STORM2K

Posted: **Fri Jun 03, 2022 5:53 pm**

Ntxw wrote:Tarrant county cashing in . @rwfromkansas

It's really nice to see our area cashing in after watching it all go to the north and east lately. Loving every bit of it.

Posted: **Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:19 pm**

Wow, Fort Worth getting rain for once instead of Dallas and points north and east of there? That’s different.

Posted: **Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:44 pm**

Posted: **Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:52 pm**

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0292
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
748 PM EDT Fri Jun 03 2022

Areas affected...North Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth
Metroplex

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032347Z - 040400Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms with rainfall
rates of 1-3"/hr (over largely urbanized terrain) will likely lead
to localized flash flooding.

Discussion...A distinct mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is
drifting eastward across North Texas and southern Oklahoma late
this afternoon. This MCV came from an overnight mescoscale
convective system (MCS) over west/central Texas, with DPVA and
upper-level diffluence contributing to enhanced lift on the
mesoscale. Precipitable water is elevated in the vicinity of the
MCV, between 1.5-1.7 inches (near the 90th percentile per FWD
sounding climatology). Instability (SB CAPE) ranges from 1000-1500
J/kg, and effective bulk shear is on the order of 25-35 kts. This
environment is favorable for heavy rainfall with localized rates
expected to range from 1-3"/hr in association with convection
flaring on the southern side of the MCV (with very slow steering
flow of 5-15 kts near the center of the vortex). The available
shear will help to sustain convection via updraft/downdraft
separation; however, building cold pools will likely easily
overwhelm the light low-level easterly inflow. This should lead to
southeastward propagating of convection, as new updraft formation
should be most favorable where outflow boundaries best intersect
with the weak low-level.

Hi-res CAM guidance is in fairly good agreement in depicting
ongoing convection in association with the MCV. The most recent
runs of the HRRR suggest localized accumulations as high as 2-4"
in as little as a couple of hours, and these types of rates and
accumulations are already starting to occur per MRMS estimates in
the Fort Worth and surrounding metro area. Expect this activity to
spread southeastward, affecting more of the Dallas-Fort Worth
metroplex. FLASH CREST Unit Streamflow values are already
beginning to suggest moderate to major impacts locally in Fort
Worth, so isolated instances of flash flooding do have the
potential be significant (particularly if accumulations exceed 4"
in a short time over vulnerable urban terrain).

Churchill

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

Posted: **Fri Jun 03, 2022 6:54 pm**

Flood Advisory upgraded to a Warning

Posted: **Fri Jun 03, 2022 7:12 pm**

Reports of over 5" in some areas of Tarrant County!

Posted: **Fri Jun 03, 2022 7:13 pm**

CASA Radar
@casaradar
·
1m
Our 15 min max rainfall accumulation products is a good indicator of flash flood risk. Some drainage basins in Ft Worth have received over 1" in 15 mins, but be advised they may have had a lot more than that over the course of the event. Be careful driving out there!
#dfwwx

Posted: **Fri Jun 03, 2022 7:45 pm**

I’m in Seattle on vacation before Alaska but my home station says we got 2 inches.

Lol. Yep, cashed in!

Posted: **Fri Jun 03, 2022 8:31 pm**

Never figured out how to post pictures or videos, but we received a lot of rain here in Arlington. Our subdivision lake is about 10 acres and it was up to the block walls behind the house.

Posted: **Sat Jun 04, 2022 6:26 am**

Some nice storms down in Central Texas this morning.

Posted: **Sat Jun 04, 2022 6:35 am**

South Texas Storms wrote:I hope you folks in north TX enjoyed the rain this week. Longer range models show hot and dry conditions returning up there next week and possibly continuing for a while.

Ensembles are showing the ridge flexing on the Desert SW, which will keep the door open for NW flow events into Texas. However, in the longer range it looks like the ridge will expand eastward as some troughing tries to set up on the West Coast. That's when it could get ugly for Texas lol

Ideally, we would want that ridge to trend west some to fully open the door for NW flow events into Texas.

Eeek

Beyond that, the Pacific looks to take on more of a standing wave look vs. the active CCKW/MJO look we have had the past couple of weeks. So what shakes up the pattern in the longer range or is it summertime?

Posted: **Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:21 am**

Decaying storm complex this morning dropped 1.25" on my house! Lots of lightning and loud kaboombs at times. 68 degrees!
:rain:

Wish it would last.

Posted: **Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:47 am**

Lots of beneficial rain over the highland lakes chain for once, and lake Travis. 0.6” officially for Austin which at least brings us over 10” for the year.

Posted: **Sat Jun 04, 2022 3:49 pm**

Hope everyone got some rain this past week.

Ensembles are hideous. Heatwave cometh, central Texas looks hot. San Antonio and Austin may get a few ~105F days. Even Oklahoma may not escape the dry pattern coming.

-PDO strengthened in May to -2.30 per NCEI which is higher than April which was higher than March. A scorcher summer is all but inevitable. Hate to say it we need a tropical system to shake it up.

Posted: **Sat Jun 04, 2022 4:52 pm**

For the major metro areas which haven't had a 100 degree day yet, what's everyone's over/under for total 100 degree days this summer?

For DFW I'm going with 36, and that's not based on anything other than gut feel. 7 of the last 8 summers have had fewer than normal 100 degree days. We're due. For all I know we might have that beat before Aug 1.

Posted: **Sat Jun 04, 2022 5:04 pm**

DallasAg wrote:For the major metro areas which haven't had a 100 degree day yet, what's everyone's over/under for total 100 degree days this summer?

For DFW I'm going with 36, and that's not based on anything other than gut feel. 7 of the last 8 summers have had fewer than normal 100 degree days. We're due. For all I know we might have that beat before Aug 1.

1956 and 1999 are solid third year Nina summers. 33 and 48 respectively, I will guess 40 for DFW. San Antonio and Austin 60-70 type season, guessing 68 for SA and 65 for KAUS. Houston is weird, humidity and dewpoints make it hard to get 100 but lots of 97-99F days. 30? Galveston is on a record streak, my guess something anomalous going on along the coast, more records to fall via warmth.

Chance of blank, for the ones who haven't, less than. 0.01%.

Posted: **Sat Jun 04, 2022 5:09 pm**

Ntxw wrote:Hope everyone got some rain this past week.

Ensembles are hideous. Heatwave cometh, central Texas looks hot. San Antonio and Austin may get a few ~105F days. Even Oklahoma may not escape the dry pattern coming.

-PDO strengthened in May to -2.30 per NCEI which is higher than April which was higher than March. A scorcher summer is all but inevitable. Hate to say it we need a tropical system to shake it up.

We just may get one.

Posted: **Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:11 pm**

Ntxw wrote:
DallasAg wrote:For the major metro areas which haven't had a 100 degree day yet, what's everyone's over/under for total 100 degree days this summer?

For DFW I'm going with 36, and that's not based on anything other than gut feel. 7 of the last 8 summers have had fewer than normal 100 degree days. We're due. For all I know we might have that beat before Aug 1.

1956 and 1999 are solid third year Nina summers. 33 and 48 respectively, I will guess 40 for DFW. San Antonio and Austin 60-70 type season, guessing 68 for SA and 65 for KAUS. Houston is weird, humidity and dewpoints make it hard to get 100 but lots of 97-99F days. 30? Galveston is on a record streak, my guess something anomalous going on along the coast, more records to fall via warmth.

Chance of blank, for the ones who haven't, less than. 0.01%.

Actually, 1999 was a second year Nina. 2000 was a third Nina and featured 108 degrees in my area in August. Hoping that does not happen again!

Posted: **Sun Jun 05, 2022 7:35 am**

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
DallasAg wrote:For the major metro areas which haven't had a 100 degree day yet, what's everyone's over/under for total 100 degree days this summer?

For DFW I'm going with 36, and that's not based on anything other than gut feel. 7 of the last 8 summers have had fewer than normal 100 degree days. We're due. For all I know we might have that beat before Aug 1.

1956 and 1999 are solid third year Nina summers. 33 and 48 respectively, I will guess 40 for DFW. San Antonio and Austin 60-70 type season, guessing 68 for SA and 65 for KAUS. Houston is weird, humidity and dewpoints make it hard to get 100 but lots of 97-99F days. 30? Galveston is on a record streak, my guess something anomalous going on along the coast, more records to fall via warmth.

Chance of blank, for the ones who haven't, less than. 0.01%.

Actually, 1999 was a second year Nina. 2000 was a third Nina and featured 108 degrees in my area in August. Hoping that does not happen again!

And 111 on Labor Day in Dallas. Hard Pass.

1999 was a weird year IIRC. After the awful summer of 1998, it started off not-so-bad, but then August hit and it seemed like every day in August was at or above 100.

Posted: **Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:26 am**

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
DallasAg wrote:For the major metro areas which haven't had a 100 degree day yet, what's everyone's over/under for total 100 degree days this summer?

For DFW I'm going with 36, and that's not based on anything other than gut feel. 7 of the last 8 summers have had fewer than normal 100 degree days. We're due. For all I know we might have that beat before Aug 1.

1956 and 1999 are solid third year Nina summers. 33 and 48 respectively, I will guess 40 for DFW. San Antonio and Austin 60-70 type season, guessing 68 for SA and 65 for KAUS. Houston is weird, humidity and dewpoints make it hard to get 100 but lots of 97-99F days. 30? Galveston is on a record streak, my guess something anomalous going on along the coast, more records to fall via warmth.

Chance of blank, for the ones who haven't, less than. 0.01%.

Actually, 1999 was a second year Nina. 2000 was a third Nina and featured 108 degrees in my area in August. Hoping that does not happen again!

That was my error you are correct 2000 is the third. 46 days of 100+. That makes 1956 and 2000 a close match, my new guess for DFW is 45. Small sample size but strong cases to justify.

STORM2K

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