Texas Spring 2023

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#801 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Apr 13, 2023 3:52 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
What are you referring too?

GEFS, it's mostly the mean Supercell Composite being higher than usual in Oklahoma and Texas on College of DuPage for next week and into the end of April, there is a surprise consistency with it, I first thought it was a fluke (or bluff). The Bulk Shear (500 mb wind) is also mostly westerly as well.

The CMCE is showing it too, but it's mostly late next week and the signal is looser.

EPS has a signal too, but I can only see the Bulk Shear on PW, and it loads later on TT.

Get a load of this guy.

Huh? I don't get it.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#802 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Apr 13, 2023 4:17 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:GEFS, it's mostly the mean Supercell Composite being higher than usual in Oklahoma and Texas on College of DuPage for next week and into the end of April, there is a surprise consistency with it, I first thought it was a fluke (or bluff). The Bulk Shear (500 mb wind) is also mostly westerly as well.

The CMCE is showing it too, but it's mostly late next week and the signal is looser.

EPS has a signal too, but I can only see the Bulk Shear on PW, and it loads later on TT.

Get a load of this guy.

Huh? I don't get it.


Same.
0 likes   
Top
gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3185
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#803 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Apr 13, 2023 4:18 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:GEFS, it's mostly the mean Supercell Composite being higher than usual in Oklahoma and Texas on College of DuPage for next week and into the end of April, there is a surprise consistency with it, I first thought it was a fluke (or bluff). The Bulk Shear (500 mb wind) is also mostly westerly as well.

The CMCE is showing it too, but it's mostly late next week and the signal is looser.

EPS has a signal too, but I can only see the Bulk Shear on PW, and it loads later on TT.

Get a load of this guy.

Huh? I don't get it.

It means your post was impressive, with the length and information. Keep going young man. I'm almost 50 so maybe it's an older expression lost on a younger audience perhaps? I am certainly developing "old fart" traits for sure. :D
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#804 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Apr 13, 2023 5:27 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Get a load of this guy.

Huh? I don't get it.

It means your post was impressive, with the length and information. Keep going young man. I'm almost 50 so maybe it's an older expression lost on a younger audience perhaps? I am certainly developing "old fart" traits for sure. :D


I’ve heard of that phrase before but sometimes it’s used as sarcasm. So I wasn’t sure how to perceive it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Edwards Limestone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 476
Age: 36
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:05 am
Location: Smithson Valley, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#805 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu Apr 13, 2023 5:35 pm

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1646499928842334209


2 likes   
The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#806 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Apr 13, 2023 6:37 pm

Severe Weather Signal is even stronger on April 19th and April 20th on the 18z GEFS, currently can't upload images as I'm fussing on what images are allowed to be seen on school chromebooks!
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#807 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 14, 2023 9:26 am

0z EPS for April 20th with Mean Bulk Shear.

Image
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/4.20.2023-0z-EPS-Bulk-Shear.png
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#808 Postby Ntxw » Fri Apr 14, 2023 11:17 am

A little slower than would like, but you got to like the puzzle pieces. Eventually it has to happen! Last year with the -PDO and La Nina SOI you just knew the heat would come. Opposite now, eventually the rains will come.

FYI We're moving towards one of those uncommon El Nino's nestled in long -PDO stretches, could be a fun winter coming.
6 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
 Help Support Storm2K
Top
Gotwood
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 627
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:18 pm
Location: Brock Tx

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#809 Postby Gotwood » Fri Apr 14, 2023 11:49 am

Ntxw wrote:A little slower than would like, but you got to like the puzzle pieces. Eventually it has to happen! Last year with the -PDO and La Nina SOI you just knew the heat would come. Opposite now, eventually the rains will come.

FYI We're moving towards one of those uncommon El Nino's nestled in long -PDO stretches, could be a fun winter coming.

I like the sound of that.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
txtwister78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1854
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#810 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Apr 14, 2023 11:53 am

Marginal risk for severe weather has been added for portions of SC TX to include the SA metro for today, SPC latest discussion for the area below.

Edwards Plateau Vicinity in TX...

Latest forecast guidance has been more aggressive in eroding
midlevel capping across south/south-central TX this
afternoon/evening. Deep boundary-layer moisture is forecast across
south TX amid steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting strong
destabilization this afternoon. Elongated forecast hodographs and
supercell wind profiles suggest large hail (some potentially greater
than 2 inches) will be possible if cells develop. Some potential
exists for developing convection to form a bow tracking east toward
the Middle TX Coast during the evening/early overnight period. If
this occurs, some risk for locally damaging gusts also will exist. A
Marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) has been included, and an upgrade to
Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if
trends continue to increase.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
EnnisTx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 896
Joined: Sat Dec 26, 2015 4:06 pm
Location: Albany, Texas
Contact:
Contact EnnisTx

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#811 Postby EnnisTx » Fri Apr 14, 2023 1:18 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Get a load of this guy.

Huh? I don't get it.

It means your post was impressive, with the length and information. Keep going young man. I'm almost 50 so maybe it's an older expression lost on a younger audience perhaps? I am certainly developing "old fart" traits for sure. :D


Should have wrote that in cursive, that would really get the youngsters of today.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#812 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 14, 2023 2:48 pm

EnnisTx wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Huh? I don't get it.

It means your post was impressive, with the length and information. Keep going young man. I'm almost 50 so maybe it's an older expression lost on a younger audience perhaps? I am certainly developing "old fart" traits for sure. :D


Should have wrote that in cursive, that would really get the youngsters of today.


I don't think cursive can work here. :lol:
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#813 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 14, 2023 9:08 pm

San Antonio may get some action tonight.
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
JDawg512
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1076
Age: 45
Joined: Mon Aug 26, 2013 8:56 pm
Location: Austin
Contact:
Contact JDawg512

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#814 Postby JDawg512 » Fri Apr 14, 2023 9:15 pm

Would be nice if it came to Austin as well...
1 likes   
Resident Rain Miser

I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#815 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Apr 15, 2023 8:30 pm

What is that over San Antonio?

Image
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-04-15-8.29.32-PM.png
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4226
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#816 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Apr 15, 2023 8:52 pm



Bats.

https://www.kut.org/science/2017-08-17/ ... e-its-bats
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#817 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Apr 16, 2023 1:01 pm

April 21st is looking dangerous for Northern Texas and Southern Oklahoma
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#818 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Apr 16, 2023 1:39 pm

Iceresistance wrote:April 21st is looking dangerous for Northern Texas and Southern Oklahoma


The models are at least showing QPF across the area, so maybe not a nuclear cap in place?
0 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#819 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Apr 16, 2023 2:01 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:April 21st is looking dangerous for Northern Texas and Southern Oklahoma


The models are at least showing QPF across the area, so maybe not a nuclear cap in place?

The GFS and GEFS are going crazy with the Supercell Composite.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: Texas Spring 2023

#820 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:03 am

So much rainfall and severe weather potential keeps being wasted by leading shortwaves and cold fronts, this is already getting very old... -_-
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
Post Reply

Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Stratton23 and 15 guests