Texas Fall 2024

[Ntxw]

Im not buying big heat, models are very likely overdoing the heat the next two weeks, im thinking. low 90’s (91-95) seems more like a believable solution at this time, im really not seeing a big heat ridge thats going to bring crazy temps, its mid september, the sun angle is decreasing, i suspect models will be backing off the heat just a touch

For September it's hot. Mid to upper 80s is normal for mid Sept. 590s dm 500mb is a tad much for my liking (again for mid September.) I think STS is saying no real cool fronts on the horizon middle third of the month.

Remember September 2019 and 2023? Brutal September's with avg daily high's of 95 degrees

Going back to 2010 there have been just 3 Septembers that had a avg daily high in the 80's. September is becoming more like June every year, and Fall really doesn't begin till October become

Indeed. Since 2010 only "2" Septembers have been at or below normal (2018 and 2020) but beyond that it's been basically a "June" month like you said. Prior to that having an 80F or higher Sept monthly average twice a decade was about normal. Now it's complete reverse.

[rwfromkansas]

September in TX is still summer. I don't get excited about cool fronts (hard to call them cold fronts yet). Growing up in KS it was often even hot in mid-September for the state fair up there, though we had our good first cold front toward the end of the fair. Then, it finally started hitting TX two weeks later. Seems like we are on that same trajectory. It won't be 105 again, surely.

[Brent]

We have a lot of 100 records in September from the 1930s still... that must have been an awful decade

[Cpv17]

Snooze fest coming up, woo freaking hoo.

[Ralph's Weather]

Drizzly and mild day today. Mid 70s all day and wet felt almost cool.

[cstrunk]

Drizzly and mild day today. Mid 70s all day and wet felt almost cool.

I received 1.25" of rain yesterday. Nice slow rain off and on all day long. Still cloudy and drizzly this morning. Thankful for the rain!

[Edwards Limestone]

This terrible pattern is gonna extend the drought in south central TX all the way to next spring/summer I guess.

Still aren't even close to filling up the lakes despite some decent periodic rains over the past month.

[Brent]

Starting to see some talk about severe weather week after next... looks like April or May

[Stratton23]

Lol the GFS wants to pump up a ridge into alaska in the long range, tries to bring some more fall like air into the US, nothing impressive though

[HockeyTx82]

Starting to see some talk about severe weather week after next... looks like April or May

Where and when?

[Brent]

Starting to see some talk about severe weather week after next... looks like April or May

Where and when?

Moreso up here but starting next weekend it seems

Other people just talking about a big front but it does look like either way there's gonna be a pattern change towards the end of the month. Tulsa has had zero rain this month

[Stratton23]

EC AIFS 06z had a strong fall front at the end of september lol

[Ntxw]

The ensembles show in some form or fashion west-based Atlantic blocking over eastern Canada. Depending on if there is any cool air around in the source region enough, might buckle the pattern for cooler days to end the month. So there is some slight support, caveat very long range.

[Stratton23]

Looks like the operational 12z euro is starting to hint at that, little bit of a thumbnail ridge extending up the west coast into alaska, could held to drag down some cooler canadian air into the US after the 22/23rd ish, fingers crossed

[gpsnowman]

NWS has shaved off a couple degrees for highs the next few days but still typical late summer heat in the forecast. I'm ready for the next cool down.

[Ntxw]

NWS has shaved off a couple degrees for highs the next few days but still typical late summer heat in the forecast. I'm ready for the next cool down.

Back half of next week and beyond should step down again. ENS advertise ridge in the west which should allow a trough to dig and cooler air to follow last days of the month.

[Brent]

I dunno about Texas but a few days ago we had mid 90s showing up this weekend(at one point I saw a 95) and it's barely 90 instead. A month or two ago we would be warmer than forecast. You can tell summer is on its last legs

[869MB]

Here's an excellent video by Trey Greenwood breaking down some factors that may modulate how active the second Tornado Season may be across the US. However, after watching his video, I couldn't help but wonder if the current positive Arctic Oscillation played any role, even if it was a small one, in our current hurricane season's lack of peak activity. This may be a very long stretch, but I couldn't help but wonder afterward.



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=MevBupBJjU0

[wxman22]

Storms may be back on the menu starting late next week.Hopefully the trends continue as we can use the rain over here.

[Stratton23]

The pattern change im seeing at the end of the month could spell the end of summer for good, still have some warmer days ahead, but seeing enough signs of perhaps the first stronger fall front of the season during the last week of september and into early october