Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST SUN MAR 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WED OR THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THINGS HAVE DRIED OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS AREA BECOMES ON THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF A RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG
20N. A CDFNT ALSO LOCATED SOUTH OF 3ON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
OUR LOCAL ATLC WATERS EARLY TUE AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF PR
DURING THE AFTERNOON TUE. OVERALL...UNSETTLED WX WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AND SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE. CDFNT
MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TUE NIGHT WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE. WX CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY TUE NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES. WED LOOKS BONE DRY WITH PW VALUES BELOW 0.7 INCHES AND
LIMITED RH. FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AT THE SFC TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
MON AND AGAIN MON NIGHT THRU TUE MORNING AT NORTH COAST PR
TERMINALS AND USVI.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS FCST TO BUILD UP TO 11 FT PER LATEST WAVEWATCH.
SUSPECT THIS IS A LITTLE BIT TOO HIGH WITH 7-9 FT MORE LIKELY TO
VERIFY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 81 72 80 / 70 70 70 60
STT 70 82 73 82 / 70 70 50 50

[Macrocane]

It was an interesting day in Central America today with some very warm and some very cool temps, so today I'm going to do a summary country by country.

-Belize: Warmer than normal lows and cooler than normal highs occured.
-Guatemala: Average lows but cooler (in some places much cooler) than normal highs were registered. It was a very cloudy day in this country thus the cool highs.
-Honduras: Warmer than normal lows and cooler than normal highs were experienced. Similar to Guatemala it was very cloudy and that caused the cool highs.
-El Salvador: In San Salvador close to average temps were registered, in Las Pilas a warmer than normal low and a much cooler than normal high was registered, in San Miguel the low was well above average and the high was very hot.
-Nicaragua had average temps.
-Costa Rica: In San Jose the low was near average and the high was cooler than average, in Irazu volcano the low was well below average and the high was normal.
-Panama: The low was the warmest of the year but the high was the coolest, kind of ironic isn't it?

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.4°C (36.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.0°C (51.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.8°C (74.8°F) Warmest of the year.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 1.0°C (33.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.9°C (76.8°F) Warmest of the year.

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 25.8°C (78.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 21°C (70°F) Coolest since Jan 26!
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 27°C (81°F) Coolest since Feb 14.
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.1°C (57.4°F) Coolest since Feb 14.
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.7°C (101.7°F) 2nd warmest for this month.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 25°C (77°F) Coolest since Feb 14.
La Esperanza, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.9°C (78.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.5°C (86.9°F) Coolest of the year.

[cycloneye]

Good morning..More rain is expected today and tommorow as a late cold front moves thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
627 AM AST MON MAR 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS RACING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHEN IT MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATES FRAGMENTS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG 24N.
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE
UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...SATELLITE DERIVED TPW IMAGERY REVEALS THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT LOCATED ABOUT 370 MILES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...
SPREADING BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS JET DYNAMICS
CONTINUE FAVORABLE... EXPECTING WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES TO GROW PROGRESSIVELY MORE ACTIVE THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. THEN...THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SHARP DROP IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING 0.7 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.
MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TJMZ FROM 21/15Z TO AT LEAST 21/22Z AND
AT TIST AFT 21/10-21/14 AND AT TNCM AND TKPK AFT 22/03Z. SHOWERS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO A PATCH OF MOISTURE APCHG THE AREA ARND
21/10Z AND A BAND OF MOISTURE ARRIVING AFT 21/22Z...THE LATTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY DESCENDING CDFNT FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
N-NE LLVL WINDS 8-20 KTS UP TO 12 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION UP TO AROUND 21
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL RESULT IN SHORT-PERIOD NNE SWELL
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 80 72 / 70 70 60 20
STT 82 72 82 68 / 50 50 50 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
240 PM AST MON MAR 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS RACING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHEN IT MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS HAS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING RAPIDLY OUR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
NORTH. STILL EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE THROUGH PUERTO RICO LATE
TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT...ALL MODELS AGREED THAT A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...BUT AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST
TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 71 81 / 70 50 20 20
STT 72 83 71 82 / 50 50 20 20

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 8pmET Sun-8pmET Mon) for
Mon Mar 21 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 30.8C 87F 4.3mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.6C 85F 0.3mm
Couva, SW Trinidad 31.5C 89F 12.7mm
Pointe-a-Pierre, SW Trinidad 29.2C 85F 32.8mm
Crown Point, Tobago 28.1C 83F 0.2mm

Point Salines, Grenada 29.9C 86F 9.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.1C 86F trace
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 29.6C 85F
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 28.5C 84F

Canefield Airport, Dominica 29.9C 86F
Melville Hall Airport, Dominica 27.3C 81F 14.3mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 29.0C 84F 0.6mm

VC Bird Airport, Antigua 27.8C 82F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.2C 83F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.3C 83F 0.8mm

Owen Roberts, GRand Cayman 27.5C 82F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.3C 86F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 29.4C 85F
Havana, Cuba 28.4C 83F
Key West, Florida 26.7C 80F
Miami, Florida 26.7C 80F

Nassau, Bahamas 25.5C 78F
Hamilton, Bermuda 15.8C 60F trace

Hato AIrport, Curacao 27.4C 81F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 29.7C 86F 0.2mm
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 29.1C 85F

Cayenne, French Guiana 29.9C 86F 13.2mm

-justin-

[Macrocane]

-The temps were near normal today in Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama.
-Guatemala and Costa Rica were cooler than normal.
-In El Salvador the temps were near normal except in the higher areas like Las Pilas that had a much cooler than normal day.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 7.2°C (45.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19°C (66°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.9°C (64.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.2°C (46.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.2°C (37.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.0°C (59.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 26.1°C (79.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.6°C (58.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.4°C (101.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.9°C (76.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.5°C (54.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.1°C (68.2°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The cold front will move thru late today thru tommorow,bringing scattered showers,windy conditions and choppy seas.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST TUE MAR 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AND BECOME MORE GUSTY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC
IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING PATCHES OF SCT/BKN
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND BREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THE GFS IS FORECASTING PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 1.3 INCHES. BOTH
MODELS...THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWING MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
THE USVI...NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC...POSITIONING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA IS SLOWING
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN PR OR THE USVI BEFORE 23/06Z. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME MVFR
CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED THROUGH 23/04Z. LLVL WIND FLOW NE 15 TO 20 KT FROM 2-5 KFT
WINDS BCMG WLY ABV 15 KFT. SFC WINDS NE 5 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT NEAR SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION UP TO AROUND 21
KNOTS AND A NNE SHORTH-PERIOD SWELL BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET AFFECTING
THE COASTAL WATERS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALL
OF THE SURROUNDING WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 71 82 73 / 50 50 50 20
STT 82 72 83 74 / 50 50 50 20

[Macrocane]

Hi! It has been a very cold morning in El Salvador with well below average temps and moderate northerly in most of the country, I will post the obs later today but this post is to tell you that the SNET realeased yesterday a special report about San Miguel volcano because it has increased its micro-seismic activity, the last time that it happened was on August 2010 but it returned to normal values in September, it has also happened on 2006, 2008 and 2009 but in all of those years it happened during the rainy season and the experts have related the increased activity with periods of heavy rain, this year that's not the case as we're in the dry season.

The report says that the above normal activty began on March 13 when the RSAM (Real Time Seismic Amplitude Measurment) reached an average of 121 units when the normal value is 50 units, On March 19 it reached 414 and yesterday 234, they say that in the most probable case it will return to normal on the next few weeks but an eruption may not be discarded although other parameters like gas emissions are normal. The last time that the San Miguel volcano had an important eruption was on 1976.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST TUE MAR 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILL
AND LIFT OUT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGE THEN GRADUALLY BECOMING
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT MONDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT (OR ITS REMNANT) IS EXPECTED
TO SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LINGERING
NEARBY...STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST A PART OF WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR ENCOMPASSES THE LOCAL AREA. IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER LOCALLY...AS AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT...BUT AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS
"BIG DRYING" WILL TAKE PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS MOISTURE
TENDS TO LINGER AROUND...AT LEAST IN BANDS AND PATCHES...RESULTING
IN AT LEAST SOME PATCHY CLOUDINESS FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 FOOT RANGE DURING THE
PERIOD...BUT HIGHEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN NORTH SWELLS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GRADUAL DRYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
BUT STILL EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS AND NOT A PARTICULARLY
STRONG VENTILATING WIND SITUATION. BY THE WEEKEND...MUCH DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED AND WOULD EXPECT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WILD FIRE
THREAT THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 69 79 72 83 / 50 50 20 20
STT 72 83 74 85 / 50 50 20 20

[Macrocane]

Good afternoon. Two quakes have been felt today in El Salvador, one offshore Guatemala (magnitude 3.8) and another one in San Salvador (3.1), the last one was more sensible as it was just under San Salvador at a very shallow depth (1.8 miles). More info here El Salvador seismic activity

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Mon-8pmET Tues) for
Tue March 22 2011

OVERCAST AND UNSEASONALLY RAINY IN SOUTHERN WINDWARDS

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 30.0C 86F trace
Pointe-a-Pierre, SW Trinidad 28.7C 84F 13.7mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 28.7C 84F 8.9mm
Crown Point, Tobago 26.7C 80F 25.0mm

Point Salines, Grenada 25.8C 79F 11.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 28.1C 83F 3.8mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 26.5C 80F 69.4mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 28.7C 84F 7.0mm
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 29.0C 85F 1.0mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 29.1C 85F 10.0mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 30.3C 86F
LeRaizet, Guadeloupe 28.7C 84F 1.0mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 29.3C 85F 1.0mm

VC Bird, Antigua 27.7C 82F trace
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28,2C 83F 1.0mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 26.7C 80F 7.6mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 28.2C 83F
Kingston, Jamaica 29.6C 86F
Montego Bay, Jamacia 29.4C 85F
Havana, Cuba 28.5C 84F
Miami, Florida 27.2C 81F
Nassau, Bahamas 26.4C 79F
Hamilton, Bermuda 19.4C 67F 1.1mm

Cayenne, French Guiana 30.4C 86F 1.0mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

It was a pretty cool day in San Juan as a late cold front moved thru.

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         80    312 PM  92    1983  84     -4       87
  MINIMUM         69   1054 AM  63    1962  72     -3       74
  AVERAGE         75                        78     -3       81



[Macrocane]

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS IN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR

March continues its cooler than normal trend as today these 2 countries registered January-like minimum temps, Belize and Honduras were pretty cool as well. The maximum temps were seasonable in the case of Guatemala, Honduras and Belize but in El Salvador they were below normal, a good thing for President Obama who arrived today . The rest of the region had near normal temps. Moderate northerly winds were still blowing this morning but they have diminished tonight.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 20°C (68°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 11°C (52°F) Coldest since Feb 21.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -0.4°C (31.3°F) The 2nd freeze of the month.
Zacapa, Guatemala 14°C (57°F) Coldest of the year.
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.2°C (61.2°F) 2nd coldest of the month.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 7.2°C (45.0°F) Coldest since Feb 7.
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 15°C (59°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.4°C (39.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.7°C (58.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 27.3°C (81.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 29°C (84°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.3°C (86.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 16.8°C (62.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.6°C (99.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.2°C (59.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.3°C (68.5°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST WED MAR 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY THE GRADUAL FORMATION OF A RIDGE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY. THE JET OVER AND JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL LIKEWISE MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY REPLACE THE TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THE HIGH WILL BUILD THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS DYING OVER PUERTO RICO AND IT IS
LIKELY THAT IT WILL SAG A FEW TENS OF MILES FARTHER SOUTH TODAY.
THIS WILL HOLD MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE
EASTERLY ORIENTATION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL BECOME
FOCUSED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...BUT MOST DO NOT MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING...BUT SOME OPPOSITE CORNER CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE BETTER MOISTURE
LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. MORNING
AND AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN DIMINISH AND SHIFT MORE
TOWARD SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SECTORS RESPECTIVELY BEGINNING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. PATCHES OF
MOISTURE CONTINUE TO DRIFT BY...AUGMENTING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN THOSE AREAS...BUT THE STRONG RIDGE AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS SHOULD FINALLY BRING SOME DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE PRESENT PATTERN...ALTHOUGH THE GFS
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK THE FIRST OF APRIL...WHEN A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EVEN IF THIS IS ABLE TO MATERIALIZE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IMMEDIATELY AFTERWARD
AND TRADES WILL RETURN ALONG WITH DRIER WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT
FOLLOWING THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITES. SOME MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST 23/16Z. LLVL
WIND FLOW NE 10 TO 20 KT FROM JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO 5 KFT BCMG WLY
ABV 15 KFT. SFC WINDS NE 5 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR
SHWRS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE PEAKED IN THE ATLANTIC AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO END THURSDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
IN ALL EXPOSED WATERS SHOULD KEEP SEAS SOMEWHAT ROUGH AND CHOPPY
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AT LEAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 84 73 / 50 30 30 20
STT 83 72 84 74 / 50 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

VERY COLD MINIMUM TEMPS REGISTERED THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA

Hi! March continues with its colder than normal temperatures and this morning was the coldest in more than 2 months for Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador and one of the coldest of the year it felt more like December or January than March. Nicaragua and Costa Rica were colder than normal too. Usually I post the max and min temps at night but I think that these unseasonably cold temperatures deserve a separate post.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.9°C (64.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 10°C (50°F) Coldest since Jan 15.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.6°C (43.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 15°C (59°F) 2nd coldest for this year.
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.0°C (59.0°F) Coldest since Jan 9 and 3rd coldest of for this year.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 6.4°C (43.5°F) Coldest since Jan 10 and 3rd coldest for this year.
San Miguel, El Salvador 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 11°C (52°F) 2nd coldest for this year.
La Esperanza, Honduras 4°C (39°F) Coldest temperature for this year.
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.1°C (59.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 0.8°C (33.4°F) 2nd coldest for this year.
Panama city, Panama 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.9°C (58.8°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST WED MAR 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT LOOSENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THUS DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AS DRIER AND STABLE AIR CONTINUED TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. A FILLING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY LIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO A MORE ZONAL AND SUBSIDENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERED ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVED SOUTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LINGERING
MOISTURE LEAD TO A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWER MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR. SO FAR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS MOSTLY LIGHT AND OF SHORT
DURATION...AS DRIER AND STABLE AIR MOVED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM...FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL AND INFLUENCE
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TRADES
WILL STILL BRING FEW TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AT THE LOCAL TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 72 84 / 30 30 10 20
STT 72 84 74 85 / 30 30 20 20

[Macrocane]

After the very cold minimum temps registered this morning, Central America registered warm and a few very warm maximum temps this afternoon, they were near average though.

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.8°C (67.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.3°C (99.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.6°C (81.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.3°C (64.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.5°C (70.7°F)

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 8pmET Tues-8pmET Wed) for
Wed Mar 23 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 30.5C 87F 0.3mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.1C 85F 0.3mm
Crown Point, Tobago 28.4C 83F 1.2mm

Point Salines, Grenada 29.0C 84F 8.0mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.2C 85F 3.4mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 27.4C 81F 1.3mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 29.5C 85F 3.6mm
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 29.0C 84F 2.7mm

Melville Hall Airport, Dominica 29.5C 85F
Canefield Airport, Dominica 30.2C 86F
LeLamentin, Martinique 29.8C 86F

VC Bird, Antigua 27.9C 82F 0.3mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.4C 83F trace

St Croix, VI 28.9C 84F 2.3mm
St Thomas, VI 27.8C 82F trace
San Juan, Puerto Rico 27.8C 82F 0.3mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.3C 85F trace
Kingston, Jamaica 29.8C 86F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.3C 86F
Havana, Cuba 29.7C 86F
Key West, Florida 26.2C 79F
Miami, Florida 27.8C 82F
Nassau, Bahamas 26.8C 80F
Hamilton, Bermuda 19.5C 67F

Hato Airport, Curacao 28.0C 82F 0.8mm
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 29.5C 85F 1.0mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.3C 86F 0.2mm

Cayenne, French Guiana 29.0C 84F 25.0mm
Timehri, Guyana 27.0C 81F 18.0mm (thunderstorms)

-justin-

[Macrocane]

By the way, Happy World Mateorological Day!!!!!

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather for the most part is expected from today going into early next week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST THU MAR 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHEAST BRAZIL
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AND RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT CONTINUES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
MONTH.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. MID
LEVELS ARE DRY EXCEPT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE HIGH IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30
DEGREES NORTH CONTINUES INTO THE BEGINNING OF APRIL. FLOW WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SIT ON THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE DRIEST
AIR WITHIN 1000 MILES...BUT WITH FLOW TURNING EASTERLY IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT THAT DRIEST AIR WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA. HENCE THE SHOWERS
THAT CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AND ONTO THE EASTERN END OF PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWED CLOUDS BUT NO SHOWERS IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN OF PATCHY MOISTURE IN STEADILY
VEERING WIND FLOW...AND THE VAD PRODUCT OF THE DOPPLER SHOWS WINDS
HAVE DEFINITELY BECOME ALMOST SOUTHEAST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WILL
BRING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO TODAY...THOUGH SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
THE EXACT PATTERN OF SHOWERS IN THE AREA. ALSO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COAST WILL SEE SOME WARMING OVER THE COOL NORTHEAST FLOW OF
THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE TO TOP 85 DEGREES
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS MONTH IN SAN JUAN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

WITH MID LEVELS CONTINUING TO BE DRY...CONVECTION WILL NOT GROW
VERY DEEP EXCEPT IN VERY ISOLATED AREAS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORNING SHOWERS ARE NOT AS LARGE OR
AS HEAVY AS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WILL NOT DISAPPEAR
COMPLETELY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONTS MOVING OUT OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOT DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ONE THAT
IS DISSIPATING OVER AND JUST SOUTH OF US...THIS WILL ALSO BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED EXCEPT IN THE USUAL
SPOTS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE GFS SHOWS
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT 600 MB INCREASING CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AND
HOLDING UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD AID SHOWER
FORMATION...BUT MID LEVELS DRY OUT AGAIN AFTERWARD AND STAY THAT
WAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND A FEW PASSING SHWRS
WITH BASES AT OR ABOUT 3 KFT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM...TIST AND
TISX. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME AT ANY OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY AND
PROMISE TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF MARCH. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AND MAY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 85 74 / 20 10 20 20
STT 83 73 84 74 / 20 20 20 20