STORM2K

cheezyWXguy wrote:

bubba hotep wrote:Tough pattern FWD had 60% coverage for this afternoon, then lowered it to 30%, then we got nothing. Now the 3k NAM has this for tomorrow evening??

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest-conus/dallas/refc/1590105600/1590192000-POyepy5I26U.png

Just saw that. Spc is going to have to expand that slight risk south if that run starts a trend.

Big change from earlier today

Enhanced risk

. A COUPLE
STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS, WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FROM BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS AND FORT WORTH
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR MCALESTER, OKLAHOMA.

Brent wrote:Enhanced risk

. A COUPLE
STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS, WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FROM BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS AND FORT WORTH
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR MCALESTER, OKLAHOMA.

https://i.ibb.co/PcFH410/swody1-tornadoprob-2.png

Well that puts me in the crosshairs? What changed? Went from 0-60 like that....... will this be one of those days where people are caught off guard with the holiday weekend?

So not much mention of a Tornado threat in the NWS FWD graphics, yet SPC has a hatched area of sig...... what am I missing? FWD seems to think a later evening event for DFW.

Decent upgrade and shift to the south. I will hold off on warning the friends as they are starting to think of me as the boy who cried wolf.

Latest update from Jeff Lindner:

Stormy weather pattern will begin this weekend and last through much of next week.

Upper level ridge of high pressure that has brought the heat and dry weather this week will break down today and Saturday allowing a slow moving trough to move into TX. Upper level pattern over the US will become “blocked” with high pressure on both the east and west coasts and low pressure over the central US. This setup will likely remain in place through the next 5-7 days.

As the upper level trough digs into TX Saturday and Sunday, rain chances will begin to increase. Capping seen today and for much of Saturday over SE TX will erode and by Sunday the air mass will be very capable of producing periods of showers and thunderstorms. Gulf moisture will continue to flow into the region for much of the next 5-7 days with PWS values of 1.8-2.2 inches nearly daily for this period which will help to fuel heavy rainfall. Some severe weather will also be possible each day, but the heavy rainfall threat is likely the bigger concern moving forward.

Complexes of thunderstorms will develop over portions of west and central TX today and Saturday and move toward SE TX, but likely fall apart before reaching the area. Complexes will have a better chance of reaching the area starting Sunday and into next week. Formation of a slow moving and meandering upper level low over west TX late this weekend and much of next week will only help to enhance and focus rain chances.

Forecasted rainfall amounts over the next 5-7 days will likely average 2-4 inches over much of the area…especially west of I-45 and isolated higher totals. Heavy rainfall is looking likely on Sunday and especially Monday for SE TX and we will need to closely monitor this period. Flooding will be possible with this pattern setup from this weekend into much of next week, especially as grounds begin to saturate producing more and more run-off. Given the widespread and repeated nature of the pattern of storm complexes rises on area rivers will be likely with the focus being across the Brazos and Colorado basins to start.

This is a weather pattern that could potentially produce a lot of impacts so it deserves attention.

Forecasted Rainfall Amounts (5 days):
Day 10 image not available

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
713-684-4000 (main) | 713-684-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

HockeyTx82 wrote:So not much mention of a Tornado threat in the NWS FWD graphics, yet SPC has a hatched area of sig...... what am I missing? FWD seems to think a later evening event for DFW.

There will be some isolated risk initially but at this time isn't looking like anything major. Best bet is a line coming south out of the Red River valley late in the afternoon and evening hours. Any supercells that do form ahead will have good conditions to work with though.

HRRR keeps putting big storms just W NW of DFW around 5PM.

Trend to watch for? Anyone else seeing what I am talking about?


Well the tornado threat from SPC went down, looks more hail now.

Looks to be a very fluid situation. When should we expect storms to start up at this point?

The HRRR does have a huge line just north of DFW. Tech WRF has two rounds.

Morning sounding from FWD was strongly capped and it looks like that is still holding strong, notice the rolling waves of low clouds behind the outflow. Now the question is how far south does that outflow move and does it stabilize things behind it? We got shutout by the outflow last week but were able to rebound with the big rain event the following day. Today's outflow is coming in much earlier in the day and looks like it might be washing out as most stations across DFW are still reporting southerly winds. Also, notice the cloud streets racing north from southern Texas, indicative of moist unstable air flowing northward.

HRRRs have really backed off on storms across N. TX later on today. I wonder if there is just too much subsidence left in the wake of the overnight MCS that moved just to our north?

bubba hotep wrote:HRRRs have really backed off on storms across N. TX later on today. I wonder if there is just too much subsidence left in the wake of the overnight MCS that moved just to our north?

McCauley still thinks it's a go. HRRR hasn't been showing much for a while and has sort of been all over the place to me.

The HRRR seems to back off only to add it back before, so hopefully it’s wrong. Put some weed-killer down and need it watered in.

Severe thunderstorm watch issued for west of DFW. Odd not to include DFW since that's where the core will come through assuming it happens.

rwfromkansas wrote:Severe thunderstorm watch issued for west of DFW. Odd not to include DFW since that's where the core will come through assuming it happens.

If you look at the

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0668.html

DFW and others are on the other side of the outflow. Perhaps it a little further SSW the thought earlier and will limit our severity? I think Bubba mentioned something about this earlier maybe making a difference.

HockeyTx82 wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:Severe thunderstorm watch issued for west of DFW. Odd not to include DFW since that's where the core will come through assuming it happens.

If you look at the

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0668.html

DFW and others are on the other side of the outflow. Perhaps it a little further SSW the thought earlier and will limit our severity? I think Bubba mentioned something about this earlier maybe making a difference.

Maybe that's it. IMBY it's still 88 degrees with a good dewpoint and the wind is still SE for the boundary being south of me. But, maybe it will stabilize things enough.

HockeyTx82 wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:Severe thunderstorm watch issued for west of DFW. Odd not to include DFW since that's where the core will come through assuming it happens.

If you look at the

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0668.html

DFW and others are on the other side of the outflow. Perhaps it a little further SSW the thought earlier and will limit our severity? I think Bubba mentioned something about this earlier maybe making a difference.

I don’t think this will be a major issue today. The outflow boundary likely stunts our potential for initial development, which is why it forecast to occur to our west. However, the atmosphere should recover sufficiently for these storms to meander into the dfw area. Things may get going as the low level jet kicks up later, according to the spc. If coverage is low these storms may miss the area as the hrrr shows, but it tends to underdo coverage, and the environment overall still seems supportive. Overall it doesn’t seem like the hrrr has performed well so far this year.