STORM2K

Yukon Cornelius wrote:It sure is discouraging when the local Mets go on and on about the beneficial rainfall for last night and today and so far not a drop and spotty drizzle today so far. Also, where has our severe weather been?

Finally some rain! I was dependent on it with the dollar amount of water activated herbicide I’ve put out over the last few days. I guess complaining sometimes works.

Ntxw wrote:SOI today is -15. For 7 days in a row now has been negative, the longest streak since Feb. 850mb U-winds in the equatorial Pacific is yielding westerlies to become a sig WWB. Regardless of what day to day model runs show, confidence in a significant flooding type rain event is increasing in the weeks ahead.

It is not happening in a vaccuum. Models have been toying with an EPAC system. Even if it does not materialize it does show the moistening up to our tropical linkage source region.

You think the Easteen ridge might hurt us next week? It might keep the system away enough . That’s my concern . I hope we do get something next week but that’s good news

Yukon Cornelius wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:It sure is discouraging when the local Mets go on and on about the beneficial rainfall for last night and today and so far not a drop and spotty drizzle today so far. Also, where has our severe weather been?

Finally some rain! I was dependent on it with the dollar amount of water activated herbicide I’ve put out over the last few days. I guess complaining sometimes works.

Water activated herbicide? Interesting. Usually herbicides (like Roundup) require it being dry to work (for at least two to 24 hours). The safer Vinegar alternative works best in the hot sun with my experience, unless it's poison ivy, then even Roundup won't work.

Haris wrote:

Ntxw wrote:SOI today is -15. For 7 days in a row now has been negative, the longest streak since Feb. 850mb U-winds in the equatorial Pacific is yielding westerlies to become a sig WWB. Regardless of what day to day model runs show, confidence in a significant flooding type rain event is increasing in the weeks ahead.

It is not happening in a vaccuum. Models have been toying with an EPAC system. Even if it does not materialize it does show the moistening up to our tropical linkage source region.

You think the Easteen ridge might hurt us next week? It might keep the system away enough . That’s my concern . I hope we do get something next week but that’s good news

I don't think so. Aside from making it warm for a few days, it may actually help the western half of the state. As long as the Pacific linkage is there a highway will be set up from Texas northeastward. Where exactly in that path is tbd.

12z cmc is a MAjOR storm while gfs is drier for N half of tx. But the capability of this storm is impressive ! Cmc I agree with more

weatherdude1108 wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:It sure is discouraging when the local Mets go on and on about the beneficial rainfall for last night and today and so far not a drop and spotty drizzle today so far. Also, where has our severe weather been?

Finally some rain! I was dependent on it with the dollar amount of water activated herbicide I’ve put out over the last few days. I guess complaining sometimes works.

Water activated herbicide? Interesting. Usually herbicides (like Roundup) require it being dry to work (for at least two to 24 hours). The safer Vinegar alternative works best in the hot sun with my experience, unless it's poison ivy, then even Roundup won't work.

Hyvar XL and Prodiamine 65 WDG. Well not technically water activated, more as I needed the rain to soak it in probably would have been better to say.

59F midday at DFW. Maybe a bit more warming but possibly not with rain moving in. This will add another below normal departure. We are getting close to coolest April ever if not top 3

Highland Lakes are still fairly cool, but warm enough to swim in.

Ntxw wrote:59F midday at DFW. Maybe a bit more warming but possibly not with rain moving in. This will add another below normal departure. We are getting close to coolest April ever if not top 3

Still in the upper 40s up here. It’s definitely been a pleasant month.

The 12z euro 500mb is verh weird or different ! What is that linear look called?

Ntxw wrote:59F midday at DFW. Maybe a bit more warming but possibly not with rain moving in. This will add another below normal departure. We are getting close to coolest April ever if not top 3

Hard to believe May is in 5 days and I still can't put the coat and jeans away

I was just out walking here at work in north Austin, and the mid-level clouds are wavy (like Winter), and it got really windy and gusty, with leaves and trash/dust blowing around. Not sure if this is a wind shift/outflow from something upstream, but I'm hoping it doesn't bust our chances for rain later today(?). Front should not have come through yet. Can't count how many times outflow has crushed our rain chances (too many). Meanwhile, our first severe thunderstorm warning in the EWX area today.

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
152 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018

TXC385-251915-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-180425T1915Z/
Real TX-
152 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN REAL COUNTY...

At 150 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Camp Wood, or
13 miles west of Leakey, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Leakey and Tuff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2964 9969 2962 9995 2963 9999 2978 10002
2989 9979
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 259DEG 22KT 2971 9998

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

weatherdude1108 wrote:I was just out walking here at work in north Austin, and the mid-level clouds are wavy (like Winter), and it got really windy and gusty, with leaves and trash/dust blowing around. Not sure if this is a wind shift/outflow from something upstream, but I'm hoping it doesn't bust our chances for rain later today(?). Front should not have come through yet. Can't count how many times outflow has crushed our rain chances (too many). Meanwhile, our first severe thunderstorm warning in the EWX area today.

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
152 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018

TXC385-251915-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-180425T1915Z/
Real TX-
152 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN REAL COUNTY...

At 150 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Camp Wood, or
13 miles west of Leakey, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Leakey and Tuff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2964 9969 2962 9995 2963 9999 2978 10002
2989 9979
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 259DEG 22KT 2971 9998

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

I’d be watching out W

Haris wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:I was just out walking here at work in north Austin, and the mid-level clouds are wavy (like Winter), and it got really windy and gusty, with leaves and trash/dust blowing around. Not sure if this is a wind shift/outflow from something upstream, but I'm hoping it doesn't bust our chances for rain later today(?). Front should not have come through yet. Can't count how many times outflow has crushed our rain chances (too many). Meanwhile, our first severe thunderstorm warning in the EWX area today.

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
152 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018

TXC385-251915-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-180425T1915Z/
Real TX-
152 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN REAL COUNTY...

At 150 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Camp Wood, or
13 miles west of Leakey, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Leakey and Tuff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2964 9969 2962 9995 2963 9999 2978 10002
2989 9979
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 259DEG 22KT 2971 9998

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

I’d be watching out W

Good sign. I guess the lift and shear from the parent low is strong enough to overcome cooling effects/stabilization of the front.

MCV???

Interesting model runs at 12z with shifts in both the GFS & Euro that weren't supported by their corresponding ensemble runs. So both of the ops appear to be outliers when compared to the ensemble means, Euro more so than GFS.

Haris wrote:


MCV???

Nice area of rain! Just drove in it from work on the way to a birthday party on Burnet Rd. Light steady rain with occasional thunder. Wish the rain were a little heavier. It would penetrate the soil better with how dry it has been. Not sure how long it will last, but should settle the dust for a bit.

52 degrees at DFW at 5pm! Amazing for April 25th

bubba hotep wrote:Interesting model runs at 12z with shifts in both the GFS & Euro that weren't supported by their corresponding ensemble runs. So both of the ops appear to be outliers when compared to the ensemble means, Euro more so than GFS.

Looking at ensembles , the entire state is in play! I noticed it too! Eps show 1-2” of rain in Austin too but also have it N

Haris wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Interesting model runs at 12z with shifts in both the GFS & Euro that weren't supported by their corresponding ensemble runs. So both of the ops appear to be outliers when compared to the ensemble means, Euro more so than GFS.

Looking at ensembles , the entire state is in play! I noticed it too! Eps show 1-2” of rain in Austin too but also have it N

I know we’re all starved for some exciting weather with the exception of N or NE TX cuz they’ve their fair share, but this is one of those situations where we should just be patient and temper expectations. We won’t really know till about Monday or Tuesday in my opinion on what’s going to happen. The operationals are flipping around with each run so I’d put more stock in the ensembles for now.