STORM2K

Brent wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

Stratton23 wrote:Ill pass on severe weather, but man i hope we could see a normal summer for once, “cooler” and more in the way of precipitation, but knowing us, that might come in the way of a tropical system

Send a lil severe stuff my way. Gets my adrenaline pumping!

I'm good after the derecho last year. Almost 4 days with no power even in Alabama after hurricanes I don't remember any that bad

Yeah, but where I live we never get anything severe. Honestly, maybe once every 10 years here we might get an actual legitimate storm. They’re very rare down here.

00z HRRR looking good

funster wrote:Blobby storm is blobbing up near the TX/OK border. Probably won't get down to DFW though.

The SE part of DFW had its own blobby storm blob up late yesterday afternoon. There was even a confirmed "tornado" in Ellis County and some flooding.

snownado wrote:

funster wrote:Blobby storm is blobbing up near the TX/OK border. Probably won't get down to DFW though.

The SE part of DFW had its own blobby storm blob up late yesterday afternoon. There was even a confirmed "tornado" in Ellis County and some flooding.

So far we've had zero tornadoes in Oklahoma this year. Last year had 19 by now(but last winter set records for tornado activity too here)

These winds in DFw are nuts, blowing patio furniture all over the place.

This front means business. Only 68 for a high tomorrow.

Looks like some new experimental NSSL models have been added to Pivotal. These are showing several discrete cells in OK/TX, while most other CAMs are not



I'm not sold on this solution yet due to the incoming morning convection potentially hurting this setup quite a bit, but certainly need to watch trends tomorrow morning/early afternoon.

One area I'm interested in for tornado potential is up near the warm front in KS. The 2% doesn't cover that area yet but wouldn't be surprised if they added it in later outlooks.



Overall doesn't look bad for an early March setup, as long as the morning convection behaves and exits the area quick enough to allow for recovery (big if...)

Fort Worth now in a 2% tornado risk zone for Thursday.

I'm assuming the rain this morning will calm down things later?

I don't see how the atmosphere can recover that quick.

Were we forecasted to get this kind of rain this early in the day?

Got only .11 in north FW. It was a fast mover.

This is not some huge complex that would stabilize things for later I don’t imagine, but correct me if I’m wrong.

Doesn't seem like there was as much morning convection as some models had, so I don't think the afternoon round will have much issues developing and seems like the HRRR agrees, with recent runs showing more robust afternoon development than last night's runs did. Could see some expansions of the slight risk

Guess we are back again to nothing but humidity and drizzle south of Waco...good thing we got that January rain down here. Always feast or famine on the southern Edwards Plateau

It does seem like there is backbuilding and it’s slowed to a crawl moving east, but I think storms tonight are still on since there is not a lot west of DFW.

Edwards Limestone wrote:Guess we are back again to nothing but humidity and drizzle south of Waco...good thing we got that January rain down here. Always feast or famine on the southern Edwards Plateau

Idk about that. The CPC forecast looks pretty good for rain and the models don’t look too bad either. Think we just gotta wait till later next week for more widespread rains.

ElectricStorm wrote:Doesn't seem like there was as much morning convection as some models had, so I don't think the afternoon round will have much issues developing and seems like the HRRR agrees, with recent runs showing more robust afternoon development than last night's runs did. Could see some expansions of the slight risk

It did expand, 5% SW of DFW


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SUN2S.png

5% tornado area added in southern KS for activity along the warm front which I think has the best tornado potential out of any area today. Not sure I see the reasoning for the 5% in TX but I guess we'll see

Cpv17 wrote:

Edwards Limestone wrote:Guess we are back again to nothing but humidity and drizzle south of Waco...good thing we got that January rain down here. Always feast or famine on the southern Edwards Plateau

Idk about that. The CPC forecast looks pretty good for rain and the models don’t look too bad either. Think we just gotta wait till later next week for more widespread rains.

Here's hoping the troughs start digging further south. This zonal flow has been awful for the last month or so.

Geez, pouring! Over an inch already. I would say this may damper severe for DFW east but not further west.

Hope it’s not too heavy for the preemergent I put down this morning.

Lots of rain north of I-30. At least and inch and a quarter so far at DFW airport today.

Ntxw wrote:Lots of rain north of I-30. At least and inch and a quarter so far at DFW airport today.

.93 IMBY and counting