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Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2022 7:29 pm
by jasons2k
captainbarbossa19 wrote:jasons2k wrote:I have had three different decent looking storms head to my doorstep and then promptly fall apart just before raining here. This is getting really old. Some day folks - I will be on the Florida thread instead.
What's funny is that a lot of people on the Florida thread are complaining about it being too dry as well. They are saying it's going to take a TC to break this cycle. Sound familiar?
It’s isolated to SE Florida and they got dumped on yesterday. Also with the humidity they won’t see tree die-offs like we do in Texas. Florida has droughts too but they are shorter and less severe.
I just had my 4th miss of the day too.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2022 7:35 pm
by Ntxw
jasons2k wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:jasons2k wrote:I have had three different decent looking storms head to my doorstep and then promptly fall apart just before raining here. This is getting really old. Some day folks - I will be on the Florida thread instead.
What's funny is that a lot of people on the Florida thread are complaining about it being too dry as well. They are saying it's going to take a TC to break this cycle. Sound familiar?
It’s isolated to SE Florida and they got dumped on yesterday. Also with the humidity they won’t see tree die-offs like we do in Texas. Florida has droughts too but they are shorter and less severe.
I just had my 4th miss of the day too.
That's brutal!
Florida drought year is a normal wet year for us
5" of rain a month for them is considered "dry".
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2022 1:50 pm
by Edwards Limestone
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:16 pm
by Ntxw
PDO is one of the best long term forecasting tools for wet/dry stretches for Texas. This was my go to indicator this year. You can live off weak -pdo or transitioning PDO but severely negative extensive PDO coupled with Nina is the red flag, makes for a fairly easy hot summer forecast.
Really want to see it let up some more in the coming months.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:30 pm
by starsfan65
Ntxw wrote:PDO is one of the best long term forecasting tools for wet/dry stretches for Texas. This was my go to indicator this year. You can live off weak -pdo or transitioning PDO but severely negative extensive PDO coupled with Nina is the red flag, makes for a fairly easy hot summer forecast.
Really want to see it let up some more in the coming months.
We need some rain badly.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:32 pm
by captainbarbossa19
12z GFS and Euro are trending cooler for much of the state starting late next week (showers and t-storms?). Looks like the strongest ridging may develop over the Ohio River Valley.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2022 5:06 pm
by bubba hotep
Ntxw wrote:PDO is one of the best long term forecasting tools for wet/dry stretches for Texas. This was my go to indicator this year. You can live off weak -pdo or transitioning PDO but severely negative extensive PDO coupled with Nina is the red flag, makes for a fairly easy hot summer forecast.
Really want to see it let up some more in the coming months.
Remember back in Feb when the models were trying to kill off the Nina... Freaking spring forecast barrier!!!
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2022 6:27 pm
by Ntxw
bubba hotep wrote:Ntxw wrote:PDO is one of the best long term forecasting tools for wet/dry stretches for Texas. This was my go to indicator this year. You can live off weak -pdo or transitioning PDO but severely negative extensive PDO coupled with Nina is the red flag, makes for a fairly easy hot summer forecast.
Really want to see it let up some more in the coming months.
Remember back in Feb when the models were trying to kill off the Nina... Freaking spring forecast barrier!!!
Hoping for a 2000 redux. Really cold Nov-Dec. If you roll forward and we get a strong Nina basically says there will be one major cold blast. Hopefully. The extenuated -enso (neutrals) included usually gave a cold December relative to the rest of the winter.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2022 7:24 pm
by weatherdude1108
It's sprinkling!!!
Our zero raindrops since June 27th, has ended!
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:31 pm
by Brent
Big storm with minor flooding up here
i haven't seen rain like this since the severe days in May
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:37 pm
by ElectricStorm
Brent wrote:Big storm with minor flooding up here
i haven't seen rain like this since the severe days in May
Yep got a severe thunderstorm warning up here earlier. Definitely nice to finally get some rain and a break from these 100+ degree temps.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:59 pm
by rwfromkansas
Drove back to Kansas for a brief trip before summer ends. It’s in the 70s. Amazing….
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:06 pm
by Brent
76 degrees here and has rained most of the day
I've lost count how many days this month we didn't even see a low of 76
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Fri Jul 29, 2022 3:28 pm
by Iceresistance
Brent wrote:76 degrees here and has rained most of the day
I've lost count how many days this month we didn't even see a low of 76
Confirmed tornado in Broken Arrow last night.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:49 pm
by Ntxw
Today is DFW's 25th 100F or greater for July. With June's 9 days we are now at 34. We are encroaching the top 10 list with bottom 5 surely to fall. The forecast continues to show around or above 100F through the next 7 days. Conservative estimate would easily put us at #3. #1 and #2 comes into play if September is hot assuming August matches July.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Fri Jul 29, 2022 6:03 pm
by bubba hotep
Pop up showers dancing around the airport. Will the streak end in a rather dubious fashion?
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Fri Jul 29, 2022 6:09 pm
by gpsnowman
I'm on the northeast side a few miles from DFW. Hearing thunder but no rain. Getting windy and cloudy.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:24 pm
by cheezyWXguy
Saw a shower pop up over dfw airport, may be good for trace-0.01, assuming it even reached the ground
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Sat Jul 30, 2022 12:39 pm
by cheezyWXguy
Looks like no rainfall was recorded at dfw yesterday, the precip free streak continues.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Posted: Sat Jul 30, 2022 12:57 pm
by Ntxw
cheezyWXguy wrote:Looks like no rainfall was recorded at dfw yesterday, the precip free streak continues.
If it doesn't happen today then we got a good 7+ days of a dry forecast to push near 70 days. At that point, that #1 of 84 days suddenly doesn't seem farfetched.
