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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:16 pm
by Ntxw
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Ntxw wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Usually August 1-10 is the hottest time for my area in climatology. I think we're going to have to watch out for Gulf activity afterwards though. Unlike 2011, this ridge is not sitting in one location all summer.
Sincere question since I am not familiar with the Atlantic history that much, of the hot summers regionwide how many of them featured a tropical hit to TX? Right now region is top 5 warmest 1952, 1954, 1980, 1998, and 2011 are the DFW years.
Off the top of my head, '98 had one. I dont think 2011.
We need the high to slip to the east, so the TC's can slip underneath the ridge towards Texas. I always joke, a Texas farmers dream is for a "weak depression to come in and sit on the state for a few days," but of course rarely happens. Unfortunately, this is just how Nina is. It's terrible. Almost to August. One more month of terrible heat for yall.
It's been a broad heat so far. How's it like going through Denver's hottest month on record so far?
. 78.9 currently is tied for July 2012 which is the top dog up there.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:29 pm
by captainbarbossa19
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Ntxw wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Usually August 1-10 is the hottest time for my area in climatology. I think we're going to have to watch out for Gulf activity afterwards though. Unlike 2011, this ridge is not sitting in one location all summer.
Sincere question since I am not familiar with the Atlantic history that much, of the hot summers regionwide how many of them featured a tropical hit to TX? Right now region is top 5 warmest 1952, 1954, 1980, 1998, and 2011 are the DFW years.
Off the top of my head, '98 had one. I dont think 2011.
We need the high to slip to the east, so the TC's can slip underneath the ridge towards Texas. I always joke, a Texas farmers dream is for a "weak depression to come in and sit on the state for a few days," but of course rarely happens. Unfortunately, this is just how Nina is. It's terrible. Almost to August. One more month of terrible heat for yall.
I checked and it turns out 1998 had 2: Tropical Storms Charley and Frances.
Edit: I also looked at the years 1952 and 1954. 1952 had 0 TC impacts, but 1954 did feature a big rain event from Hurricane Alice. Part of the state was also impacted from Tropical Storm Barbara in late July. So, of the years presented, 60% featured impacts from one or more TCs. I would say we have a pretty good chance this year!
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:55 pm
by TeamPlayersBlue
Ntxw wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Ntxw wrote:
Sincere question since I am not familiar with the Atlantic history that much, of the hot summers regionwide how many of them featured a tropical hit to TX? Right now region is top 5 warmest 1952, 1954, 1980, 1998, and 2011 are the DFW years.
Off the top of my head, '98 had one. I dont think 2011.
We need the high to slip to the east, so the TC's can slip underneath the ridge towards Texas. I always joke, a Texas farmers dream is for a "weak depression to come in and sit on the state for a few days," but of course rarely happens. Unfortunately, this is just how Nina is. It's terrible. Almost to August. One more month of terrible heat for yall.
It's been a broad heat so far. How's it like going through Denver's hottest month on record so far?
. 78.9 currently is tied for July 2012 which is the top dog up there.
Is it the hottest month on record so far? I didnt know that. Yes, it's been "hot" though. Lol. Its a dry heat, and everyday except two or three days, clouds or storms roll in by 1 pm. So, we get a reprieve in the afternoon. Something to note, the A/C units are smaller here, so it takes hours to get the temp down in the house. Still learning lots of interesting little things.
Many have said the "storms" in the afternoon almost everyday is unusual here. I've seen rain almost everyday since i returned from houston at the end of june but only seen the concrete wet 3 or 4 times. I'm loving it though. Ready for a nino winter here though.
Edit: After yesterdays storms, temps crashed to 60F here near the foothills. Had the windows open last night. Lemme tell ya, after living in TX all my life, nothing like windows open in July.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:57 pm
by TeamPlayersBlue
captainbarbossa19 wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Ntxw wrote:
Sincere question since I am not familiar with the Atlantic history that much, of the hot summers regionwide how many of them featured a tropical hit to TX? Right now region is top 5 warmest 1952, 1954, 1980, 1998, and 2011 are the DFW years.
Off the top of my head, '98 had one. I dont think 2011.
We need the high to slip to the east, so the TC's can slip underneath the ridge towards Texas. I always joke, a Texas farmers dream is for a "weak depression to come in and sit on the state for a few days," but of course rarely happens. Unfortunately, this is just how Nina is. It's terrible. Almost to August. One more month of terrible heat for yall.
I checked and it turns out 1998 had 2: Tropical Storms Charley and Frances.
Edit: I also looked at the years 1952 and 1954. 1952 had 0 TC impacts, but 1954 did feature a big rain event from Hurricane Alice. Part of the state was also impacted from Tropical Storm Barbara in late July. So, of the years presented, 60% featured impacts from one or more TCs. I would say we have a pretty good chance this year!
I remember Frances. Think it was like a 90 mph storm in Sept iirc. Watching this Nina and the GOM being like a bath tub concerns me for late season events. Thank goodness the upper levels have not been good for storms yet. I'm afraid that will eventually end.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 3:41 pm
by Haddox12
Guys I need something to look forward to - this heat is breaking me.
On average, when is the first true real cold front? I’m thinking like October 10ish.
77 days
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 4:11 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Haddox12 wrote:Guys I need something to look forward to - this heat is breaking me.
On average, when is the first true real cold front? I’m thinking like October 10ish.
77 days
I think the average is around mid-September (at least in my area). I would love to see a high around 80 and low of 60 or cooler.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 4:53 pm
by Ntxw
Ntxw wrote:Today will be DFW's 8th 100F reading matching the total for all of last year in a single month. Tomorrow if the forecast holds should be the 9th. That's where it will likely hold off given the forecast which will place June in 3rd all time most 100F days.
DFW airport had some string of luck the past two weeks. There were many 99F days where if it were less than a degree warmer in theory could have been 14 days and set a new record.
Extended analogs suggest increased risk of above normal through July, I'm going to make a guess DFW may see >20 days of 100F for the month. Since a similar ridging pattern as June in July yields higher temps.
This was back in June. Today is DFW's 21st and the forecast has 3-4 more. Should have upped a bit given the pattern at the time to ~25. Total this summer so far is 30 days of 100F+.
August is a little more difficult the first two weeks is almost surely to be another ~14 days, if the ridge is slow to break down it can easily double. The last week or so climo starts coming down pretty good. The SOI did come down a bit from its record streak so that may help out later on. I'll guess another ~20 days of 100F or more at DFW.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 7:13 pm
by jasons2k
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Off the top of my head, '98 had one. I dont think 2011.
We need the high to slip to the east, so the TC's can slip underneath the ridge towards Texas. I always joke, a Texas farmers dream is for a "weak depression to come in and sit on the state for a few days," but of course rarely happens. Unfortunately, this is just how Nina is. It's terrible. Almost to August. One more month of terrible heat for yall.
I checked and it turns out 1998 had 2: Tropical Storms Charley and Frances.
Edit: I also looked at the years 1952 and 1954. 1952 had 0 TC impacts, but 1954 did feature a big rain event from Hurricane Alice. Part of the state was also impacted from Tropical Storm Barbara in late July. So, of the years presented, 60% featured impacts from one or more TCs. I would say we have a pretty good chance this year!
I remember Frances. Think it was like a 90 mph storm in Sept iirc. Watching this Nina and the GOM being like a bath tub concerns me for late season events. Thank goodness the upper levels have not been good for storms yet. I'm afraid that will eventually end.
I was here in Houston during Frances. It was a sheared slopfest - nowhere close to 90mph (it was 65mph at its peak). At the time I lived in the inner-loop and experienced my first big-time Houston flood. I was stuck at a gas station for about 4 hours and then managed to make it back home after they finally shut the city down.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 8:30 pm
by Ntxw
A brush fire today in Balch Springs spread and destroyed several homes and damaged 20+. Conditions are bad out there if it doesn't rain, will only get worse until it does. We go back and forth here about worse/not worse is academic but real life ramification is dangerous. Be careful with any dry brush. Regardless of what the upper ridges do, there is a lower level thermal ridge in place providing subsidence and general soil that is getting progressively worse. It won't take much to spark.
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/balch-springs-grass-fire-spreading-to-homes/287-133500fc-e00d-402d-a0d3-f602404974c7
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 9:25 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Ntxw wrote:A brush fire today in Balch Springs spread and destroyed several homes and damaged 20+. Conditions are bad out there if it doesn't rain, will only get worse until it does. We go back and forth here about worse/not worse is academic but real life ramification is dangerous. Be careful with any dry brush. Regardless of what the upper ridges do, there is a lower level thermal ridge in place providing subsidence and general soil that is getting progressively worse. It won't take much to spark.
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/balch-springs-grass-fire-spreading-to-homes/287-133500fc-e00d-402d-a0d3-f602404974c7
Yeah. I have a pile of debris I need to burn, but it's too dry right now to take care of it. The grass at my place has tried to die about 5 times this year and it might finally do it if it doesn't rain this week. Most years, it stays green year-round. I will be glad when this pattern returns to normal or wetter. I just hope it doesn't involve a hurricane to get there.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Jul 26, 2022 10:20 am
by Ntxw
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Jul 26, 2022 11:38 am
by Yukon Cornelius
Today will be our 40th day over 100.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Jul 26, 2022 11:39 am
by Edwards Limestone
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Jul 26, 2022 11:39 am
by Iceresistance
This is the RRR (Ridiculously Resilient Ridge), but it's in Texas.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Jul 26, 2022 12:33 pm
by jasons2k
This update came out a couple of hours ago from Jeff Lindner:
Unlike the past several weeks…temperatures will be slightly “cooler” this week and there will be a chance of daily showers and thunderstorms.
Mid and upper level ridge is centered over the southern plains this morning, but is just far enough inland that tropical moisture is sliding NW toward the TX coast. Radar shows scattered showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters and a few have moved inland over the coastal counties this morning. As temperatures warm into the low to mid 90’s showers and thunderstorms will develop along the inland moving seabreeze boundary. Slightly better rain chances will be in the forecast on Wednesday as tropical moisture moves slightly further inland and this will again promote a favorable air mass for heating to develop showers and storms along the seabreeze front. Activity will encounter the subsidence from the ridge toward the NW so inland areas (north of I-10 and west of I-45) will likely not see as much coverage as near coastal areas.
Rain chances remains daily in the 20-30% range through the end of the week with temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s except low 100’s across the very dry Brazos Valley area.
Fire Weather:
There were several fire starts on Sunday and Monday over the region, even with weather conditions well below Red Flag criteria. This is a testament to just how dry the fuel loads have become with significant stress in the ladder (medium) and canopy (large) fuel loads. Fires continue to show aggressive and extreme behavior and have required significant resources for containment. Overall weather conditions are not in the critical range (low humidity and gusty winds) for fire growth, but the dead and dying fuel loads are helping to make up for the lack of favorable weather conditions and allowing fire starts and spread.
Grimes 4285 Fire: 100 acres and 95% contained. Fire started yesterday afternoon near Hwy 90 and FM 36 in northern Grimes County near the town of Singleton. Air support from TFS helped ground crews bring the fire under control by early evening.
Waller County: 80 acres and 100% contained. Fire started from a hay bailing machine near FM 362 and Stockdick Rd. Numerous fire departments were able to bring the fire under control by early evening.
Nelson Creek Fire: 1911 acres and 100% contained after 7 days. TFS and TAMU flew a heat seeking drone over the fire burn scare yesterday to find any hot spots and indicated that the burned area had cooled and released control back to local FD’s.
Tropics:
No significant features of concern across the Atlantic basin, but atmospheric conditions look to become increasingly favorable for tropical development over the next few weeks as is common in early August.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:15 pm
by bubba hotep
Should pretty easily hit 2nd place unless the airport picks up a trace of rain this weekend.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:39 am
by Edwards Limestone
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2022 4:15 pm
by jasons2k
I have had three different decent looking storms head to my doorstep and then promptly fall apart just before raining here. This is getting really old. Some day folks - I will be on the Florida thread instead.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2022 5:13 pm
by Brent
I'm under a severe thunderstorm warning with a high of 83 on Saturday
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2022 5:31 pm
by captainbarbossa19
jasons2k wrote:I have had three different decent looking storms head to my doorstep and then promptly fall apart just before raining here. This is getting really old. Some day folks - I will be on the Florida thread instead.
What's funny is that a lot of people on the Florida thread are complaining about it being too dry as well. They are saying it's going to take a TC to break this cycle. Sound familiar?
