Also looks like to be a decent TOR on the ground near Spencer, LA (not pictured in the image above, that was for the earlier Mississippi storm near US-49).
Sorry for the really late comment on this but why would the Gulf Coast be a better environment for tornadoes? Maybe it depends on where on the Gulf Coast you are? In Texas it definitely doesn’t feel like the Gulf Coast enhances tornado formation.
Apologies for the delay in responding, been a bit busy unfortunately.
Regarding the synoptic environment, it's more of the combination of the surface-backed winds bringing moisture onshore and the closeness of said moisture to the wide, flat swath of land which occasionally allow even shallow rainshowers to produce. It's not necessarily common, but seeing this level of onshore flow and marginal shear produce a weak tornado/waterspout or two is never out of the question.
As for geography specifics? I'm not entirely sure. My best guess is that the parallel nature of the larger Gulf of Mexico and the land of southern Mississippi allowed for that moisture flow to make its way a little further inland before getting lofted by the weak lifting mechanism and shear.
There's a lot that many people much smarter than me have discussed in detail, in which a good thread of that information and how it happened can be found here, specifically from a NWS Jackson met: https://twitter.com/DLambWX/status/1377720155086675973
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:17 am
by ElectricStorm
Wasn't expecting a slight risk for Tuesday this early. We'll see if it holds up for my area but it still looks like the cap will be too strong for a major outbreak
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2021 3:26 pm
by InfernoFlameCat
Thursday is looking strong. Still a bit too far out to get a good lookin but bears watching. On a side note I have baby foxes on my grandparents land.
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:47 pm
by Brent
Weather Dude wrote:Wasn't expecting a slight risk for Tuesday this early. We'll see if it holds up for my area but it still looks like the cap will be too strong for a major outbreak
Last I heard timing was kind of unfavorable late night and into the morning
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:07 pm
by ElectricStorm
Brent wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Wasn't expecting a slight risk for Tuesday this early. We'll see if it holds up for my area but it still looks like the cap will be too strong for a major outbreak
Last I heard timing was kind of unfavorable late night and into the morning
Yeah that's how it's been this year so far lol
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:04 am
by Iceresistance
Slight risk Tomorrow in SE Kansas, Western Missouri & NE Oklahoma . . .
The Tornado threat appears to be where the storms start to form, then converge into a line or complex . . .
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:23 am
by Iceresistance
What is with the 6z GEFS?
Mean SCP
Max SCP
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:53 am
by ElectricStorm
Personal Tornado Forecast April Update: Forecast from Feb: Plains-Average, Dixie Alley- Above Average So far my personal forecast remains on track and no changes need to be made. Dixie had a huge March including 2 high risks major tornado outbreaks. Meanwhile the plains have had 1 major event (3/13) but other than that there hasn't been a whole lot of action since then. Looking ahead at the models, there does appear to be some potential for some smaller scale events in the next couple of weeks in the plains, but not anything major.
Will update this again in early May. April forecast update: Plains- Average Dixie-Above Average
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:33 am
by cstrunk
The GFS is now showing increased activity for the 3-10 day period for much of the southern plains.
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:50 am
by Iceresistance
12z GEFS STILL says an outbreak of storms in Oklahoma & Kansas, likely cap enhanced
Max SCP
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:33 pm
by ElectricStorm
Iceresistance wrote:12z GEFS STILL says an outbreak of storms in Oklahoma & Kansas, likely cap enhanced
Yeah if it wasn't for the cap, tomorrow would probably be a major event
The BIGGEST question is "Will the Cap keeps the storms off or they will blow up?"
I've seen days where there was a cap bust expected, but the storms just blew up . . .
Weather Dude wrote:Got downgraded to marginal, no surprise there lol. That's the name of the game this year so far
The certainty for the Cap is high now across Oklahoma.
This is what the SPC is saying for Tomorrow
Strong CINH will preclude thunderstorm initiation through late afternoon. As the surface low deepens and the upper low begins to eject eastward, moderate southerly low level flow will transport mid-50s to low 60s dewpoints northward across the southern/central Plains and mid-MO/mid-upper MS Valleys. A dryline will extend southward from the surface low to the OK/TX border and then southwestward into southwest TX. While strong heating is forecast near the dryline across TX, a stout cap is expected to remain in place and little development along the dryline is expected. More likely, convective initiation will occur during the late afternoon/early evening closer to the surface low as a cold front drops southeastward and overtakes the dryline across west-central KS.
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:43 pm
by cheezyWXguy
A ways out, but 4/15 is holding my interest
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:08 pm
by Iceresistance
cheezyWXguy wrote:A ways out, but 4/15 is holding my interest
And April 9th in parts of Eastern Texas . . .
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:13 am
by Iceresistance
Slight Risk now includes SE Nebraska . . .
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:03 am
by ElectricStorm
I think today might be an example of what could happen throughout the rest of the season. Decent setup ruined by a strong cap due to drought in the SW. It appears the drought is only going to get worse. Combine that with medium to long-range models not showing much this month for the plains, right now it looks like there's not going to be anything big anytime soon. The GFS has a system coming through on 4/15 but it has absolutely 0 cape for it (and pretty much 0 cape the entire run). I know cape isn't the best way to look at potential systems but having a GFS run with hardly any cape in the plains for pretty much the entire run during peak severe season isn't something you see all that often...
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:32 am
by Iceresistance
Slight Risk extended North
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:53 pm
by ElectricStorm
Weather Dude wrote:I think today might be an example of what could happen throughout the rest of the season. Decent setup ruined by a strong cap due to drought in the SW. It appears the drought is only going to get worse. Combine that with medium to long-range models not showing much this month for the plains, right now it looks like there's not going to be anything big anytime soon. The GFS has a system coming through on 4/15 but it has absolutely 0 cape for it (and pretty much 0 cape the entire run). I know cape isn't the best way to look at potential systems but having a GFS run with hardly any cape in the plains for pretty much the entire run during peak severe season isn't something you see all that often...
To add to this it appears that the MJO has been in unfavorable phases for large outbreaks, which explains the recent lull. It also appears that it will be moving into Phases 6 and 7, and possibly 8, which are also unfavorable. That being said, if it moves into Phases 1 and 2, then the end of the month going into May could get interesting. Especially if it goes to 2, which is the most favorable.
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Posted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:11 pm
by Iceresistance
Weather Dude wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:I think today might be an example of what could happen throughout the rest of the season. Decent setup ruined by a strong cap due to drought in the SW. It appears the drought is only going to get worse. Combine that with medium to long-range models not showing much this month for the plains, right now it looks like there's not going to be anything big anytime soon. The GFS has a system coming through on 4/15 but it has absolutely 0 cape for it (and pretty much 0 cape the entire run). I know cape isn't the best way to look at potential systems but having a GFS run with hardly any cape in the plains for pretty much the entire run during peak severe season isn't something you see all that often...
To add to this it appears that the MJO has been in unfavorable phases for large outbreaks, which explains the recent lull. It also appears that it will be moving into Phases 6 and 7, and possibly 8, which are also unfavorable. That being said, if it moves into Phases 1 and 2, then the end of the month going into May could get interesting. Especially if it goes to 2, which is the most favorable.