STORM2K

Ntxw wrote:With today and tomorrow left for July below is the monthly average standings. Many of these locations also experienced their warmest May and June on record. If you account beyond the typical JJA meteorological season, most of these sites will have experienced once August is complete the warmest May-June-July-???? period. Which means one of the longest, hottest if not the most, start to any summer as a whole while the ending is tbd.

These are sites that will likely set the new July record warmest.
Houston (IAH) 88.1F (record 87.5F)
Galveston 88.5F (record 87.4F)
College Station 90.9F (record 89.1F)
Austin 90.6F (record 89.7F)

Sites that are close and may tie or beat.
San Antonio 89.8F (record 90F)

Sites that may come up just short.
DFW 91.7F ( record 92F)
Wichita Falls 90.5F (record 92.9)

Texoz wrote:20 years is probably too short of a timescale to judge if a new climatic pattern for Texas summer is emerging, but it sure feels like it. Would the current conditions push any tropical systems away from Texas? Toward Mexico or Louisiana?

Ntxw wrote:

Texoz wrote:20 years is probably too short of a timescale to judge if a new climatic pattern for Texas summer is emerging, but it sure feels like it. Would the current conditions push any tropical systems away from Texas? Toward Mexico or Louisiana?

The extremes (max, mins) may not exceed that of the past (though all records are meant to be broken eventually at some point) but the overall average is creeping upwards. So each 'really' hot summer has the potential to exceed that of the past, not because of wild high temperatures 115F but consistently warmer lows and above normal highs sustain. This is true by numbers for both urban and non urban areas.

Tropical system? We really needed it in June/July and potentially August, and so far has not delivered. Not that I'm saying no to rain from any source but if it waits too late then we might as well get it from the fall transition, that kind of rain pattern is better anyway long term.

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

Texoz wrote:20 years is probably too short of a timescale to judge if a new climatic pattern for Texas summer is emerging, but it sure feels like it. Would the current conditions push any tropical systems away from Texas? Toward Mexico or Louisiana?

The extremes (max, mins) may not exceed that of the past (though all records are meant to be broken eventually at some point) but the overall average is creeping upwards. So each 'really' hot summer has the potential to exceed that of the past, not because of wild high temperatures 115F but consistently warmer lows and above normal highs sustain. This is true by numbers for both urban and non urban areas.

Tropical system? We really needed it in June/July and potentially August, and so far has not delivered. Not that I'm saying no to rain from any source but if it waits too late then we might as well get it from the fall transition, that kind of rain pattern is better anyway long term.

Yeah and it also matters where the weather service places its thermometers at each station. Stations should be placed away from artificial terrain such as concrete and asphalt, but I'm not sure how many are. I have seen some interesting discrepancies of temperature data near an official NWS station. Nearby stations have been consistently recording temperatures as much as 5 degrees cooler. Things like this have a big impact on climate data. I was told to request an audit of the station, but not sure where you do that.

Ntxw wrote:With today and tomorrow left for July below is the monthly average standings. Many of these locations also experienced their warmest May and June on record. If you account beyond the typical JJA meteorological season, most of these sites will have experienced once August is complete the warmest May-June-July-???? period. Which means one of the longest, hottest if not the most, start to any summer as a whole while the ending is tbd.

[...]

TheAustinMan wrote:

Ntxw wrote:With today and tomorrow left for July below is the monthly average standings. Many of these locations also experienced their warmest May and June on record. If you account beyond the typical JJA meteorological season, most of these sites will have experienced once August is complete the warmest May-June-July-???? period. Which means one of the longest, hottest if not the most, start to any summer as a whole while the ending is tbd.

[...]

I was poking around xmACIS either yesterday or the day before to see which stations were close to or beating their records for hottest July average temperatures. The map below isn't all of the stations (just an arbitrary bunch of them) but it seems like much of the state is having the warmest or near-warmest July on record. Definitely quite a hot one this year, and unfortunately coupled with persistent drought.

Rank of July 2022 Average Temperature (1 represents warmest July on record) as of July 28 (Source: xmACIS)
https://i.imgur.com/ISCjy31.png

Ntxw wrote:

captainbarbossa19 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:
The extremes (max, mins) may not exceed that of the past (though all records are meant to be broken eventually at some point) but the overall average is creeping upwards. So each 'really' hot summer has the potential to exceed that of the past, not because of wild high temperatures 115F but consistently warmer lows and above normal highs sustain. This is true by numbers for both urban and non urban areas.

Tropical system? We really needed it in June/July and potentially August, and so far has not delivered. Not that I'm saying no to rain from any source but if it waits too late then we might as well get it from the fall transition, that kind of rain pattern is better anyway long term.

Yeah and it also matters where the weather service places its thermometers at each station. Stations should be placed away from artificial terrain such as concrete and asphalt, but I'm not sure how many are. I have seen some interesting discrepancies of temperature data near an official NWS station. Nearby stations have been consistently recording temperatures as much as 5 degrees cooler. Things like this have a big impact on climate data. I was told to request an audit of the station, but not sure where you do that.

The question some have for that is, does that really represent where people actually live? Sure asphalt and concrete is going to be warmer but so is your neighborhood vs a park or grassy meadow. Always good to question readings but lots of debate as to where measurements should be made.

South Texas Storms wrote:The latest model guidance is in decent agreement that the ridge will shift north of the region in about a week. This should open the door to easterly waves moving in from the Gulf. The much needed pattern change will likely lead to some slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances returning to much of the state. The best rain chances are expected across southeast Texas.

Cpv17 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:The latest model guidance is in decent agreement that the ridge will shift north of the region in about a week. This should open the door to easterly waves moving in from the Gulf. The much needed pattern change will likely lead to some slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances returning to much of the state. The best rain chances are expected across southeast Texas.

I think the 11th through 20th is when the Atlantic basin will see Danielle form. I’m honestly really surprised by how busy the EPAC has been. I’ll admit there’s starting to be a little bit of doubt about this season creeping into my head but I still think we’ll have an above normal season but we’re gonna need the EPAC to chill tf out!

Fairly typical August weather pattern will be in place over SE TX this week.

Upper level low pressure system moving westward into the northern Mexican coast this morning will surge a plume of tropical moisture into the area today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore currently will develop inland along the seabreeze front over the next several hours with daytime heating. Once temperatures reach the low to mid 90’s scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop.

Drier air mass sweeps inland on Tuesday and Wednesday with reduced rain chances both days (but not zero) as still expect some isolated to widely scattered activity along the seabreeze front.

Upper level low pressure system will move westward over the Gulf late this week and into the TX coast Friday-Saturday. Deep tropical moisture will accompany this feature and progress inland across much of SE TX by Friday. Rain chances will once again increase with activity focused near the coast and offshore during the overnight and early morning hours and then spreading inland during the day. Moisture values will be into the tropical levels by late week (PWS of 2.0-2.2 inches) and this will support rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour under the heavier storms.

Note:

July 2022 ended as the warmest July ever recorded at Galveston, Houston, and College Station.

Galveston recorded 15 straight days of a low temperature of 85 degrees or above (old record was 7). The low for Galveston of 86 on 8 different days in July was a new record maximum for the low temperature…8 different times!

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

Brent wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:The latest model guidance is in decent agreement that the ridge will shift north of the region in about a week. This should open the door to easterly waves moving in from the Gulf. The much needed pattern change will likely lead to some slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances returning to much of the state. The best rain chances are expected across southeast Texas.

I think the 11th through 20th is when the Atlantic basin will see Danielle form. I’m honestly really surprised by how busy the EPAC has been. I’ll admit there’s starting to be a little bit of doubt about this season creeping into my head but I still think we’ll have an above normal season but we’re gonna need the EPAC to chill tf out!

Yeah I'm having the same doubt but we have to remember it's still early. Many seasons have just flipped practically overnight in mid late August. The EPAC being so active has definitely shocked me though and yeah they have to stop

lukem wrote:

Brent wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:
I think the 11th through 20th is when the Atlantic basin will see Danielle form. I’m honestly really surprised by how busy the EPAC has been. I’ll admit there’s starting to be a little bit of doubt about this season creeping into my head but I still think we’ll have an above normal season but we’re gonna need the EPAC to chill tf out!

Yeah I'm having the same doubt but we have to remember it's still early. Many seasons have just flipped practically overnight in mid late August. The EPAC being so active has definitely shocked me though and yeah they have to stop

Wouldn't an active EPAC be good for Texas rain chances in the fall?