Texas Fall 2022

[bubba hotep]

12z HRRR soundings show backing of surface winds east of I35 and very smooth wind profiles, no real sign of VBV. Also, if you are pulling model soundings, make sure they aren't contaminated.

[HockeyTx82]

12z HRRR soundings show backing of surface winds east of I35 and very smooth wind profiles, no real sign of VBV. Also, if you are pulling model soundings, make sure they aren't contaminated.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022110412/008/refcmp.us_sc.png

https://i1l.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2022110412_008_32.57--96.23.png

So what are you saying? VBV? Threats still mainly east of DFW?

[Iceresistance]

12z HRRR soundings show backing of surface winds east of I35 and very smooth wind profiles, no real sign of VBV. Also, if you are pulling model soundings, make sure they aren't contaminated.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022110412/008/refcmp.us_sc.png

https://i1l.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2022110412_008_32.57--96.23.png

So what are you saying? VBV? Threats still mainly east of DFW?

VBV refers to 'veer-back' in the Hodographs, which can lead to less discrete supercell activity.

EDIT: I have posted the sounding before, but this OUN sounding at 6 AM does not have a well-defined VBV.

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/OUN-6-AM-sounding.gif

[bubba hotep]

12z HRRR soundings show backing of surface winds east of I35 and very smooth wind profiles, no real sign of VBV. Also, if you are pulling model soundings, make sure they aren't contaminated.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022110412/008/refcmp.us_sc.png

https://i1l.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2022110412_008_32.57--96.23.png

So what are you saying? VBV? Threats still mainly east of DFW?

Saying that any discrete or semidiscrete cells along I35 and eastward could be big trouble. VBV is when there is a "hitch" in the wind profile that seems to inhibit updrafts.

[Iceresistance]

12z HRRR soundings show backing of surface winds east of I35 and very smooth wind profiles, no real sign of VBV. Also, if you are pulling model soundings, make sure they aren't contaminated.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022110412/008/refcmp.us_sc.png

https://i1l.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2022110412_008_32.57--96.23.png

So what are you saying? VBV? Threats still mainly east of DFW?

Saying that any discrete or semidiscrete cells along I35 and eastward could be big trouble. VBV is when there is a "hitch" in the wind profile that seems to inhibit updrafts.

Well, the 12z DFW sounding has a very weird shape that may show unfavorable supercell coverage in the Hodograph.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z HRRR soundings show backing of surface winds east of I35 and very smooth wind profiles, no real sign of VBV. Also, if you are pulling model soundings, make sure they aren't contaminated.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022110412/008/refcmp.us_sc.png

https://i1l.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2022110412_008_32.57--96.23.png

It’s concerning that surface obs show the shear vectors a little less parallel the models were showing yesterday. Now that the HRRR and NAM are taking this into account, they look a bit more concerning for the dfw area this afternoon for tor potential

[Iceresistance]

10:30 AM Mesonet Temperatures, you can really see where the cold front is.


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/current.TAIR.grad.png

[Edwards Limestone]

10:30 AM Mesonet Temperatures, you can really see where the cold front is.

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/current.TAIR.grad.png
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/current.TAIR.grad.png

Classic severe wx ingredients!

[Iceresistance]

The cold front in Oklahoma is from Pawnee to OKC to Chickasha to Lawton and to Grandfield, is it moving faster than the models expected?

[Iceresistance]

SPC HAS MODERATE RISK FOR NE TEXAS, SE OKLAHOMA, AND EASTERN ARKANSAS!

[somethingfunny]

72F low this morning would have been a record daily highest minimum, however this evening will fall well below to be the daily low after front passage.

In other news SOi finally broke the long stretch positive. Should this continue a bit longer the mid November shake up will have another piece to help.

Maybe this is just me being pedantic but, I think low temperatures should be recorded by each overnight period, sunset to sunrise. I know it would make the data look messy since it covers multiple dates but it just feels like there's missing data when we have an overnight minimum of 72 that doesn't go into the record books because the following evening was chilly. Of course 72 might not be the record anyway in such a scenario since other warm nights in the past have likely been shut out of the record book for the same reason.
Okay I'm done being pedantic. The weather doesn't really feel like severe weather is brewing... It's just cloudy and humid and the wind is light. It feels nice out. Is the sun expected to show up at all today?
I know major severe weather can still happen without sunshine breaking the clouds.

[bubba hotep]

The cold front in Oklahoma is from Pawnee to OKC to Chickasha to Lawton and to Grandfield, is it moving faster than the models expected?

Just eyeballing it and comparing things to the 12z 3K NAM it looks about on schedule.

[Iceresistance]

15% Hatched for Tornadoes and 45% Hatched for wind


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/spcd1four_panel.conus.png

[bubba hotep]

SPC HAS MODERATE RISK FOR NE TEXAS, SE OKLAHOMA, AND EASTERN ARKANSAS!

[rwfromkansas]

Not sure it's accurate, but the Nadocast on Twitter has bumped up things and moved it west. I am going to be leaving school/work right after 1:30 to try to get home before hail etc. in case it does come further west.

Of course, looks like SPC is going right. I am now exactly on the western edge of the enhanced, where before it was further west.

[EnnisTx]

It won't be long before Tornado Watches go out. I'm thinking there will be PDS watches issued with this one.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff at 7:30 this morning:

Severe thunderstorms possible over SE TX late this afternoon and tonight

A strong storm system will move across Texas today and tonight with widespread thunderstorm development along and east of I-35. Gulf moisture will rapidly increase today with morning PWS of 1.2 increasing to near 2.0 inches this afternoon. Mid level capping inversion in place this morning will begin to erode with the arrival of deeper moisture and surface heating today. As deeper moisture flows northward, expected scattered showers to develop by midday over SE TX and grow into thunderstorms this afternoon. Increasing shear, moisture, and instability point to some of the storms this afternoon potentially become severe north of I-10.

This afternoon:
High resolution guidance is suggesting that thunderstorms will form late this afternoon in a corridor of enhanced instability and shear from NE TX SSW into the northern portions of SE TX. These storms will be located well ahead of the cold front across the warm sector air mass. Supercell structures will be possible with this development and think this will pose the greatest tornado risk of the event. This development will generally be located NNE of the Houston metro area across northern Montgomery, San Jacinto, Polk, Houston, and Madison Counties and then northward. This area is covered by the SPC enhanced (3 out of 5) risk area and located on the southern end of what will likely be a much significant tornado threat over east-central and northeast TX. This threat is conditional on the capping eroding enough to allow surface based parcels of air to rise through air column and take advantage of the favorable shear values.

This evening/overnight:
Cold front will approach from the west early this evening with thunderstorms developing near the I-35 corridor. These storms will quickly grow upscale into a line of storms and move west to east across SE TX tonight. Interestingly, the high resolution models tend to weaken this line, especially the southern portion of the line as it moves into the region this evening likely due to weakening instability after sunset and building capping in the mid level from the south. This line may produce some damaging wind gusts, especially north of I-10 overnight (1000pm to 200am) and an isolated tornado threat. While all of SE TX is outlooked in a slight risk of severe weather (2 out of 5), think the greatest threat will be north of I-10 for the overnight period.

Cold front will quickly push off the coast Saturday morning with clearing skies and cooler temperatures. Front begins to move back northward as a warm front late Sunday into Monday allowing a very warm and humid air mass for November standards. Building 500mb upper level ridge with heights pushing 590dm is impressive for early to mid November and high temperatures will easily reach the mid if not upper 80’s.

Severe Weather Outlook (Today and Tonight):
Image

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[HockeyTx82]

Getting some returns DFW west side. I guess this is the start?

Not really seeing cells yet, sorta a weak line?

[EnnisTx]

Getting some returns DFW west side. I guess this is the start?

Not really seeing cells yet, sorta a weak line?

That's how it begins, the atmosphere is becoming more unstable by the minute.

[Ntxw]

72F low this morning would have been a record daily highest minimum, however this evening will fall well below to be the daily low after front passage.

In other news SOi finally broke the long stretch positive. Should this continue a bit longer the mid November shake up will have another piece to help.

Maybe this is just me being pedantic but, I think low temperatures should be recorded by each overnight period, sunset to sunrise. I know it would make the data look messy since it covers multiple dates but it just feels like there's missing data when we have an overnight minimum of 72 that doesn't go into the record books because the following evening was chilly. Of course 72 might not be the record anyway in such a scenario since other warm nights in the past have likely been shut out of the record book for the same reason.
Okay I'm done being pedantic. The weather doesn't really feel like severe weather is brewing... It's just cloudy and humid and the wind is light. It feels nice out. Is the sun expected to show up at all today?
I know major severe weather can still happen without sunshine breaking the clouds.

I would tend to agree, a lot of missed records and weird daily max/mins due to the timing.

A lot of today is driven by dynamics rather than what you consider conventional svr outbreaks. It can be cloudy and rainy ahead, ULL dynamics improves as it crosses nearby rather than solely relying on local instability alone. Typical of cooler season svr wx.