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Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:05 pm
by Haris
bubba hotep wrote:Ntxw wrote:-SOI and WWB near the dateline will set up a significant precip event. Money question is where?
Also, the base state is starting to shift to a more favorable orientation. Then add in the MJO possibly ampping back up in P7/8 and everything appears to becoming together for widespread Texas rains.
Severe weather consequence ? Outbreak type situation ? Just curious or more flooding potential ? Too early I guess
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:18 pm
by Cpv17
Haris wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Ntxw wrote:-SOI and WWB near the dateline will set up a significant precip event. Money question is where?
Also, the base state is starting to shift to a more favorable orientation. Then add in the MJO possibly ampping back up in P7/8 and everything appears to becoming together for widespread Texas rains.
Severe weather consequence ? Outbreak type situation ? Just curious or more flooding potential ? Too early I guess
I would say both severe weather and flooding rains could be a possibility. It’s hard for heavy rains not to come with severe weather in late April and early May.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:32 pm
by Cpv17
This looks good, but I’ve seen this before just recently and nothing much came out of it.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:45 pm
by Haris
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:02 pm
by weatherdude1108
I read the little write-up by the CPC for the May 2nd to May 8th time frame. They mentioned the heavy rain, then an enhanced severe weather threat. Of course it is late April/Early May, the heart of severe weather season, which I am guessing is why they put that caveat. However, it was not included in the graphic by CPC, because the SPCs 4-8 day outlook didn't have a graphic highlighting a risk area. I'll take heavy rain over severe. Although heavy rain by itself can be severe.
For Wednesday May 02 - Tuesday May 08: The high wind hazard predicted for the central and southern High Plains region on day 7 (May 1) continues into day 8 (May 2).
As noted in the 3-7 day section, increasingly moist return flow from surface high pressure moving off the Southeast coast is expected to prime the atmosphere across the Central and east-central CONUS for widespread rain and thunderstorm activity from May 2-4. A slight risk of heavy rain is predicted over the Lower Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, May 2-4. A significant subset of this region is covered by a moderate risk of heavy rain for the same period. The broad 3-day event is due primarily to timing differences and inherent uncertainties between the ECMWF and GFS ensemble means. Non-hazardous rainfall is expected to extend farther north into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes region. The risk of strong to potentially severe thunderstorm activity is likely to be enhanced, especially over the Lower Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, as a result of the expected confluence of various mid-level and surface weather features (such as an approaching 500-hPa trough, a dryline and associated elevated mixed layer, several baroclinic zones, increased wind shear, and increased instability).
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:07 pm
by Ntxw
The recent forecasts (early month) was not backed by the Pacific, thus bust level was possible. That is usually the case when you rely on just the gulf and Atlantic in TX. This upcoming event should be backed by the big Ocean so bust is less a factor region wise. The rise in AAM (mountain torque) is noteworthy and we will be in for a period, very nino-esque type pattern.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:58 pm
by bubba hotep
The WRF-ARW2, RGEM and Texas Tech WRF are much more aggressive with precipitation totals across DFW than the NAMs & GFS.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:23 pm
by wxman57
gpsnowman wrote:wxman57 wrote:I decided to save up all of this spring's heat for next Fall/Winter.
I think we need a Temperature Appropriation Committee headed by Portastorm, Ntwx, and Brent to fight this injustice. At least a compromise giving you a blazing month of scorching heat, from July 15 to August 15 only to leave Fall/Winter alone.
You guys made a deal with the devil last fall, and the bill is coming due next fall/winter.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:30 pm
by TheProfessor
wxman57 wrote:gpsnowman wrote:wxman57 wrote:I decided to save up all of this spring's heat for next Fall/Winter.
I think we need a Temperature Appropriation Committee headed by Portastorm, Ntwx, and Brent to fight this injustice. At least a compromise giving you a blazing month of scorching heat, from July 15 to August 15 only to leave Fall/Winter alone.
You guys made a deal with the devil last fall, and the bill is coming due next fall/winter.
Hey, Could you save just a touch of that heat for Spring in the OV next year. I don't want to spend another large part of Apil with sub 50 temps and multiple days with snow falling again.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:44 pm
by TheProfessor
Also big time flood threat on the 18z GFS. If type 2 soundings do occur that would likely be the biggest risk next week.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:47 pm
by Haris
TheProfessor wrote:Also big time flood threat on the 18z GFS. If type 2 soundings do occur that would likely be the biggest risk next week.
THE 18Z GFS is crazy!!! It has the LOW STOP in Mexico and sends waves of rain FOR DAYS AND DAYS!!! Dropping 3-7" of rain across the entire state! AMAZING!
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:48 pm
by TheProfessor
Haris wrote:TheProfessor wrote:Also big time flood threat on the 18z GFS. If type 2 soundings do occur that would likely be the biggest risk next week.
THE 18Z GFS IS ON DRUGS LOL!!! It has the LOW STOP in Mexico and sends waves of rain FOR DAYS AND DAYS!!! Dropping 3-7" of rain across the entire state! AMAZING! LOL
Not amazing when you're trying to fly in on Thursday
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:09 pm
by bubba hotep
wxman57 wrote:gpsnowman wrote:wxman57 wrote:I decided to save up all of this spring's heat for next Fall/Winter.
I think we need a Temperature Appropriation Committee headed by Portastorm, Ntwx, and Brent to fight this injustice. At least a compromise giving you a blazing month of scorching heat, from July 15 to August 15 only to leave Fall/Winter alone.
You guys made a deal with the devil last fall, and the bill is coming due next fall/winter.
Is it too early to start a winter thread so we can lock in these predictions?
I'm going with a block buster winter based on emerging Nino, declining solar, continued step down from super nino temp spike, etc.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:29 pm
by Ntxw
I am on a similar bandwagon. I like the outside signals (solar, enso, mid latitudes) to be working in a general direction of 2009
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:41 pm
by Haris
Ntxw wrote:I am on a similar bandwagon. I like the outside signals (solar, enso, mid latitudes) to be working in a general direction of 2009
Im forecasting another snowy Austin winter. LOCKING IT IN !
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:43 pm
by Brent
Haris wrote:Ntxw wrote:I am on a similar bandwagon. I like the outside signals (solar, enso, mid latitudes) to be working in a general direction of 2009
Im forecasting another snowy Austin winter. LOCKING IT IN !
As long as DFW breaks its streak I'm fine with that
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:44 pm
by Haris
0z nam 3k and ttu wrf show fairly numerous showers and storms over Austin tom evening. Worth nothing.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2018 12:25 am
by Cpv17
CMC is onboard although I’d like to see some more rain in the panhandle and west TX where they need it.
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:23 am
by Yukon Cornelius
It sure is discouraging when the local Mets go on and on about the beneficial rainfall for last night and today and so far not a drop and spotty drizzle today so far. Also, where has our severe weather been?
Re: Texas Spring 2018
Posted: Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:29 am
by Ntxw
SOI today is -15. For 7 days in a row now has been negative, the longest streak since Feb. 850mb U-winds in the equatorial Pacific is yielding westerlies to become a sig WWB. Regardless of what day to day model runs show, confidence in a significant flooding type rain event is increasing in the weeks ahead.
It is not happening in a vaccuum. Models have been toying with an EPAC system. Even if it does not materialize it does show the moistening up to our tropical linkage source region.
