STORM2K

Brent wrote:Some decent looking storms look to be on a direct path towards Fort Worth

Yep.... waiting on them here in Arlington.

Well the first one has weakened and I may not get any rain from it now...too far north. So far only .12 today

Brent wrote:Some decent looking storms look to be on a direct path towards Fort Worth

Svr warned now. Looks like they are chasing a southward drifting boundary. Hopefully, there is some development on the northern side to get some rain to the airport to get the official numbers up.

Looks like that one cell may have slipped south of that boundary? Nice hail core and hook popping up.

Golf ball size hail in Tip Top, TX (I have never heard of Tip Top, TX lol)

Seems a bit stronger on northern end. Starting to rain here.

Storm passed over the NWS office with 60 mph winds and 1" hail

Also forgot to mention the 60F month average at DFW (if it holds through the end) could make it the coldest April on record. Though still a week to go I think we got a good shot at top 5 even with a warm day here or there.

Rain just ended here in Wharton. Ended up getting 1.05”. Very nice rain tonight and most of that came in ten minutes time.

GFS continues to look incredibly wet over the next two weeks for most of Texas. Latest run shows some impressive amounts in the eastern part of the state. Hope it verifies!

lukem wrote:GFS continues to look incredibly wet over the next two weeks for most of Texas. Latest run shows some impressive amounts in the eastern part of the state. Hope it verifies!

Recent SOI has turned negative. Bodes well for rain.

Ntxw wrote:

lukem wrote:GFS continues to look incredibly wet over the next two weeks for most of Texas. Latest run shows some impressive amounts in the eastern part of the state. Hope it verifies!

Recent SOI has turned negative. Bodes well for rain.

I hope so. We got less than a tenth of an inch total here.

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

lukem wrote:GFS continues to look incredibly wet over the next two weeks for most of Texas. Latest run shows some impressive amounts in the eastern part of the state. Hope it verifies!

Recent SOI has turned negative. Bodes well for rain.

I hope so. We got less than a tenth of an inch total here.

I have seen LESS THAN 6" this ENTIRE year thus far. I dont even think the start of 2011 was this bad! Aside from the one rain event in late march and maybe a slightly busted feb one, no rain really. I hope May flips the trend.

Can I please cash out today's 12z GFS run? Shows 2-4 inches of rain over the next 2 weeks pretty much all across Texas.

The latest operational and ensemble models are in decent agreement that a wet weather pattern will return late this month into May. Bring it on!

South Texas Storms wrote:Can I please cash out today's 12z GFS run? Shows 2-4 inches of rain over the next 2 weeks pretty much all across Texas.

The latest operational and ensemble models are in decent agreement that a wet weather pattern will return late this month into May. Bring it on!

Will there be any severe weather? Or is that impossible to tell this far out?

Cpv17 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:Can I please cash out today's 12z GFS run? Shows 2-4 inches of rain over the next 2 weeks pretty much all across Texas.

The latest operational and ensemble models are in decent agreement that a wet weather pattern will return late this month into May. Bring it on!

Will there be any severe weather? Or is that impossible to tell this far out?

With most rain events in our state this time of the year, severe weather is a good bet.

YTD totals and the line between the rich and poor LOL

I'd be careful about putting too much hope in the long range models. We've seen this before this year where a wetter pattern is forecast but it dries up as we get into the time period. The problem with this pattern is once it's locked in, it's going to stick around for months. Enjoy this cooler weather too because it's about to burn up this summer due to bone dry soils. My arch enemy, the Dry Miser, has full control of the southern and western half of the state.

Haris wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:
Recent SOI has turned negative. Bodes well for rain.

I hope so. We got less than a tenth of an inch total here.

I have seen LESS THAN 6" this ENTIRE year thus far. I dont even think the start of 2011 was this bad! Aside from the one rain event in late march and maybe a slightly busted feb one, no rain really. I hope May flips the trend.

Parallels are similar between this year and 11, that means the wildfire threat which is already there is going to get much much worse if we do not see relief, and when I say relief we need much above average rainfall just to catch up to where we should be for this time of the year, western half of Travis county moreso than the eastern half as areas east of I-35 have been luckier.

I wouldn't quite make comparisons to 2011. 2011 was one of the hottest springs on record for the state and even east/southeast Texas was in a severe drought at this time back then. This year has been dry in the western half of the state partly due to the persistent expanded hadley cell, big sprawling ridge that has been dominating for awhile now in the desert southwest.