STORM2K

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1631074027425988608

The plot thickens…

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1631019045402165248

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0217.html

Conditional severe threat for central/NE Texas (20% chance for a watch). Cap to hinder development.

Texas Snowman wrote:The plot thickens…

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1631019045402165248?s=46&t=-5lM_vdlE9nb5DLG3wNfmg

What’s Webb saying? He’s usually the one that’s conservative with winter weather events.

Cpv17 wrote:

Texas Snowman wrote:The plot thickens…

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1631019045402165248?s=46&t=-5lM_vdlE9nb5DLG3wNfmg

What’s Webb saying? He’s usually the one that’s conservative with winter weather events.

Nothing yet

Texas Snowman wrote:https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1631074027425988608?s=46&t=-5lM_vdlE9nb5DLG3wNfmg

Haha does he mean “viscous” or “vicious”?

Texas Snowman wrote:The plot thickens…

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1631019045402165248?s=46&t=-5lM_vdlE9nb5DLG3wNfmg

Dr. Maue is late to the party. I feel like this upcoming pattern was almost as easy to pick up in the longer range as the Christmas cold snap.

Spring cancel…

bubba hotep wrote:https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

You have called for this for some time now, no doubt…

bubba hotep wrote:

Texas Snowman wrote:The plot thickens…

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1631019045402165248?s=46&t=-5lM_vdlE9nb5DLG3wNfmg

Dr. Maue is late to the party. I feel like this upcoming pattern was almost as easy to pick up in the longer range as the Christmas cold snap.

00z HRRR looks tricky tomorrow with storm mode, but there does appear to be a moisture gradient across DFW that focuses some early convection before the main line pushes through. A few nasty updrafts are embedded in the line.

 https://twitter.com/climatologist49/status/1631017030202851328

Texas Snowman wrote:https://twitter.com/climatologist49/status/1631017030202851328?s=46&t=-5lM_vdlE9nb5DLG3wNfmg

And we're in the middle!

So is the snow threat legit or just noise?

So busy with yearbook only have time to check here a few times a day.

I think the chance will be if the pna don't go positive if we are to have a realistic chance of winter precipitation. If it does it will be way east of us unfortunately. Imo of course. I'm hoping we have one last opportunity here. It's a very cold pattern advertised for sure.

bubba hotep wrote:00z HRRR looks tricky tomorrow with storm mode, but there does appear to be a moisture gradient across DFW that focuses some early convection before the main line pushes through. A few nasty updrafts are embedded in the line.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023030200/028/uh03_max.us_sc.png

Honestly those are pretty significant UH tracks for a QLCS event, I'm more used to seeing a few pale green streaks in events like this. Also interesting that the strongest UH tracks seem to be over DFW instead of out east into AR where the tornado threat is apparently greatest. Wonder if this will lead the SPC to include immediate DFW in the moderate risk in the next outlook.

On another note, is there something up with the NAM? It has temps in dfw tomorrow evening in the upper 50s ahead of the squall line on the 0z run, and has been showing a way stronger VBV signature in its hodographs than the other models over the last several runs.

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1631124756605943811

cheezyWXguy wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:00z HRRR looks tricky tomorrow with storm mode, but there does appear to be a moisture gradient across DFW that focuses some early convection before the main line pushes through. A few nasty updrafts are embedded in the line.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023030200/028/uh03_max.us_sc.png

Honestly those are pretty significant UH tracks for a QLCS event, I'm more used to seeing a few pale green streaks in events like this. Also interesting that the strongest UH tracks seem to be over DFW instead of out east into AR where the tornado threat is apparently greatest. Wonder if this will lead the SPC to include immediate DFW in the moderate risk in the next outlook.

On another note, is there something up with the NAM? It has temps in dfw tomorrow evening in the upper 50s ahead of the squall line on the 0z run, and has been showing a way stronger VBV signature in its hodographs than the other models over the last several runs.

That one streak down the middle of DFW. Yeesh.

This definitely looked more west-based than I was expecting even with the west shift.

bubba hotep wrote:00z HRRR looks tricky tomorrow with storm mode, but there does appear to be a moisture gradient across DFW that focuses some early convection before the main line pushes through. A few nasty updrafts are embedded in the line.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023030200/028/uh03_max.us_sc.png

What is this showing and what are you saying could happen if this happens?

Seems to be lots of hype building about tomorrow.

I don't recall this as a kid growing up in NTX, then again there was no internet and the weather was on the news and radio so no single run extreme model runs to get worked up over.

bubba hotep wrote:00z HRRR looks tricky tomorrow with storm mode, but there does appear to be a moisture gradient across DFW that focuses some early convection before the main line pushes through. A few nasty updrafts are embedded in the line.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023030200/028/uh03_max.us_sc.png

Maximum updraft helicity is a measure of how much rotation there is in an updraft of a thunderstorm¹. It can indicate a threat for tornadoes but does not explicitly predict them¹. It is calculated by multiplying upward vertical velocity and cyclonic vertical vorticity between 2 and 5 km above ground level¹². The higher the maximum updraft helicity, the more likely there is a strong rotating updraft in a storm³⁴.

Source: Conversation with Bing, 3/1/2023(1) (Sept 2016 - specific HRRR-only fields are now added.). https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP_var_diagnosis.html Accessed 3/1/2023.
(2) Maximum updraft helicity in the Southern Hemisphere. https://forum.mmm.ucar.edu/threads/maxi ... here.9665/ Accessed 3/1/2023.
(3) Models: HRRR — Pivotal Weather. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... pdt=&mc=gs Accessed 3/1/2023.
(4) SPC HREF Ensemble Viewer - 24-hr max 2-5 km updraft helicity, ens max. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?mo ... ctor=conus Accessed 3/1/2023.
(5) Env Parameters and Indices - National Weather Service. https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices Accessed 3/1/2023.