STORM2K

Big changes on the 12z Euro from previous runs. Pretty sure this would mean a wet pattern for us?

Yep, sure would! 12z Euro looks similar to the Canadian and GFS now. Confidence is increasing in a wet and stormy pattern for much of Texas by early May.

Just some snippets of the GFS. These are nice images for parched West Texas, and a lot of the state if this were to verify.

Oh, forgot this.

South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow: Yep, sure would! 12z Euro looks similar to the Canadian and GFS now. Confidence is increasing in a wet and stormy pattern for much of Texas by early May.

YES!!!

Haris wrote:http://i65.tinypic.com/2iu4w75.png

GWO is forecast to tank and the ensembles seem to be seeing an active period around May 1st - 3rd.

Big shift towards a wetter pattern for much of Texas on the 12z Euro EPS. The EPS had looked a lot like the composite that Ntxw posted on the last page. With the MJO fading the Euro EPS seemed to favor defaulting back to the winter pattern keeping a lot of Texas dry. It looks like it might be picking up on the slowly shifting ENSO base state that should allow for systems to dig deeper into the SW.

bubba hotep wrote:Big shift towards a wetter pattern for much of Texas on the 12z Euro EPS. The EPS had looked a lot like the composite that Ntxw posted on the last page. With the MJO fading the Euro EPS seemed to favor defaulting back to the winter pattern keeping a lot of Texas dry. It looks like it might be picking up on the slowly shifting ENSO base state that should allow for systems to dig deeper into the SW.

WOWWWW

Ntxw wrote:I wouldn't quite make comparisons to 2011. 2011 was one of the hottest springs on record for the state and even east/southeast Texas was in a severe drought at this time back then. This year has been dry in the western half of the state partly due to the persistent expanded hadley cell, big sprawling ridge that has been dominating for awhile now in the desert southwest.

http://i63.tinypic.com/8vycrr.png

I was thinking about this lastnight in that in 2011 the eastern half of the state as well as much of the southeast was also dealing with dry conditions. That really exacerbated the drought. At least the positive side to this year is that is not the case so that should help. Big problem is lack of ample gulf moisture return before the next fronts move through. I'll hold off for a bit before getting too excited about May.

The 24 hr change on the Euro EPS:

Yesterday



Today

DFW is 60.1F to date average for April. The coldest April is 60.3F. Not sure if we will beat that (we could with a few more below normal days to go) but top 5 is probable.

Think about that for a second...we've barely had below normal months for over a decade or more...

South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow: Yep, sure would! 12z Euro looks similar to the Canadian and GFS now. Confidence is increasing in a wet and stormy pattern for much of Texas by early May.

I've heard this before ... this spring ... a number of times ... and it never happens.

Getting very concerned about south central Texas' lack of spring rainfall. Several summer forecasts I've seen online show the warmest anomalies temperature-wise right over us.

Oh my

-SOI and WWB near the dateline will set up a significant precip event. Money question is where?

Ntxw wrote:-SOI and WWB near the dateline will set up a significant precip event. Money question is where?

That would be next week your talking about correct ?

Haris wrote:

Ntxw wrote:-SOI and WWB near the dateline will set up a significant precip event. Money question is where?

That would be next week your talking about correct ?

Yes and to start May. -SOI streaks and big WWB events in May is the gold standard for huge rain events.

Ntxw wrote:

Haris wrote:

Ntxw wrote:-SOI and WWB near the dateline will set up a significant precip event. Money question is where?

That would be next week your talking about correct ?

Yes and to start May. -SOI streaks and big WWB events in May is the gold standard for huge rain events.

Alright . I hope Central and S TX can get some action from this . Looks like a good signal tho

Ntxw wrote:-SOI and WWB near the dateline will set up a significant precip event. Money question is where?

Also, the base state is starting to shift to a more favorable orientation. Then add in the MJO possibly ampping back up in P7/8 and everything appears to becoming together for widespread Texas rains.