Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST MON DEC 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS......TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT THIS MOMENT VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITES AND SATELLITE IMAGES ARE ALREADY
SHOWING AND INCREASE ON CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO AN INVERTED THROUGH OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL CREATE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND THE
GFS DIFFER ON WHERE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR...EITHER
WAY WE WILL EXPERIENCED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON SHOWER AND CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR OF PR AND THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS IN A PASSING SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...PULSES OF SWELLS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE OUR LOCAL WATERS. THESE SWELLS IN
COMBINATION WITH WIND WAVE WILL GENERATE CONFUSES SEAS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOCAL OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 73 / 10 10 40 40
STT 83 72 83 75 / 10 20 20 40

[chrisjslucia]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST MON DEC 6 2010



.DISCUSSION...AT THIS MOMENT VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITES AND SATELLITE IMAGES ARE ALREADY
SHOWING AND INCREASE ON CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

[color=#0000BF]INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO AN INVERTED THROUGH OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL CREATE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND THE
GFS DIFFER ON WHERE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR...EITHER
WAY WE WILL EXPERIENCED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON SHOWER AND CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

Hi Cycloneye, do you know what the two say (NAM &GFS) as to where the most active weather will be, as mentioned in your post of the San Juan report?

[cycloneye]

Hi Cycloneye, do you know what the two say (NAM &GFS) as to where the most active weather will be, as mentioned in your post of the San Juan report?

The NAM has the best moisture in Puerto Rico for Thursday and GFS has it for between Wednesday and Thursday. Not a whole lot for the Lesser Antilles.

NAM loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

GFS loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[chrisjslucia]

Hi Cycloneye, do you know what the two say (NAM &GFS) as to where the most active weather will be, as mentioned in your post of the San Juan report?

The NAM has the best moisture in Puerto Rico for Thursday and GFS has it for between Wednesday and Thursday. Not a whole lot for the Lesser Antilles.

NAM loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

GFS loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Thanks my friend

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( 7pmET Sun-7pmET Mon)
for Mon Dec 06 2010


Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.2C 90F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.8C 86F 0.3mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.2C 88F trace
Point Salines, Grenada 30.3C 86F trace
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.5C 87F 0.1mm
Grantley Adams Airport, Barbados 30.4C 86F

Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 30.0C 86F
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.8C 86F 0.2mm

Le Lamentin, Martinique 30.4C 86F 0.6mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 29.8C 86F trace
Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.3C 85F
VC Bird, Antigua 28.9C 84F trace
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.3C 83F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 27.6C 82F
Kingston, Jamaica 29.9C 86F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 28.9C 84F
Havana, Cuba 23.3C 74F 0.2mm
Key West, Florida 20.6C 69F
Miami, Florida 17.3C 63F
Nassau, Bahamas 24.4C 76F
Hamilton, Bermuda 19.1C 66F 1.3mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 27.9C 82F 14.7mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 29.2C 85F 3.7mm
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 30.0C 86F 0.1mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1044 PM AST MON DEC 6 2010

.UPDATE...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING
EDGE OF LOW LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS EVENING. DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AREAS OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS AIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL
JET SEGMENT OF 60-70 KNOTS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WAS
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST TJSJ 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST WETTER WEATHER PATTERN WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS...
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS AS TROPICAL ITCZ MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE
PROXIMITY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION
AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PACKAGE...BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE PRESENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NOW EXPECT LOCAL AREA TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLE INTO
THUR DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...BRINGING A MORE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THE REMAINDER OF THE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FEW PASSING SHRA AND LOLL CLDS WILL MOVE
NWWD ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BTWN THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND PUERTO
RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE BRIEFLY MVFR CONDS ACROSS PARTS
OF TISX...TIST AND TJSJ AND TJBQ. IN ADDITION...MID TO UPPER LVL CLDS
WILL DRIFT NEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES. LATEST
TJSJ SOUNDING AT 00Z INDICATED PREVAILING NELY WIND FLOW OF UP TO
15 KNOTS FROM SFC-3 KFT...BECMG LIGHT AND VARIABLE UP TO 8 KFT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.The big change from the dry and cool temperatures to rainy and warmer has arrived.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST TUE DEC 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PW VALUES CONTINUING TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS LATEST IPW VALUES INDICATING VALUES HAVE SPIKED UP TO
1.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT. THIS RISE IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE AREA OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CREEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS IN SHORT TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
CONSISTENTLY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY...AS THIS
TONGUE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WHILE EXACT
TIMING OF BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL DEPEND ON EXACT MOVEMENT
OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND OCCASIONAL JET
SEGMENTS ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS A MARKED CHANGE FROM THE DRY AND STABLE
WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR THE PREVIOUS 7 TO 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...A COMBINATION OF NORTHEASTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS
WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ARE LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 83 74 / 50 40 50 50
STT 84 74 85 77 / 50 50 30 30

[Gustywind]

It's raining very nicely in Guadeloupe since 30 minutes. Weather is really grey and sad and a bit

[msbee]

it's gray here too with light rain. low hanging clouds are hanging over the hills. That always reminds me of Hawaii for some reason.
not a good beach day here, that's for sure.
The tourists must not be happy.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST TUE DEC 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...AND PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...BUT AFTER 2 PM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND EL YUNQUE. THESE
SHOWERS GENERATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1 INCH. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET BUT UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO MOVE THE LOCAL AREA INCREASING
THE CLOUD AND SHOWERS COVERAGE. WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS MOISTURE AREA THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...SHORT
WAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER DEEP CONVECTIVE
CELLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES REST OF
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...INCREASING MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. MARINERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC AND LOCAL
PASSAGES.

[cycloneye]

The first flood advisory for this event caused by surface trough.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST TUE DEC 7 2010

PRC063-069-077-085-103-072200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0572.101207T2001Z-101207T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-NAGUABO PR-HUMACAO PR-
401 PM AST TUE DEC 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
JUNCOS...GURABO...LAS PIEDRAS...NAGUABO AND HUMACAO

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 357 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING
TOWARDS OR ACROSS THESE AREAS. AT LEAST UNTIL 6 PM AST...PASSING
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
AFFECT THESE AREAS...PRODUCING PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6596 1820 6573 1814 6577 1818 6589
1823 6598

$$

RAM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[chrisjslucia]

Having been glued to Storm2K for the past few months, and read Cycloneye's posts with news from the San Juan Weather Office, I have to note just how good that service is and how sensible it is to have both detailed weather info and common sense warnings in the same notice. Have they ever thought of offering a service elsewhere, I wonder.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 PM AST TUE DEC 7 2010

PRC021-033-061-127-137-139-072315-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0573.101207T2123Z-101207T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
TOA BAJA PR-
523 PM AST TUE DEC 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CATANO...SAN JUAN AND TOA
BAJA

* UNTIL 715 PM AST

* AT 519 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING TOWARDS OR
ACROSS THESE AREAS. AT LEAST UNTIL 7:15 PM AST...PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT THESE AREAS...PRODUCING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY PASS BY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6620 1849 6601 1831 6601 1831 6620

$$

RAM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Having been glued to Storm2K for the past few months, and read Cycloneye's posts with news from the San Juan Weather Office, I have to note just how good that service is and how sensible it is to have both detailed weather info and common sense warnings in the same notice. Have they ever thought of offering a service elsewhere, I wonder.

You are right about the great service they do for the PR/VI area.It would be very good if they have discussions for some of the islands.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 PM AST TUE DEC 7 2010

PRC063-069-077-085-103-072300-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0572.000000T0000Z-101207T2300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-NAGUABO PR-HUMACAO PR-
540 PM AST TUE DEC 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
JUNCOS...GURABO...LAS PIEDRAS...NAGUABO AND HUMACAO

* UNTIL 700 PM AST

* AT 530 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED THAT AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AROUND THESE AREAS WHILE DRIFTING WEST
NORTHWEST. AT LEAST UNTIL 7:00 PM AST...PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS...PRODUCING PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
AS THEY PASS BY. IN ADDITION...RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINS WILL CAUSE
QUICK RISES IN SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF AND INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...WHERE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE TO TWO
INCHES HAVE SO FAR BEEN REPORTED.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6596 1820 6573 1814 6577 1818 6589
1823 6598

$$
RAM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
711 PM AST TUE DEC 7 2010

PRC013-017-054-065-091-141-143-145-080115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0574.101207T2311Z-101208T0115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FLORIDA PR-UTUADO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-BARCELONETA PR-HATILLO PR-MANATI
PR-VEGA BAJA PR-ARECIBO PR-
711 PM AST TUE DEC 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
FLORIDA...UTUADO...VEGA ALTA...BARCELONETA...HATILLO...MANATI...
VEGA BAJA AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 915 PM AST

* AT 710 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED PERSISTENT RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES THROUGH AT LEAST 9:15 PM AST.
THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AS THEY PASS BY. IN ADDITION...RUNOFF FROM RECENT
RAINS WILL CAUSE QUICK RISES IN SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1830 6682 1850 6683 1850 6632 1837 6632
1835 6650 1831 6662

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
903 PM AST TUE DEC 7 2010

PRC013-017-054-065-091-141-143-145-080415-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0574.000000T0000Z-101208T0415Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FLORIDA PR-UTUADO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-BARCELONETA PR-HATILLO PR-MANATI
PR-VEGA BAJA PR-ARECIBO PR-
903 PM AST TUE DEC 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
FLORIDA...UTUADO...VEGA ALTA...BARCELONETA...HATILLO...MANATI...
VEGA BAJA AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 1215 AM AST

* AT 855 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS. AT LEAST UNTIL 12:15 AM AST...PASSING
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS AS THEY DRIFT NORTHWARDS
TOWARDS THE COAST. PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR
FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN THEREFORE BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. IN ADDITION...RUNOFF FROM RECENT
RAINS WILL CAUSE QUICK RISES IN SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1830 6682 1850 6683 1850 6632 1837 6632
1835 6650 1831 6662

$$

RAM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Macrocane]

Good evening, the cool and windy pattern continues in Central America and new cold events are expected on Thursday and then again on Monday, the minimum t4emperatures registered this morning:

Belize city (Belize) 20°C (68°F)
Guatemala (Guatemala) 11°C (52°F)
Quetzaltenango (Guatemala): 1°C (34°F)
San Salvador (El Salvador) 17°C (62.6°F)
Las Pilas (El Salvador) 8°C (46°F)
Tegucigalpa (Honduras) 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza (Honduras) 10°C (50°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1045 PM AST TUE DEC 7 2010

.UPDATE...AT THIS MOMENT VERY MOIST AN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THIS EVENING. SATELLITES AND RADAR OBS
ARE SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PARTS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY HAVE DROPPED OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A FEW LOCAL
AREAS ACROSS ARECIBO...UTUADO...MANATI AND YABUCOA. OTHER AREAS OF
LAS PIEDRAS...CIALES...MOROVIS AND VEGA BAJA RECEIVED AT LEAST 2
INCHES.

A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUSTAINING AN
INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO INDUCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
WHERE SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ESTIMATES VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. IT
ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING AND THE GPS-MET DATA THAT
INDICATED 2.08 AND 2.1 INCHES OF PWAT RESPECTIVELY. THE COMBINATION
OF THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL FAVOR THE DEEPER CONVECTION ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE TO
INCREASE THE POP`S IN FEW ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC LOW TO MID LVL CLOUD LAYERS BTW 020-100K FT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AT LEAST THROUGH 08/06Z...BCMG
SCT-BKN THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...TEMPO MVFR CONDS XPCTD EN ROUTE DUE
TO PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...TEMPO MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS OVR
ERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PR... DUE TO PASSING LOW CLDS AND SHRA TIL
08/12Z. PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITE...HOWEVER
PASSING SHOWERS MAY BRING TEMPO MVFR CONDS AT TISX... TIST...AND
TJSJ...TJNR MAINLY BTWN 08/06Z-08/12Z. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDS XPCTD.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.More rain is on tap for today for Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST WED DEC 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD POLAR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WRN
ATLC WHILE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DOMINATES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
AN INVERTED SFC TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA OVR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL 85-KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NEAR
JAMAICA NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA PER MOISTURE
GRADIENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY WHILE INVERTED SFC TROF
FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ADJACENT WATERS/WRN PR
TODAY/THIS AFTERNOON. WITH INVERTED TROF EXPECTED TO PUSH WWD
ANTICIPATE CONVECTION OVER LAND TO FOCUS OVR WRN PR. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLOODING TO JUSTIFY ISSUING A FLOOD
WATCH.

INVERTED TROF PUSHES WWD INTO HISPANIOLA TOMORROW AS POLAR TROUGH
GOES THROUGH FURTHER AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE SERN U.S/FL
PENINSULA. THIS RESULTS IN HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVR THE AREA THU AND FRI AS INDICATED
BY GFS/GFES AND ECMWF.

RIDGE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FLATTENS DURING THE WEEKEND AS
S/W TROUGHS LIFT OVR THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. MODELS SHOW A SMALL
SURGE IN MOISTURE SUN BUT THIS SURGE DOES NOT LOOK ANYWHERE CLOSE
TO THE ONE THAT WE JUST SAW. SO WE ARE NOT LIKELY TO SEE A REPEAT
OF YESTERDAYS RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CONDS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED IN
AND AROUND ALL TAF SITES DUE TO SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...PLOT OF WAVE ENERGY VS FREQUENCY SHOWS THAT THE 11-SEC
NW SWELL IS DOMINATING THE WAVE SPECTRUM AT BUOY 41043 WITH THE
14-SEC NORTHEAST SWELL ALSO BEEN REPORTED. BOTH SWELLS ARE FCST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS NEXT 24 HRS AND RESULT IN
CONFUSED SEAS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...FAJARDO RIVER WENT OUT OF ITS BANKS EARLIER AT
PARAISO BUT IS NOW BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE CIBUCO CRESTED BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AT VEGA BAJA BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT IT FLOODED PLACES
UPSTREAM LIKE IN VEGA ALTA AND MOROVIS. THE MANATI RIVER ALSO CRESTED
BELOW STAGE AT MANATI WITH NO PROBLEMS TO REPORT ON THIS RIVER. TON
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
AVG QPF BASIN AMTS OF AROUND HALF INCH LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OF A FEW INCHES IN A FEW HOURS POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
TODAY ARE LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE OVR WRN PR AND RIVERS IN THIS AREA
ARE NOT AS FAST RESPONDERS AS THE ONES IN THE EAST. SOME CONCERN
FOR RIVERS IN SRN PR WHERE RIVERS ARE SHORT IN LENGTH AND WITH
STEEP SLOPES. HOWEVER...STEERING FLOW IS MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
SO AM EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO STAY AWAY FROM THIS
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...WITH THE HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...A TOTAL OF
83.80 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT.
THIS STILL RANKS AS THE FOURTH WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD DATING BACK
TO 1898.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 83 74 / 60 70 60 10
STT 85 76 84 77 / 70 60 30 10