Florida Weather

[AdamFirst]

[FireRat]

Ouch!

[cycloneye]

Here is a waterspout that occured in Tampa.

[gsytch]

I'd say it was healthy based on the damage seen! But we did receive a lot of rain here in W Pasco... much needed rains!

Squall line appears to be healthy as it enters in from the Gulf. Everyone across Central Florida should see a bit of rain from this.

[NDG]

Much needed rains in Orlando today. A couple of days of near average temps before temps cool down Friday into Monday. Compared to the 89 deg high from last Saturday this weekend's high temps of near 60 degs will feel very cold, especially if it stays cloudy all day Friday & Saturday. Morning low temps should not be any colder than the Arctic shot from a couple of weeks ago, so no threat to the Citrus.
There could be some widespread frost Monday morning if the surface high settles into the Peninsula Sunday night.

[NDG]

This morning models still show for winter to come to the FL Peninsula on the first day of Meteorological Spring, lol.

There is still some diferences between the GFS & Euro, with the GFS trending colder once again for morning lows early next week, the Euro still persistent of not so cold for the Peninsula.
But all in all get ready for a fairly chilly, cloudy & rainy at times weekend here in FL, tourists are in for a shock, lol.

[NDG]

Snow flurries possibly making it to the ground in the Tampa area Sunday morning? If surface temps get cold enough, there is a possibility, IMO.

Per the 18z GFS:

[northjaxpro]

We have been following the development of the very anomalous and deep 500 mb upper level trough across the Eastern U.S. since last week. Both models have been spot on advertising this for the past seven days and forecasting the evolution of the negative NAO. The GFS continues its consistency with bringing ample moisture in the mid levels into the Southeast U.S. and to portions of the Florida peninsula this weekend. The Euro continues to not be as robust with the moisture coming into the region. As discussed yesterday, the big player this weekend will be a very potent cold core upper Low which will dive down the base of the amplifying upper trough from the Plains into the Deep South. This feature will bring an extremely cold pocket of air in the upper atmosphere across the region. Late this evening, I have taken a look at the latest GFS and Euro runs and here are my thoughts on the latest trends.

The GFS continues to bring more moisture to the Southeast U.S. and Florida peninsula, as has been the trend with its runs all week. As a matter of fact, if you follow the GFS runs, the 850 mb temperatures fall to around -5 degrees Celsius down across the North Florida region by late Saturday into Sunday. This is very impressive by any stretch of the imagination, let alone for the beginning of March.

Now, I definitely think that the cold core upper Low will have such dynamic forcing aloft to possibly bring about some showers developing over the Gulf of Mexico and moving onshore this weekend. This would be due to extremely cold air aloft moving over relatively milder/warmer waters of the GOM. At this point, I would have to see tomorrow's runs to see if the chance of seeing any flurries across Brooksville south to Tampa will have any chance to materialize. If it were to happen at all, as the 18Z GFS indicated, I would give Brooksville the best chance of seeing that happen due to the cold air drainage in that area. Brooksville is always the cold spot of the west-central peninsula. But, with the clouds and winds, whether or not surface temperatures get much below the lower 40s Saturday evening in that region of the state is the huge question. For any chance of snow flurries to happen down there, evaporative cooling will really have to be maximized and surface temps in that area have to get at least to the 38-40 degree range Saturday evening into early Sunday. Also, this would have to occur before the moisture moves out of that area if it indeed materializes. It is an extreme longshot for everything to come together for something like this to occur period. But, if there ever is a pattern set-up for it to happen, this is it. Also, I would not be surprised at all to see max temps only in the mid-upper 50s in that area of the state on Saturday and not much better on Sunday considering the 850 mb temps coming into the state this weekend. South Florida will probably only see max temps into the lower to mid 60s at best. It is interesting to discuss at least and we will see how it shakes down over the weekend.

However, if anything, I would say that extreme North Florida may have the ever slightest chance of seeing flurries Saturday as the upper Low moves through the SE U.S. Again, observing the GFS, it is showing ample moisture at the mid levels pushing as far south as into Southern Alabama and Southern Georgia. Those areas have a better shot of seeing snow flurries. However, there is the very miniscule of chances some of that moisture can wrap into extreme North Florida on Saturday. The forcing with this upper Low will squeeze out whatever moisture in the mid levels in the form of light snow or flurries, with the very cold air aloft supported by the 850 mb values.

There is no question that some of the coldest weather of this season is heading for the peninsula. I am favoring the GFS with its colder trend for this upcoming event this weekend. Clouds and brisk west-northwest winds will keep conditions very cold Saturday. Looking at the 850 mb temp profiles for Saturday, I would not be shocked at all to see temps here in the Jax area struggle to barely reach 50 degrees for a high temperature. For Sunday, we will be fortunate to see max temps make it into the lower 50s. Clouds and the winds should keep the Jax area and few other spots across North Florida Saturday morning just above freezing. However, as the upper Low traverses out of the area late Saturday into early Sunday, the High Pressure axis should begin to move closer to the region to clear the skies. This will pave the way for seeing a possible freeze at my locale Sunday morning, and a likely significant freeze on Monday.

[NDG]

Hmm, I lthink last night's GFS MOS if anything have gone up, it now shows KJAX 32 degs for Monday morning?
In last night's run there is now better concensus between the GFS and Euro.

MOS forecasted lows for central FL:
Ocala: Sunday 33 degs, Monday 31 degs
Brooksville: Sunday 35 degs, Monday 32 degs
Tampa: Sunday 43 degs, Monday 42 degs
Orlando: Sunday 40 degs, Monday 39 degs
Daytona Beach: Sunday 38 degs, Monday 36 degs
Melbourne: Sunday 40 degs, Monday 39 degs

[northjaxpro]

Good morning NDG. I was doing the comparison with the trends very late last night with the MOS and yeah, I did not catch the oversight looking at MOS figures back on Monday (2/25/13) and posted that temp for Jax and never realized I did that.

Thanks for catching that NDG. I still am inclined to think temps may go back to trending slightly colder going into the weekend. It is possible we may see upper 20s here by Monday morning.

[gsytch]

No snow. You can dream it perhaps. It is odd that already, the cooling trend should have started yet today is quite beautiful. I am sitting out on our school patio and the temp is reading 74F - quite a bit warmer than predicted, and we are very coastal. The GOM is almost 70f and that will influence the cold air immensely. It appears that Monday morning will be the coldest - does anyone see a nice warming trend after this? It would be REALLY nice considering solar spring is here!

[HURRICANELONNY]

What is solar spring? Anyways it's coming and maybe here for awhile.

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... =Hollywood

[gsytch]

Solar spring is March 1st, when the sun is significantly higher in the sky and more powerful. The calendar says March 21st is spring, but the sun began is ascent a long while ago. Obviously, the other three seasons are similarly dated. Once this chilly spell is over, can we get spring? Is it coming?

[NDG]

Solar spring is March 1st, when the sun is significantly higher in the sky and more powerful. The calendar says March 21st is spring, but the sun began is ascent a long while ago. Obviously, the other three seasons are similarly dated. Once this chilly spell is over, can we get spring? Is it coming?

Yes, meteorologically speaking, spring starts March 1st, especially here in the Deep South.
Regarding the sun angle, its angle right now is about the same as a day in the middle of October, time to start protecting our skin from sun burn.

[NDG]

12z GFS MOS lows went up by another degree or two.
At first I was puzzled as to why the MOS seems to be so high with such low heights forecasted by the models for this weekend for a reason other than the higher sun angle but looking at the forecasted dewpoints by the GFS it shows that dewpoints in the 20s may not even get down to Orlando and Tampa which means that this will not be cold air of a true Arctic oringin like the cold airmass from couple of weeks ago when dewpoints in the single digits reached most of central FL and parts of south FL.
With higher forecasted lows for Saturday night, it looks less likely that the Tampa area may see any frozen precip from making it to the ground, IMO.

[psyclone]

12z GFS MOS lows went up by another degree or two.
At first I was puzzled as to why the MOS seems to be so high with such low heights forecasted by the models for this weekend for a reason other than the higher sun angle but looking at the forecasted dewpoints by the GFS it shows that dewpoints in the 20s may not even get down to Orlando and Tampa which means that this will not be cold air of a true Arctic oringin like the cold airmass from couple of weeks ago when dewpoints in the single digits reached most of central FL and parts of south FL.
With higher forecasted lows for Saturday night, it looks less likely that the Tampa area may see any frozen precip from making it to the ground, IMO.

I agree re no frozen precip. just too warm. we had gulf effect potential a few years back during that extremely cold january (maybe it was jan 2010) and that failed so this is a highly probable flop. and a certain, unnamed tampa bay area broadcast met has been pimping flurry potential nonstop for almost a week. probably isn't going to happen.

[HurricaneBelle]

I agree re no frozen precip. just too warm. we had gulf effect potential a few years back during that extremely cold january (maybe it was jan 2010) and that failed so this is a highly probable flop. and a certain, unnamed tampa bay area broadcast met has been pimping flurry potential nonstop for almost a week. probably isn't going to happen.

I was living in Palm Harbor on January 9, 2010 (a Saturday morning) and I did experience some small ice pellets mixed in with light to moderate rain so that event wasn't a complete failure. That was the only the third time I've experienced frozen precip in this area, the first being the actual snow of 1-19-77 which accumulated on the ground and lasted until about noon, and then a sleet/snow mix which only stuck to windshields and the like on 12-23-89.

Regarding the 1-19-77 snow, our family had just moved to Florida from New York a couple of months earlier, so as a 13-year-old I was less than impressed with the event. How little did I know then what a rare, probably once-in-a-lifetime event that turned out to be.

[psyclone]

I agree re no frozen precip. just too warm. we had gulf effect potential a few years back during that extremely cold january (maybe it was jan 2010) and that failed so this is a highly probable flop. and a certain, unnamed tampa bay area broadcast met has been pimping flurry potential nonstop for almost a week. probably isn't going to happen.

I was living in Palm Harbor on January 9, 2010 (a Saturday morning) and I did experience some small ice pellets mixed in with light to moderate rain so that event wasn't a complete failure. That was the only the third time I've experienced frozen precip in this area, the first being the actual snow of 1-19-77 which accumulated on the ground and lasted until about noon, and then a sleet/snow mix which only stuck to windshields and the like on 12-23-89.

Regarding the 1-19-77 snow, our family had just moved to Florida from New York a couple of months earlier, so as a 13-year-old I was less than impressed with the event. How little did I know then what a rare, probably once-in-a-lifetime event that turned out to be.

great recollections! there were many sleet reports in that recent 2010 event. i didn't observe any frozen precip... i was hiding from what was miserable cold. lows look to be in the 40's county wide (pinellas) with figures close to 50 in st pete and around the beaches...just too warm. I suspect if anything frozen makes it to the ground interior citrus, hernando and perhaps pasco county. i would pick brooksville where we have a decent precip chance and surface temps that may allow some flakes to make it to the ground. as for me, i was just in kansas city last week for their thursday snowstorm which unloaded about 10" in four hours with thunder and lightning tossed in the mix. that was just awesome!

[FireRat]

A cool rain falling here now...at 4;30am, chilly enough to easily see your breath! and to think the coldest wx isn't here yet. are we in for a surprise? Today was cool already, with the high only reaching 67 at my location! Now its 58 w/rain. lol

[gsytch]

I have pictures of my front windshield covered in snow from 12/89 and palm trees lightly dusted in the background - before digitals! It was quite the event followed by 2 days of intense cold. Here in W pasco, 2010 saw sleet accumulate on my patio furniture as I heard pitter patter for a few hours. This will NOT be that, but this morning is definitely chilly. 52F at wakeup with a stiff breeze. Here it comes.