Florida Weather

[NDG]

I prefer to reference this feature as an Easterly Wave versus a Tropical Wave, I always thought that TWs originate in Africa something this feature did not originate from.

[HURRICANELONNY]

True it's not a tropical wave. Wasn't introduced at any time as a wave axis. It's a inverted trough that soaked the bahamas.

[gatorcane]

Update on the anomalous pattern for South Florida:

THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
WILL THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND
ONE-HALF INCH AND IF THIS VERIFIES WOULD BE SOME OF THE DRIEST
AIR FOR MAY IN SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE 1948. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY
WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG BOTH
COASTS WHICH ARE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE. THE LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[HURRICANELONNY]

I read that discussion the other day. Couldn't believe models wouldn't change or stall the front here. That's one heck of a east coast trough for this time of year. Keep them coming. Even though I think that's would be the last.

[SouthFloridian92]

I think the rainy season has officially begun.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well yes and no. It will be abnormally dry for the next week. With no more rain in sight.

Long term (monday-thursday)... the extended period will remain dry as a middle/upper level ridge amplifies across the Gulf of Mexico. This will place South Florida under the influence of a dry northwest flow aloft through next week. Forecast soundings show precipitable water remaining under an inch along with very stable conditions. The average start date of the wet season is around may 20th so it appears it will be delayed this year.

[gatorcane]

Rainy season hasn't officially started yet but we can see that we are gradually transitioning.

[northjaxpro]

This is some trough over the Eastern U.S. The cold front came through last night, and much cooler and drier air has infiltrated the region. Recorded a low of 55 degrees earlier this morning with brisk NW winds. The weather today is about as good as it gets for mid-May with virtually no humidity and temps are only expected toreach the mid-70s.

[asd123]

After this brief cool down, there will be a heat wave coming. starting on the 22nd, low 90's are forecasted for central Florida, and then mid to upper 90s for the 23rd and 24th. Additionally the GFS and GEM show possible mid to upper 90's highs for the 23rd and 24th. What's even more impressive, if you got to the link below and go to hour 156 8pm on the 23rd the model shows temps around 90 degrees in west central Florida and southwest Florida with some pockets in southwest Florida being in the low 90s at 8pm! The GFS and ECMWF show possible 20 Celsius 850 MB temps for Central Florida. Additionally, according to the Weather Channel and the GFS model that I looked at, there is no chances of rain, but if you look at the GEM Canadian model, it shows the daily sea breeze storms forming with the blistering heat.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/ (Go to Southeast U.S. and then select MSLP Precip Rate, and also look at 2m air temp) Notice starting with the 23rd from hour 156 on, the model shows what appears to be daily sea breeze storms forming with the heat of the day between about 2 and 8 pm each day. Could this be the start of the rainy season?

[NDG]

With the mid level/heat ridge finding a home across the gulf coast and FL Peninsula I doubt much afternoon/seabreeze showers will form over the next week despite temps well into the 90s inland.

[gatorcane]

The average start date of the rainy season in South Florida is today May 20th but it appears it will not start anytime soon.

[TheStormExpert]

The average start date of the rainy season in South Florida is today May 20th but it appears it will not start anytime soon.

It most likely won't start till June at this point.

So far this May we supposedly are slightly above average in our monthly rainfall here in West Palm Beach, FL. But where I live about 15mins. north in Palm Beach Gardens, FL the lakes have been pretty dried up looking. So all in all I feel that this May has been drier than average, especially compared to the last two Mays!

[asd123]

The heat wave is still forecasted to come Friday and Saturday. Temps are forecasted to be in the mid to upper 90s. Possible sea breeze storms on Saturday and Sunday. One thing that's kind of confusing to me is that from Monday on, some forecasts call for daily sea breeze storms (low chances), while other forecasts keep it dry.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the hottest temps of the early summer season is set to happen the next few days as the upper ridge gets established over the region. Westerly winds will keep the seabreeze pinned down and prevent the cooling relief we get from them the next few days. Also, with upper ridge in place, no releif in the form of rain is in sight for quite awhile. Max temps expected to reach the mid 90s today right into at least Saturday.

[asd123]

:uarrow: Yeah, the hottest temps of the early summer season is set to happen the next few days as the upper ridge gets established over the region. Westerly winds will keep the seabreeze pinned down and prevent the cooling relief we get from them the next few days. Also, with upper ridge in place, no releif in the form of rain is in sight for quite awhile. Max temps expected to reach the mid 90s today right into at least Saturday.

NOAA NWS forecast for Orlando: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 350SoROW1s. From Tuesday on, there is forecasted to be a 30 percent daily chance of rain and storms. Based on my interpretation, I think that the rainy season will be declared mid next week. In my opinion, NWS is getting more confident on the moisture increase with the afternoon heating and seabreezes pattern. The models ECMF and Canadian have been showing daily seabreeze storms, and now the GFS is slowly moistening up.

[asd123]

It looks like the wet season will be arriving next week, according to the NWS: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
Go down to the paragraph that says next week, and read the last sentence.

[TheStormExpert]

I would say the Rainy Season has already started especially for Inland and Western parts of South Florida with showers and storms slowly drifting from East to West.

[asd123]

GFS Control has been hinting at a huge rain event and maybe some tropical depression force winds possible for southwest Florida. Check out this page for the QPFs, and look at the southwest corner of Florida: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/qpf.shtml?SER2. Those are some pretty large amounts, especially since the majority is forecasted to fall within 2 days. Within this map, I clicked on St. Petersburg, Florida, and they are forecasted to get almost 9 and a half inches of rain, with the majority of it falling within the 5th and 7th of June. Wind is forecasted along with the rain too, check it out for yourselves!

On another note, like I said earlier, the GFS control has been pretty consistent on this scenario, so let's see what it brings!

Also to add something else, the operational GFS doesn't seem to pushy on the rain, but the control has been very consistent.

And finally, hopefully anyone with knowledge of the subject or a pro met can answer the question: What are the advantages and disadvantages of the GFS Control, Operational, ensemble, and which is the most optimum tool in forecasting?

[HURRICANELONNY]

Wouldn't put much on long range. Consistence and support from models is a key. I think the Euro shunts the moisture south while GFS is consistent in bringing moisure north here on the east coast. Here's a tidbit I posted on the tropical board:

Models then diverge significantly next week. The GFS continues to depict an area of low pressure developing across the northwestern Caribbean and pushing northward into the Gulf of Mexico. The European model (ecmwf)...on the other hand...keeps the bulk of the moisture well south with upper ridging building into the western Gulf of Mexico.

[asd123]

GFS Control has been hinting at a huge rain event and maybe some tropical depression force winds possible for southwest Florida. Check out this page for the QPFs, and look at the southwest corner of Florida: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/qpf.shtml?SER2. Those are some pretty large amounts, especially since the majority is forecasted to fall within 2 days. Within this map, I clicked on St. Petersburg, Florida, and they are forecasted to get almost 9 and a half inches of rain, with the majority of it falling within the 5th and 7th of June. Wind is forecasted along with the rain too, check it out for yourselves!

On another note, like I said earlier, the GFS control has been pretty consistent on this scenario, so let's see what it brings!

Also to add something else, the operational GFS doesn't seem to pushy on the rain, but the control has been very consistent.

And finally, hopefully anyone with knowledge of the subject or a pro met can answer the question: What are the advantages and disadvantages of the GFS Control, Operational, ensemble, and which is the most optimum tool in forecasting?

Make that 14 inches with the 18z update