Texas Spring 2025

[South Texas Storms]

I've often said when we're under these long droughts we typically bust out with a flooding event of some sort (whether it be pattern driven or of tropical origin).

While I'm not suggesting we're about to cash in to a point where the drought is completely erased (that would take some doing and probably too much of a good thing), I do continue to feel good about the opportunities on the table that lie ahead next week and perhaps beyond. Lots to watch over the coming days.

That’s promising coming from a very conservative person like yourself.

I'll be very surprised if you get less than 1 inch in the next 10 days. Should have several rounds of good rain chances through early May.

[wxman22]

An Enhanced Risk may be needed Tuesday, per the SPC Day 3 afternoon discussion. This stormy pattern has been almost non stop since mid April up here with over 6 inches of rain this month so far. We could make a run at 10 inches for the month depending on where the heaviest rains end up this week. Hopefully as we move into May the heavier rains will expand further south into the state.

...TX/OK...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through the period
along a convectively modulated, quasi-stationary baroclinic zone.
This renders enough uncertainty to mitigate a corridor of greater
severe potential, but a mesoscale-driven Enhanced Risk may be needed
in later outlooks. Adequate mid-level southwesterlies will persist
through the period for supercells, with most guidance hinting at
training convection along the west/southwest to east-northeast
oriented portion of the zone near the Red River. More probable
scenario for very large hail should exist to the southwest of that
corridor, with a few dryline supercells favored in the late
afternoon to early evening.

..Grams.. 04/27/2025

[Stratton23]

That Euro 00z run is an absolute doozy

[wxman22]

Enhanced Risk issued today.

[Edwards Limestone]

Based on the ensembles, the bullseye for this week/next week's precip looks to be N/NE TX and Oklahoma.

[ElectricStorm]

For OK/TX, probably going to see splitting supercells as we approach 0z (and probably into the night) Best chance for a tornado might be near the Red River around Wichita Falls or a little west. SPC added a small 10# area at the 13z update but removed it at the previous update. Honestly surprised it was even added in the first place as that area seems too far west for sigtor potential to me but we'll see. Probably going to see at least some big hailers and probably a couple tors. Luckily forcing in very weak down here compared to further north otherwise this would be a much more dangerous event.

[wxman22]

Afternoon update

OK/TX...
Strong heating occurring along a dryline that will extend from
western OK into west TX. Large-scale forcing mechanisms are weak
across this region, but a consensus of CAM solutions show scattered
intense thunderstorm development over southwest OK/northwest TX by
mid-afternoon, and further development southward during the evening.
Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible across this region.

[wxman22]

Mesoscale Discussion 0588
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into western/central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 282033Z - 282300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed this afternoon as
storms are expected to develop along the dryline in the next 2-3
hours. All severe hazards will be possible. The tornado threat will
steadily increase from late afternoon into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Signs of mid-level ascent have been evident across the
southern Plains with visible satellite showing increasing amounts of
mid/high-level clouds moving in from the southwest. As a shortwave
perturbation lifts northeastward this afternoon/evening, this ascent
and additional surface heating should erode capping along/near the
dryline. A high-based storm has already formed northeast of Fort
Stockton in the last hour. Additional storms are expected to develop
later this afternoon, perhaps within the next 2-3 hours.

The environment will be quite favorable for supercells capable of
all severe hazards. Very steep mid-level lapse rates were observed
within the High Plains region on this mornings soundings. Large to
potentially giant hail will be possible along with severe winds.
Tornadoes will also be possible, particularly from southwest
Oklahoma into the Texas Rolling Plains where dewpoints have remained
in the upper 60s/low 70s F. The tornado threat will steadily
increase with time as 850 mb winds increase east of the dryline from
late afternoon into the evening. A strong tornado cannot be ruled
out within this more favorable mesoscale zone.

..Wendt/Hart.. 04/28/2025

[wxman22]

[Brent]

Looks like somebody up here is gonna make a run for the wettest April ever yikes. Tulsa only needs about 3 inches

[wxman22]

[Brent]

And there it is... Someone just posted about historic flooding here

[ElectricStorm]

Severe thunderstorm warning with hail here now

[WeatherNewbie]

That line between midland and Lubbock looks nasty.

[wxman22]

Another Enhanced Risk issued today.

West TX into the Ozarks...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected across the southern
Plains in the vicinity of the surface front, with widely scattered
diurnal development also possible along the southward trailing
dryline into the Permian Basin vicinity. Strong midlevel flow east
of the Southwest trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for
storm organization, within a moderate to strongly unstable
environment near/south of the front. Occasional supercells will be
possible, with a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts,
and a few tornadoes. One or more clusters are likely to develop and
spread eastward, which could provide localized swaths of more
concentrated strong/severe gusts. The favored corridor of any such
clusters remains somewhat uncertain, with the front expected to
gradually sag south with time.

[Iceresistance]

Sorry for no posting, but last night was WILD, I had quarter sized hail from a storm that went over me. I also managed to film the lightning from last night. I will post the video and the hail pictures when it's all set and done

[Tejas89]

Good article on the front page of the DMN this past Sunday about how the country’s dividing line between the arid west and humid east is shifting eastward from the 100th parallel and now sits on top of major metros like DFW and Austin.

One of the takeaways…Texas can expect summer to expand to April to November by the end of the century with droughts and 100* days continuing to increase.

Also some interesting background on John Wesley Powell and how he influenced govt policy on climate in the late 1800s. Worth a read!

[wxman22]

Higher Tornado probabilities may be needed today per SPC.

Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both
along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and
along the dryline in West TX as the airmass destabilizes. Strong
buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west
TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level
convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the
primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm
proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to
significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential
may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger
southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may
overlap. Current guidance suggests this would be over northwest TX,
but uncertainty exists regarding the outflow/cold front and surface
low positions, precluding the confidence needed to outlook higher
tornado probabilities.

[txtwister78]

Appears tomorrow will be a conditional day for severe weather down across SC TX, specifically around the SA metro points east with the surging dryline from the west. Better dynamics to work with to our NE with the frontal boundary up there, however with some of the severe weather parameters in place tomorrow further south, should we get a storm or two to fire along the dryline, we could see some big damaging hail.

Current hi-res models as expected with that kind of setup are going to be hit or miss so definitely a day to watch real-time trends.

[South Texas Storms]

Appears tomorrow will be a conditional day for severe weather down across SC TX, specifically around the SA metro points east with the surging dryline from the west. Better dynamics to work with to our NE with the frontal boundary up there, however with some of the severe weather parameters in place tomorrow further south, should we get a storm or two to fire along the dryline, we could see some big damaging hail with any storm that manages to develop.

Current hi-res models as expected with that kind of setup are going to be hit or miss so definitely a day to watch real-time trends.

I'm not expecting much tomorrow south of north TX, but better chances will likely expand southward as a cold front pushes through Thursday into Friday. Still like you said, if anything pops tomorrow it could be strong to severe.