STORM2K

Both GEFS and EPS ensemble suites return lower heights to the Pacific NW after the ridge break. Back to regular programming of summer 2022 just in time for August. A few days lower 100s was nice.

Oklahoma is hotter the next couple days 104-107F in Tulsa. End of the coming week is their break.

Ntxw wrote:Both GEFS and EPS ensemble suites return lower heights to the Pacific NW after the ridge break. Back to regular programming of summer 2022 just in time for August. A few days lower 100s was nice.

Oklahoma is hotter the next couple days 104-107F in Tulsa. End of the coming week is their break.

Yeah this break is big, highs in the low to mid 80s with storms.

GFS has rain and temps around 70 here Friday evening I might have to find my jacket after this

The warmup after is gonna suck even worse if that happens

Quick ENSO update regarding future weather for us. The very strong, persistent trade winds have developed a growing cold pool underneath the central Pacific. Honestly thought the Nina was going to fade late last winter. We're currently seeing one of the more peculiar cold ENSO events, where the third year may actually end up being the strongest. Winter Nina may be colder than -1.5C.

Ntxw wrote:Quick ENSO update regarding future weather for us. The very strong, persistent trade winds have developed a growing cold pool underneath the central Pacific. Honestly thought the Nina was going to fade late last winter. We're currently seeing one of the more peculiar cold ENSO events, where the third year may actually end up being the strongest. Winter Nina may be colder than -1.5C.

Wondering if this Nina dies hard in 2023 or if it continues all year again? That would be a record would it not?

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Quick ENSO update regarding future weather for us. The very strong, persistent trade winds have developed a growing cold pool underneath the central Pacific. Honestly thought the Nina was going to fade late last winter. We're currently seeing one of the more peculiar cold ENSO events, where the third year may actually end up being the strongest. Winter Nina may be colder than -1.5C.

Wondering if this Nina dies hard in 2023 or if it continues all year again? That would be a record would it not?

It will die when the trades go away and there are successive WWBs. None of that is expected anytime soon. 2023? You would think so on paper. 4th year cold anything is extremely rare no less a 4th Nina.

Ntxw wrote:Quick ENSO update regarding future weather for us. The very strong, persistent trade winds have developed a growing cold pool underneath the central Pacific. Honestly thought the Nina was going to fade late last winter. We're currently seeing one of the more peculiar cold ENSO events, where the third year may actually end up being the strongest. Winter Nina may be colder than -1.5C.

Could this coming winter be even colder than ever? It is theoretically possible with a potential the 3rd/4th year very strong La Niña but it's anyone's guess right now.

As Mr. Spock would say, " Fascinating". However, I am not surprised:

lol

aggiecutter wrote:As Mr. Spock would say, " Fascinating". However, I am not surprised:

[url]https://i.ibb.co/LNpdkNq/Heat.png [/url]

This is largely true for the central plains and high plains. But for those south of I-40 the more modern heat waves have been more severe. For the population centers of Texas the 1930s doesn't hold many records.

Ntxw wrote:

aggiecutter wrote:As Mr. Spock would say, " Fascinating". However, I am not surprised:

[url]https://i.ibb.co/LNpdkNq/Heat.png [/url]

This is largely true for the central plains and high plains. But for those south of I-40 the more modern heat waves have been more severe. For the population centers of Texas the 1930s doesn't hold many records.

In my area, the early 1900s hold lots of records. 1902 was a particularly brutal year. Multiple 105+ days in June followed by 108 in July.

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

aggiecutter wrote:As Mr. Spock would say, " Fascinating". However, I am not surprised:

[url]https://i.ibb.co/LNpdkNq/Heat.png [/url]

This is largely true for the central plains and high plains. But for those south of I-40 the more modern heat waves have been more severe. For the population centers of Texas the 1930s doesn't hold many records.

In my area, the early 1900s hold lots of records. 1902 was a particularly brutal year. Multiple 105+ days in June followed by 108 in July.

This must have been a very localized event. The first few years of the early 1900s were amongst the coolest summers for DFW. 1903 being the coldest.

Flood watches in Phoenix with heavy rain. Salty.

While I understand July is typically a dry month we do average over 2". Another deficit month with 0.00" right now.

bubba hotep wrote:lol

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022072412/240/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

If La Nina was a pic

aggiecutter wrote:As Mr. Spock would say, " Fascinating". However, I am not surprised:

[url]https://i.ibb.co/LNpdkNq/Heat.png [/url]

How bad would recent heatwaves in the US be if we were still using the same agricultural methods of 1920s/30s? Also, the rise in severe heat waves now are on a global scale.

Ensembles are in pretty good agreement a trough will dig into the PAC NW and W Can. Sometime early August we may exceed or match the hottest period thus far. Hopefully this will be the apex of summer and we can trend downward.

Ntxw wrote:Ensembles are in pretty good agreement a trough will dig into the PAC NW and W Can. Sometime early August we may exceed or match the hottest period thus far. Hopefully this will be the apex of summer and we can trend downward.

Usually August 1-10 is the hottest time for my area in climatology. I think we're going to have to watch out for Gulf activity afterwards though. Unlike 2011, this ridge is not sitting in one location all summer.

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Ensembles are in pretty good agreement a trough will dig into the PAC NW and W Can. Sometime early August we may exceed or match the hottest period thus far. Hopefully this will be the apex of summer and we can trend downward.

Usually August 1-10 is the hottest time for my area in climatology. I think we're going to have to watch out for Gulf activity afterwards though. Unlike 2011, this ridge is not sitting in one location all summer.

Sincere question since I am not familiar with the Atlantic history that much, of the hot summers regionwide how many of them featured a tropical hit to TX? Right now region is top 5 warmest 1952, 1954, 1980, 1998, and 2011 are the DFW years.

Ntxw wrote:

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Ensembles are in pretty good agreement a trough will dig into the PAC NW and W Can. Sometime early August we may exceed or match the hottest period thus far. Hopefully this will be the apex of summer and we can trend downward.

Usually August 1-10 is the hottest time for my area in climatology. I think we're going to have to watch out for Gulf activity afterwards though. Unlike 2011, this ridge is not sitting in one location all summer.

Sincere question since I am not familiar with the Atlantic history that much, of the hot summers regionwide how many of them featured a tropical hit to TX? Right now region is top 5 warmest.

I know that it was rather hot right before the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. 1980 also featured 3 TC hits to the state that year: TD 1, Hurricane Allen, and Tropical Storm Danielle. 1961 was the driest 1st half year on record for San Antonio and featured Carla. Also, 2008 was a top 5 featured year and featured Ike. I would have to look back at heat during those years though.

Ntxw wrote:

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Ensembles are in pretty good agreement a trough will dig into the PAC NW and W Can. Sometime early August we may exceed or match the hottest period thus far. Hopefully this will be the apex of summer and we can trend downward.

Usually August 1-10 is the hottest time for my area in climatology. I think we're going to have to watch out for Gulf activity afterwards though. Unlike 2011, this ridge is not sitting in one location all summer.

Sincere question since I am not familiar with the Atlantic history that much, of the hot summers regionwide how many of them featured a tropical hit to TX? Right now region is top 5 warmest 1952, 1954, 1980, 1998, and 2011 are the DFW years.

Off the top of my head, '98 had one. I dont think 2011.
We need the high to slip to the east, so the TC's can slip underneath the ridge towards Texas. I always joke, a Texas farmers dream is for a "weak depression to come in and sit on the state for a few days," but of course rarely happens. Unfortunately, this is just how Nina is. It's terrible. Almost to August. One more month of terrible heat for yall.