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Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:20 pm
by gpsnowman
Back from vacation where I did not see a temp above 80 for two weeks. And 50's for lows!!! That heat slapped me sideways upon exiting the plane this afternoon. And I see 110's are possible for this weekend. Plain awful. Summer can't end soon enough. It rained on all but two days during my trip, all falling in the evening, dropping temps considerably. Oh well it was fun while it lasted. This heat sucks.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:37 pm
by weatherdude1108
Portastorm wrote:On Thursday, the NWS office at Austin/San Antonio issued its first ever Excessive Heat Warning. That warning is currently in place for the hours 2-8 p.m. through Sunday (will likely be added for Monday too). That makes NWS El Paso as the only Texas-based NWSFO which hasn't issued a heat advisory or warning. Interesting.
Meanwhile, I know we're stoopid hot here in the Austin area but you good folks in North Texas have it even worse. Try to keep cool this weekend!
I have a feeling that
wxman57 is making us pay dearly for the snow last winter.
I already commented, but wanted to verify, are you sure about the first ever Excessive Heat Warning issued?
Only reason I ask is because San Antonio got to 111 degrees on September 5, 2000. It was also the day I proposed to my wife on the River Walk. I thought I was going to pass out.lol
Did they not have Excessive Heat warnings back then? I honestly don't remember(?).
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:17 pm
by Portastorm
Yeah weatherdude, I’m sure. Aaron Treadway from EWX reported it. And I do think it’s a relatively new product.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:30 pm
by Brent
been an amazing evening to walk in San Francisco... started as just a nice breeze and the closer I got to the water the cooler it got.... it was downright chilly on the somewhat fog-shrouded Golden Gate bridge earlier
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 5:32 am
by Ntxw
The forecast for DFW has become bleak. What was some relief may not make it and localized feedback from drought may persist the heat. Forecast now, though not as high as 105-110, for later in the week is still near 100.
Euro shows deep trough for summer late in run, to be seen if real.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:22 am
by aggiecutter
Both the GFS and EURO show a trough over the southern plains by months end. One more week of heat and it will be over.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:26 am
by bubba hotep
Today looks like it could be the hottest day of the year at DFW. As much as it sucks, big heat in late July & early August is just climo and heatwaves like this one occur every few years here in N. Texas. Climo is working against us right now but in about 3 weeks avgs start the down turn and then Fall will be in sight!
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:48 am
by Haris
aggiecutter wrote:Both the GFS and EURO show a trough over the southern plains by months end. One more week of heat and it will be over.
Possibly but 240 hour model outputs never verify most of the time. But I hope so. In this pattern though , it is best to go with hot and dry and be persistent rather than forecasting rain. It is the BEST way to go once your locked in this pattern for a while! Example of how the chance of rain Tuesday has disappeared
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:43 pm
by gpsnowman
101 on my phone at 12:40 this afternoon. My goodness, that is not right.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:50 pm
by TheProfessor
The good news for me is that I will be heading back to Ohio 21 days from now, but I'd like a break from this heat before then.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:56 pm
by FunNestlé
Haris wrote:Possibly but 240 hour model outputs never verify most of the time. But I hope so. In this pattern though , it is best to go with hot and dry and be persistent rather than forecasting rain. It is the BEST way to go once your locked in this pattern for a while! Example of how the chance of rain Tuesday has disappeared
The patterns aren't "locked in," but only seem that way based on net result. In reality, they are simply side effects of each other. The fluidity of weather patterns across the US and the world is a key feature to make note of.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:09 pm
by Ntxw
There are some clouds out there that have prevented the temps from running away today compared to previous days. Unforeseen? Still hot but maybe won't hit 110?
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:21 pm
by TheProfessor
It was talked about within the office on Monday, however at the time it was fairly uncertain and some of the guidance was way over doing to cloud coverage lol.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:29 pm
by bubba hotep
Pretty good D10 agreement on the 12z runs
Now let's see if we can roll this forward and get it inside D7
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:08 pm
by bubba hotep
DFW is warming at about the same rate as yesterday, 106 at last report.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:33 pm
by weatherdude1108
TheProfessor wrote:It was talked about within the office on Monday, however at the time it was fairly uncertain and some of the guidance was way over doing to cloud coverage lol.
I'm ONLY 100 at my house at 3:30pm, with a chance of rain in 12 to 24 hours.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:48 pm
by Ralph's Weather
FunNestlé wrote:Haris wrote:Possibly but 240 hour model outputs never verify most of the time. But I hope so. In this pattern though , it is best to go with hot and dry and be persistent rather than forecasting rain. It is the BEST way to go once your locked in this pattern for a while! Example of how the chance of rain Tuesday has disappeared
The patterns aren't "locked in," but only seem that way based on net result. In reality, they are simply side effects of each other. The fluidity of weather patterns across the US and the world is a key feature to make note of.
Agreed, the current heat is not the result of a death ridge. The pattern is not stuck and troughs are coming down into the southern US. We are currently between the ridge and trough. Models indicate that by the end of the month we will see our own trough.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:50 pm
by weatherdude1108
Ralph's Weather wrote:FunNestlé wrote:Haris wrote:Possibly but 240 hour model outputs never verify most of the time. But I hope so. In this pattern though , it is best to go with hot and dry and be persistent rather than forecasting rain. It is the BEST way to go once your locked in this pattern for a while! Example of how the chance of rain Tuesday has disappeared
The patterns aren't "locked in," but only seem that way based on net result. In reality, they are simply side effects of each other. The fluidity of weather patterns across the US and the world is a key feature to make note of.
Agreed, the current heat is not the result of a death ridge. The pattern is not stuck and troughs are coming down into the southern US. We are currently between the ridge and trough. Models indicate that by the end of the month we will see our own trough.
I noticed it looked more rainy down here at the end of the run on the GFS.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:52 pm
by Ntxw
108F so far per NWS at DFW
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:19 pm
by Ntxw