Florida Weather

[HURRICANELONNY]

Agreed. looks like a little before 2014 . even down here in s.fl

[gatorcane]

Good example below of just how influential the Gulf stream current is as far as temperatures across the state. Look how cool it is along the west coast (espcially Tampa area and points north) compared to the Southeast coast. This is due to the strong E to NE windflow coming across the Gulf stream across the Southeast coast of Florida compared to light and variable winds across the west coast.

Temperature:


Winds:


Sea surface Temperatures showing Gulf stream current in yellow off east coast of Florida:

[northjaxpro]

A coastal trough has rapidly developed just off shore late this morning into the afternoon. Overcast conditions have moved over the Jax area and the cool High Pressure center over the Mid Atlantic currently has bought in a cool north to northeast flow. This is certainly giving us a day that is befitting of Christmas. It is possible to see some coastal showers move onshore here later today into this evening. Currently 53.1 degrees at my locale after a moring low of 36.4 very early this morning.

Looks like the record warmth that has been over the region should be gone now for awhile. A cool, unsettled pattern is shaping up for north Florida. A series of impulses embedded in the upper level SW flow will bring abundant moisture to the state the next few days. GFS is picking up on a rather strong shortwavr moving from the Wetern GOM and traversing eastward late Friday. This will surely bring significant rain to portions of the state, especially this weekend. For now,near seasonal temps will be here for the time being. Long range models are hinting that the AO may go slighly negative and a +PNA may come by the start of January. We will see how this shakes down and the models long range can certainly change, but there may be a window for some polar air to finally come in our direction as we start 2014.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Flip-Flop

In the 7-10 day timeframe...there has been some chatter about a possible massive East Coast trough along with potentially Arctic air for much of the eastern U.S., But this is highly uncertain. In fact, both GFS and European model (ecmwf) have done a really dramatic 180 in the extended timeframe. As an example...850 mb temperatures over central Illinois on Jan 4 were in the -20s to -30s on their previous runs, but now are above zero! Let's see how models unfold over the coming days.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Are cooler season is about over:

Since it now looks like less of a push through the area, cooling will not be significant, but it will bring temperatures down to near seasonal norms, although believe it or not...still remaining above average! Warm winter pattern continues across South Florida.

[Ntxw]

PNA says not so fast Florida, it doesn't look promising if it is true likely more ridging to return. At least the AO should prevent an all out furnace. Of course it could be completely wrong and I hope it is. Florida needs some snow!

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe a late winter like last winter?

[NDG]

That's what I am thinking, with such a warm Autumn and start to the winter we may have a cooler than average end of the winter into Spring like last year.

BTW, Orlando's December average temperature so far to date is a whopping 68 degrees, a whole 5 degrees above average.

[northjaxpro]

We are currently getting deluged here in the Greater Jax area. I have already picked up nearly 1.5 inches in the rain gauge the past 90 minutes and it is still raining. Thankfully, the cells are moving off quickly to the northeast or else we would be looking at heavier rain amounts. The rain will end by early afternoon as the frontal boundary pushes through the area.

Looking ahead, the EURO and GFS is showing an active southern stream as yet another shortwave moves east across the Northern GOM and into the Southeast U.S. on Thursday. The EURO on its recent though is not as strong with this feature as in recent runs.This will spread another round of rain and potential thunderstorms to the area later this week.

When this upcoming system passes through late Thursday, the models are depicting ate upper level trough to sharpen significantly across the Eastern U.S. The EURO is showing a significant colder bias than GFS in 120 hours. Is Old Man Winter finally about to pay us a visit after such a warm December, one of the warmest we have seen on record? We await too see how this pans out, bvut we may possibly see a freeze, a least here in the northern peninsula by the end of this week.

[gatorcane]

Current temperatures across the country this morning - South Florida's temperatures continue to be warm as that subtropical ridge over the Northern Caribbean / NE Cuba / SW Atlantic just doesn't want to budge:



But the extended forecast from NWS Miami suggests some significantly cooler weather may be on the way in the long-range:

LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE
THREAT OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY
FRIDAY WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER, THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW
COOL IT WILL GET BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH IS THE
WARMER MODEL WITH A RANGE ON SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUN HAS A 15-20 DEGREE RANGE
BETWEEN THE COOLEST AND WARMEST PERTURBATIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH POSSIBLE UPPER 30S OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. SO AT
THIS TIME, IT CONTINUES TO BE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH AND WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE MEX NUMBERS UNTIL THE MODEL HAS SOME MORE
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[NDG]

If the last couple of runs of the ECMWF are correct most of central FL would see their first light freeze of the season by early next week,GFS does not agree with its solution. Usually what I have noticed is that when there is such a spread between the two in the medium range the difference between the two is the outcome, so lets hope so.

[boca]

Ill take 50's for a low at this point,this se ridge has to go.We havent had any cool air what so ever here in South Florida with the warmest december on record.

[TheStormExpert]

Hasn't this pattern with the SE Ridge been in place since late spring/early summer? If that is the case you would think it would go try and go away real soon. Also, supposedly with global warming taking place weather patterns tend to stick around for long periods so who knows anymore.

[northjaxpro]

As I mentioned in the Deep South winter weather thread, It appears we will finally get a visit from Old Man Winter in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe next week. The latest GFS runs are now trending toward the EURO runs showing the colder solution and I am growing more confident with time that we will see potential freezes across the northern peninsula and possibly into the central peninsula.

The persistent SE ridge which has been parked across the peninsula giving us unseasonable warmth since Thanksgiving is finally loosening its grip. Well, at least in the short term. We are seeing finally seeing at least a slightly negative AO set up which will help to bring the peninsula a significant cooldown.

Will monitor closely as there are possible indications based on the recent EURO run that it may get even colder early next week for our region.

[boca]

As I mentioned in the Deep South winter weather thread, It appears we will finally get a visit from Old Man Winter in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe next week. The latest GFS runs are now trending toward the EURO runs showing the colder solution and I am growing more confident with time that we will see potential freezes across the northern peninsula and possibly into the central peninsula.

The persistent SE ridge which has been parked across the peninsula giving us unseasonable warmth since Thanksgiving is finally loosening its grip. Well, at least in the short term. We are seeing finally seeing at least a slightly negative AO set up which will help to bring the peninsula a significant cooldown.

Will monitor closely as there are possible indications based on the recent EURO run that it may get even colder early next week for our region.

I was driving home and my car thermometer was at 85 degrees and Im sick of it.I hope we get in the cool air too here in tropical South Florida.

[NDG]

As I mentioned in the Deep South winter weather thread, It appears we will finally get a visit from Old Man Winter in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe next week. The latest GFS runs are now trending toward the EURO runs showing the colder solution and I am growing more confident with time that we will see potential freezes across the northern peninsula and possibly into the central peninsula.

The persistent SE ridge which has been parked across the peninsula giving us unseasonable warmth since Thanksgiving is finally loosening its grip. Well, at least in the short term. We are seeing finally seeing at least a slightly negative AO set up which will help to bring the peninsula a significant cooldown.

Will monitor closely as there are possible indications based on the recent EURO run that it may get even colder early next week for our region.

I have been watching this closely, good thing that the euro dropped the idea of the run it showed at 0z of 12-31 of -20 deg C at H85 reaching almost all the way down to central MS and AL, that run would had been devastating for the citrus industry in central FL had it been correct.

The good news is that the High pressure center will stay north of the Peninsula so I doubt that freezing temps will come any further south than Ocala, IMO.

[TheStormExpert]

I can't see it getting all that cold for any part of Florida until a pattern change actually takes place. Even if we do manage to get some colder air it will be short lived and very brief (lasting 1-2 days).

[northjaxpro]

I can't see it getting all that cold for any part of Florida until a pattern change actually takes place. Even if we do manage to get some colder air it will be short lived and very brief (lasting 1-2 days).

I am not doubting that StormExpert. That has been the case all season. Heck we have seen only 1 freeze at my locale all season to this point. We only had a brief 2 day cooldown here just after Christmas when the mins did get to the mid 30s. At least we will get some cooldown briefly here on Friday (1-3-14) and again first part of next week. But, overall, yes, we need a pattern of a -AO or +PNA for a length of time for the peninsula to have periodic bouts of cold during the winter months.

We have had overrunning in full effect today as it has rained all day long here in Jax and more rain on the way later tonight into Thursday. I have picked up just nearly 2 inches total this week so far after Sunday's soaker.

I'll be interested to see the new EURO and GFS runs regarding next week's potential freeze here across the Northern peninsula.

[SouthFloridian92]

As I mentioned in the Deep South winter weather thread, It appears we will finally get a visit from Old Man Winter in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe next week. The latest GFS runs are now trending toward the EURO runs showing the colder solution and I am growing more confident with time that we will see potential freezes across the northern peninsula and possibly into the central peninsula.

The persistent SE ridge which has been parked across the peninsula giving us unseasonable warmth since Thanksgiving is finally loosening its grip. Well, at least in the short term. We are seeing finally seeing at least a slightly negative AO set up which will help to bring the peninsula a significant cooldown.

Will monitor closely as there are possible indications based on the recent EURO run that it may get even colder early next week for our region.

I was driving home and my car thermometer was at 85 degrees and Im sick of it.I hope we get in the cool air too here in tropical South Florida.

I feel ya. The snowbirds here tell me they love this weather and I think they're insane. It's January, it's not supposed to be this warm. Hopefully sometimes soon, if all goes to plan I'll be moving up to northern FL or GA, where it actually gets cold.

[NDG]

The good news for our citrus industry in central FL is that the latest 0z Euro continued to trend not as cold. It surely continuous to drop its solution of a couple of nights ago of -20 deg C at H85 dropping almost all the way down to I-20 from MS to GA.
So at this time Tuesday morning looks to be the only day that there could be a threat of a light freeze in parts of Central FL, both the GFS and ECMWF show the Arctic High center quickly moving eastward towards the mid Atlantic coastal States allowing moderating winds off the Atlantic as quickly as Wednesday, which makes sense with the lack of a negative NAO pattern, there is no Greenland blocking this year so far.