SOUTH OF FARGO NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 348...WW 349...WW
350...WW 351...WW 352...WW 353...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS INVOF ABR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING/DEVELOPING NNEWD THIS EVENING...IN EXIT
REGION OF FAST MOVING JET STREAK. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES...PRESENCE OF
EXISTING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND NEWD MOTION OF FAVORABLE DEEP
WIND FIELD/ZONE OF ASCENT WITH JET STREAK SUGGEST A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.
...CORFIDI
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND A SMALL PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 830 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 348...WW 349...WW
350...WW 351...WW 352...WW 353...WW 354...
DISCUSSION...SCTD STRONG TO SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG DRY
LINE RETREATING WNW ACROSS WW. GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND DESPITE MODEST DEEP SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24020.
...CORFIDI
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND A SMALL PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 830 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 348...WW 349...WW
350...WW 351...WW 352...WW 353...WW 354...
DISCUSSION...SCTD STRONG TO SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG DRY
LINE RETREATING WNW ACROSS WW. GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND DESPITE MODEST DEEP SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24020.
...CORFIDI
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cincyforecast
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 4
- Joined: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:10 pm
Re:
cincyforecast wrote:Hey 'all!
There is a cell north of Enid, OK that is showing some decent rotation. If this continues, a tornado warning will be needed.
-Trevor
Oh no - just wanted to open a poll on TOR warning for OK in the next 20 min. OK sounding from 0 z would support that.
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cincyforecast
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 4
- Joined: Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:10 pm
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0901 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN SD...ERN NEB...WRN IA...SWRN MN.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 348...349...
VALID 250201Z - 250300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 348...349...CONTINUES.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF SVR TSTM WW
OVER SOME PORTIONS OF THIS REGION THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE TORNADO
WWS MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...OR CANCELED EARLY.
SFC-BASED SVR POTENTIAL IS FCST TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING REMAINDER
EVENING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...AS DIABATIC COOLING CONTRIBUTES TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SBCINH ALONG AND E OF ERN PORTIONS WWS.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL/ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING REMAINDER EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS WRN IA AND SWRN
MN...WITH HAIL BEING PRIMARY CONCERN. MAIN POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN GENTLY CURVING N-S ARC CORRESPONDING TO
EWD-MOVING 850 MB CONFLUENCE ZONE...W OF WHICH LLJ WILL VEER TO STG
WLY COMPONENT. E OF THAT TRANSITION...SLY-SSWLY LLJ WILL ADVECT
NARROW PLUME OF RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE SAMPLED BY TOP RAOB...AND
LIKELY EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS IA BETWEEN OAX-DVN SOUNDINGS. 850 MB
DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 10-13 DEG C ARE EXPECTED...WITH TIME SERIES
OF RUC FCST SOUNDINGS REASONABLY INDICATING MOISTENING IN 800-900 MB
LAYER THROUGH 08Z. AS THIS OCCURS...ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 1500
J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP OVER IA...WEAKENING NWD OVER MN.
..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2008
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
41269610 42299731 43929803 45449802 45799665 45339422
43389400 41939483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0901 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN SD...ERN NEB...WRN IA...SWRN MN.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 348...349...
VALID 250201Z - 250300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 348...349...CONTINUES.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF SVR TSTM WW
OVER SOME PORTIONS OF THIS REGION THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE TORNADO
WWS MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...OR CANCELED EARLY.
SFC-BASED SVR POTENTIAL IS FCST TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING REMAINDER
EVENING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...AS DIABATIC COOLING CONTRIBUTES TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SBCINH ALONG AND E OF ERN PORTIONS WWS.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL/ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING REMAINDER EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS WRN IA AND SWRN
MN...WITH HAIL BEING PRIMARY CONCERN. MAIN POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN GENTLY CURVING N-S ARC CORRESPONDING TO
EWD-MOVING 850 MB CONFLUENCE ZONE...W OF WHICH LLJ WILL VEER TO STG
WLY COMPONENT. E OF THAT TRANSITION...SLY-SSWLY LLJ WILL ADVECT
NARROW PLUME OF RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE SAMPLED BY TOP RAOB...AND
LIKELY EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS IA BETWEEN OAX-DVN SOUNDINGS. 850 MB
DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 10-13 DEG C ARE EXPECTED...WITH TIME SERIES
OF RUC FCST SOUNDINGS REASONABLY INDICATING MOISTENING IN 800-900 MB
LAYER THROUGH 08Z. AS THIS OCCURS...ELEVATED MUCAPES AROUND 1500
J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP OVER IA...WEAKENING NWD OVER MN.
..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2008
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...
41269610 42299731 43929803 45449802 45799665 45339422
43389400 41939483
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ND AND NWRN MN.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 352...354...
VALID 250226Z - 250430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 352...354...CONTINUES.
NARROW ARC OF TSTMS -- ONE TSTM WITHIN WHICH HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TORNADOES WITHIN PAST 1.5-2 HOURS OVER
MORTON COUNTY - IS FCST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL ND. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY -- IN ENVIRONMENT OF MRGL INSTABILITY BUT
STG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR. BIS VWP INDICATES 0-1 KM
SRH 250-300 J/KG...AND 46 KT 0-3 KM VECTOR SHEAR -- IN VERY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO FRONTAL ZONE. OTHER TSTMS ACROSS SERN ND AND EXTREME
NERN SD STILL MAY PRODUCE SVR GUSTS/HAIL...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
NEWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SFC-BASED LIFTED
PARCELS.
SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DEEP LOW -- ESSENTIALLY STACKED WITH
MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTER -- OVER E-CENTRAL MT...OCCLUDED FRONT
ESEWD TOWARD BIS THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE AND TRANSITIONING TO PACIFIC
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE COMBINATION SWD ACROSS SD. OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS REGION...BEHIND WHICH DRIER
LOW-MIDLEVEL AIR AND MORE VEERED SFC FLOW WILL DRASTICALLY REDUCE
ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL AND CAN JUSTIFY WW CLEARANCE.
..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2008
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
49009534 45889533 46000104 47710227 47759897 49079882
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ND AND NWRN MN.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 352...354...
VALID 250226Z - 250430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 352...354...CONTINUES.
NARROW ARC OF TSTMS -- ONE TSTM WITHIN WHICH HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TORNADOES WITHIN PAST 1.5-2 HOURS OVER
MORTON COUNTY - IS FCST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL ND. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY -- IN ENVIRONMENT OF MRGL INSTABILITY BUT
STG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR. BIS VWP INDICATES 0-1 KM
SRH 250-300 J/KG...AND 46 KT 0-3 KM VECTOR SHEAR -- IN VERY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO FRONTAL ZONE. OTHER TSTMS ACROSS SERN ND AND EXTREME
NERN SD STILL MAY PRODUCE SVR GUSTS/HAIL...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
NEWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SFC-BASED LIFTED
PARCELS.
SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DEEP LOW -- ESSENTIALLY STACKED WITH
MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTER -- OVER E-CENTRAL MT...OCCLUDED FRONT
ESEWD TOWARD BIS THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE AND TRANSITIONING TO PACIFIC
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE COMBINATION SWD ACROSS SD. OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS REGION...BEHIND WHICH DRIER
LOW-MIDLEVEL AIR AND MORE VEERED SFC FLOW WILL DRASTICALLY REDUCE
ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL AND CAN JUSTIFY WW CLEARANCE.
..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2008
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
49009534 45889533 46000104 47710227 47759897 49079882
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 353...
VALID 250234Z - 250330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 353 CONTINUES.
DISCRETE TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS N-CNTRL OK MAINLY INVOF GRANT COUNTY
AS OF 0225Z. SUBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THIS STORM HAS LIFTED
NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM ROGER MILLS TO MAYES
COUNTIES. AS SUCH...EARLIER TORNADIC THREAT HAS NOW PRIMARILY
EVOLVED INTO LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LENDING TO
STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES NEAR 3500 J/KG IN 00Z OUN RAOB/. OVERALL
STORM PROPAGATION REMAINS EWD...BUT WITH SLIGHT NWD SHIFT TO THE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL LLJ IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OVERTLY INCREASE...30-40 KT S/SWLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN EXPANDING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INTO SRN KS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF
THIS OCCURS...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE IN
WRN OK. THUS FAR...ATTEMPTS ACROSS CADDO/WASHITA COUNTIES HAVE
REMAINED RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AFTER FINE LINE/MOISTURE SURGE PUSHED
WWD. HOWEVER...A SLOW INCREASE IN THE LLJ AND CORRESPONDING MOIST
INFLUX MAY STILL YIELD ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WRN
PORTION OF WW 353 PRIOR TO 06Z.
..GRAMS.. 05/25/2008
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
37729703 37689555 37339500 36749503 36449547 36119640
36019729 36059811 36419852 37129840 37439812
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 353...
VALID 250234Z - 250330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 353 CONTINUES.
DISCRETE TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS N-CNTRL OK MAINLY INVOF GRANT COUNTY
AS OF 0225Z. SUBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THIS STORM HAS LIFTED
NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM ROGER MILLS TO MAYES
COUNTIES. AS SUCH...EARLIER TORNADIC THREAT HAS NOW PRIMARILY
EVOLVED INTO LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LENDING TO
STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES NEAR 3500 J/KG IN 00Z OUN RAOB/. OVERALL
STORM PROPAGATION REMAINS EWD...BUT WITH SLIGHT NWD SHIFT TO THE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL LLJ IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OVERTLY INCREASE...30-40 KT S/SWLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN EXPANDING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INTO SRN KS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF
THIS OCCURS...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE IN
WRN OK. THUS FAR...ATTEMPTS ACROSS CADDO/WASHITA COUNTIES HAVE
REMAINED RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AFTER FINE LINE/MOISTURE SURGE PUSHED
WWD. HOWEVER...A SLOW INCREASE IN THE LLJ AND CORRESPONDING MOIST
INFLUX MAY STILL YIELD ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WRN
PORTION OF WW 353 PRIOR TO 06Z.
..GRAMS.. 05/25/2008
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
37729703 37689555 37339500 36749503 36449547 36119640
36019729 36059811 36419852 37129840 37439812
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wall_cloud
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:I would not be totally shocked if one of the storms was an EF5 - remember, all it takes is to completely blow away a strong structure.
that is not an accurate statement. The NWS survey teams take building types, methods and conditions into account. In other words, if a POS shotgun shack house on cinder blocks is blown away, it doesn't earn the same rating that a well built brick home on a concrete foundation with hurricane clips would receive.
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wall_cloud
- Professional-Met
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Re: Re:
Bunkertor wrote:cincyforecast wrote:Hey 'all!
There is a cell north of Enid, OK that is showing some decent rotation. If this continues, a tornado warning will be needed.
-Trevor
Oh no - just wanted to open a poll on TOR warning for OK in the next 20 min. OK sounding from 0 z would support that.
The sounding would support a TOR warning? explain...
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