Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Let's see if the trough moves closer to Puerto Rico to cause plenty of rain that we need badly.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST TUE APR 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
AMERICA...EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...WILL FILL BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...CREATING VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DETECTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
JUST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA SO FAR THIS
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA...EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND TO THE ATLANTIC FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD CLOSER
OR ACROSS PUERTO RICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...INCREASING THE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION
WITH A JET SEGMENT JUST OVERHEAD...WILL RESULT IN AN OVERALL
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AT
THIS TIME...THE MOST ACTIVE AFTERNOONS WOULD APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. IN FACT PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE STEADILY FROM AROUND
1.00 INCH THIS MORNING TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A GENERALLY
IMPROVE IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
ISOLD PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE OVR TIST AND TISX FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
AFT 12/17Z...TEMPO MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS PSBL IN
ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PR INCLUDING TJMZ AND TJPS. TEMPO MVFR CONDS IN SHRA ACROSS TNCM
AND TKPK THROUGH THE DAY. BKN-OVC CIGS BTW 20-34K FT ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. WND BLO 15K FT FM NE AT 5-15 KTS...BCMG SW AND INCR
WITH HT TO A MAX WND NR 100 KTS BTW 35-40K FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 84 73 / 30 50 60 40
STT 84 74 85 75 / 30 50 60 40

[tropicana]

Tue Apr 12 2011..7am ET

A trough of Low Pressure has disrupted the normal fair weather pattern usually associated with mid-April in the Eastern Caribbean. Torrential rainfall has been reported throughout the night in St Lucia, St Vincent and in Barbados.

There are confirmed reports of rivers overflowing their banks ...in St Vincent and cars being swept away. While no such reports are at hand so far from St Lucia, there is no doubt that there is flooding on the island with 112 mm of rain ( 4 1/2 inches) falling at Hewannora Airport in just 6 hrs to 2am Tuesday. In Barbados, Rockley, Christchurch in Southern Barbados has seen in excess of 31 mm of rain ( 1 1/4 inches) of rain since midnight.

-justin-

[abajan]

...In Barbados, Rockley, Christchurch in Southern Barbados has seen in excess of 31 mm of rain ( 1 1/4 inches) of rain since midnight.

According to news reports this morning, the northern parishes experienced significantly more rainfall, resulting in severe flooding. I believe it was also stated that some cars were washed away. Quite unusual weather for this time of year.

[msbee]

we need rain here too.
It's been very dry.

Welcome back to the thread Barbara. Hopefully,the rain falls over there too.

Hi Luis
I've been here all the time
just lurking and reading your daily reports.
I have been off island a lot so I check regularly to see what kind of weather might be moving through our area.
Thanks as always for the regular updates.
This morning is cloudy here but no sign of rain yet.
Barbara

[vbhoutex]

Tue Apr 12 2011..7am ET

A trough of Low Pressure has disrupted the normal fair weather pattern usually associated with mid-April in the Eastern Caribbean. Torrential rainfall has been reported throughout the night in St Lucia, St Vincent and in Barbados.

There are confirmed reports of rivers overflowing their banks ...in St Vincent and cars being swept away. While no such reports are at hand so far from St Lucia, there is no doubt that there is flooding on the island with 112 mm of rain ( 4 1/2 inches) falling at Hewannora Airport in just 6 hrs to 2am Tuesday. In Barbados, Rockley, Christchurch in Southern Barbados has seen in excess of 31 mm of rain ( 1 1/4 inches) of rain since midnight.

-justin-

Yikes, Now I know where all the rain is. I hope the damage isn't too severe. We're on the other end of that spectrum with only .09" of rain so far this month. Stay safe!!

[cycloneye]

This was this early morning discussion of the Caribbean by HPC.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
659 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. MID/UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO FLATTEN
AS POLAR TROUGH PUSHES TO THE EAST. RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA/GULF... HOWEVER...REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AS IT RETROGRESSES
TOWARDS MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AXIS...A TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE TURKS/ HISPANIOLA TO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA/NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...WITH CLOSED LOW ALONG SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.
SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS/ SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN...PEAKING AROUND 60-70MM.
UNDER INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH MOISTURE IS SURGING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...SLOWLY ENVELOPING THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. JET ANALYSIS SHOWS A SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO
THE ATLANTIC ALONG 24N 60W. THIS JET FAVORS A DIVERGENT PATTERN
ALOFT THAT IS VENTING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ISLES-NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. AT LOW LEVELS A POLAR
FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN USA-NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH AXIS PRESSING AGAINST A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SOUTHEAST OF THIS AXIS...AN INDUCED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH
FROM ISLA DE MARGARITA TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES.

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER MEXICO
EARLY IN THE CYCLE...TO CENTER ON A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 18N 100W.
THIS IS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
AS THE RIDGE PERSISTS...IT WILL HELP SUSTAIN A TROUGH ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. SYSTEM IS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
LATER IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER JET
DYNAMICS...A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT IS TO ESTABLISH/PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES.

AT MID LEVELS...CLOSED LOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA
WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH LATER TODAY...WITH TROUGH AXIS TO
MEANDER INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE A FRESH INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN
THIS TROUGH FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AT LOW LEVELS...INDUCED
TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL MOVE INTO THE ABC ISLES-PUERTO
RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY SHEAR TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY ANOTHER PERTURBATION DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH DURING
THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FURTHERMORE...MJO CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE...WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS/GFS SHOWING THIS TO PERSIST
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR LARGE SCALE/WELL
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

IN THIS PATTERN...THERE IS A RISK OF AN MCS/MCC FORMING ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY TOMORROW. THE NAM AND
ECMWF ARE RAPIDLY WARMING TO THIS POSSIBILITY...SHOWING CONVECTION
BUILDING JUST SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT AND ALSO THE ONE WITH ACTIVITY BUILDING FARTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA. THE NCEP
ENSEMBLES CLUSTER QUITE WELL IN SUPPORT OF THE GFS SCENARIO.
BUT...WHILE GFS SHOWS A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON DAY 02...THE NCEP
ENSEMBLES SHOW HIGH RISK OF ACTIVITY PROLONGING THROUGH DAY 02. ON
DAY 03 THE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE MEMBERS IS TOO HIGH TO BE ABLE TO
REACH A CONSENSUS ON HOW ACTIVE THE WEATHER IS GOING TO REMAIN AND
WHAT AREAS WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THIS PATTERN.

DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL MAXIMA OF TWO-TO-FOUR INCHES...WITH MOST
INTENSE OVER SAINT CROIX-VIEQUES/SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO. SECONDARY
CONVECTION WILL BUILD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO...WITH MAXIMA TO RANGE BETWEEN ONE-TO-THREE INCHES.

ALEXANDER...NWS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
LORENZO...ONAMET (DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...NCEP (USA)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1107 AM AST TUE APR 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. 12Z SJU SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING AS
NAM/GFS MODELS EXPECTED. DEEP BUT WEAK TROUGH AROUND THE VI
DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER IS JUST
WEST OF ST. CROIX AND EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD BUT SHOWERS ARE
PROBABLY MORE NUMEROUS IN DEEPER MOISTURE OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN
15N TO 16.5N WHERE COLDER TOPS ARE EVIDENT ON IR SATELLITE.
SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OF FAR EASTERN PR DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE A PRODUCT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT NEW CELLS NORTH OF
CAGUAS PROBABLY ARE WHILE SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND WILL SPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR ALL TAF SITES BUT UPDATED TIST/TKPK/TNCM FOR MORE
FREQUENT SHRA AND OCNL MVFR CONDS TODAY...WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TONIGHT/WED. WINDS ALOFT BELOW 20K FT TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KT
THROUGH WED.

[tropicana]

News out of Grenada this morning:

Tue Apr 12 2011

St Georges, Grenada:-

Grenada has expericed severe flooding this morning.
We have received numerous reports of flooded houses, landslides, road blockages, sunken boats and destroyed houses.

In Gouyave, one house was destroyed by the violent river, which overflowed its bank.
Road access from Waltham St. Mark to Victoria has been blocked. Also, the Balthazar bridge has been flooded as well. In Clozier, St. John, access to Gouyave has been cut off due to a land slide.

We have also received reports of destroyed houses, washed away cars and flooded houses from neighbouring St. Vincent.


Some rainfall updates:-

Point Salines, S. Grenada 8am-2pm 11mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 8pmMon- 2pm Tues 133mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 8pm Mon-2pm Tues 34 mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 8am-2pm 14 mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 8am to 2pm 24 mm
VC Bird, Antigua 2am to 2pm 17.1mm


-justin-

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest update of how the lakes are.Carraizo dam is the one of most concern because is the one that provide the water to San Juan,and is the dam that is reaching the alert level of rationing water.

http://www.acueductospr.com/niveles/

[cycloneye]

From this afternoon's HPC discussion:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
207 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

AT MID LEVELS...THE CLOSED LOW ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA
WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH LATER TODAY...WITH REMAINING TROUGH
AXIS TO MEANDER INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
WILL PROVIDE A FRESH INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT WILL HELP
SUSTAIN THIS TROUGH FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. POLAR TROUGH OVER THE
USA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH 36
HRS. BY 42-48 HRS IT WILL LINK WITH THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH...WITH
LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG 73W/74W TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. BY 72-84
HRS IT IS TO ALSO START PULLING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE INDUCED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL
MOVE INTO THE ABC ISLES-PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
THEN SLOWLY SHEAR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
ANOTHER PERTURBATION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UNDER
FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
FURTHERMORE...MJO CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS/GFS SHOWING THIS TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS. THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR LARGE SCALE/WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

IN THIS PATTERN...THERE IS A RISK OF AN MCS/MCC FORMING ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY TOMORROW. THE NAM AND
ECMWF ARE RAPIDLY WARMING TO THIS POSSIBILITY...SHOWING CONVECTION
BUILDING JUST SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT AND ALSO THE ONE WITH ACTIVITY BUILDING FARTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA. THE NCEP
ENSEMBLES CLUSTER QUITE WELL IN SUPPORT OF THE GFS SCENARIO.
BUT...WHILE GFS SHOWS A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON DAY 02...THE NCEP
ENSEMBLES SHOW HIGH RISK OF ACTIVITY PROLONGING THROUGH DAY 02. ON
DAY 03 THE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE MEMBERS IS TOO HIGH TO BE ABLE TO
REACH A CONSENSUS ON HOW ACTIVE THE WEATHER IS GOING TO REMAIN AND
WHAT AREAS WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THIS PATTERN.

DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 50-100MM...WITH MOST INTENSE OVER
SAINT CROIX-VIEQUES/SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO. SECONDARY CONVECTION
WILL BUILD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO...WITH MAXIMA TO RANGE BETWEEN 25-75MM. THIS IS TO REPEAT ON
DAY 02...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE ON DAY 03 WHEN WE EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-35MM/DAY. ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY THROUGH 24 HRS...AND 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM AT 24-72 HRS. OVER HISPANIOLA...MOST ACTIVE IS TO
CONVERGE ON THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 48-72 HRS...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. IT WILL THEN INCREASE TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY BY 48-72 HRS.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
217 PM AST TUE APR 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...CUTOFF LOW OVR THE DOMININCAN REPUBLIC WILL WEAKEN
INTO AN OPEN TROF OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS. TROF WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI AND INTO THE ATLC OVR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INVERTED TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM WSW OF ST. CROIX
SWD TO THE ABC ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WWD INTO THE
MONA CHANNEL OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVR THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE REAL
DEEP MOISTURE (PW VALUES GREATER THAN 2.0 INCHES) WILL REMAIN OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WED-FRI THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS IS
LOW DUE TO PW LESS THAN 2.0 INCHES AND K INDICES BELOW 35. MODELS
ALSO INDICATE BEST 250 MB DIVERGENCE AND RISK OF MCS REMAINING
OVER WATER. IN SUMMARY...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THRU FRI DUE
TO TROFFINESS TO THE WEST BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED EXCEPT MAYBE
ST. CROIX BUT EVEN THERE LOOKS IFFY. THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN FOR SAT
AND SUN AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA


&&

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TISX/TIST/TJSJ OVR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS WITH SHRA/TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...THUNDERSTORMS OVR THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE SHOWN STRONG
MID LEVEL ROTATION. POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS...CG LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 83 / 60 50 60 60
STT 74 85 74 85 / 70 60 60 60

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 PM AST TUE APR 12 2011

PRC001-073-141-122300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0024.110412T2005Z-110412T2300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JAYUYA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-UTUADO PR-
405 PM AST TUE APR 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
JAYUYA...ADJUNTAS AND UTUADO

* UNTIL 700 PM AST

* AT 402 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS THROUGH SUNSET.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1820 6669 1821 6663 1815 6662 1814 6670

$$

ET
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Below is why Puerto Rico believe it or not needs a fairly big rain event, as this year has been on deficit of precipitation.Last year was bigtime on the contrary as it was a record breaking year of surplus of rainfall. This data is for San Juan only,but I can tell you that there are bigger deficits of rainfall in other parts of the island that are causing many forest fires.

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  TODAY            T             3.88 1987   0.11  -0.11      T
  MONTH TO DATE    0.32                      1.21  -0.89     0.69
  SINCE MAR 1      1.59                      3.35  -1.76     3.77
  SINCE JAN 1      6.49                      8.67  -2.18    15.92



[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 8pmET Mon-8pmET Tues) for
Tue Apr 12 2011

TROUGH BRINGS FLOODING RAINS TO ST VINCENT, ST LUCIA, BARBADOS AND GRENADA
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERS VAST AREA ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN


Piarco Airport, Trinidad 30.8C 87F 3.0mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.8C 86F 5.8mm
Crown Point, Tobago 29.2C 85F 4.0mm

Point Salines, Grenada 28.4C 83F 11.3mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.0C 88F 36.5mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.2C 85F 16.6mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 29.9C 86F 30.7mm
Retreat, St Lucy, C. Barbados XX 172.0mm
Hewannora AIrport, St Lucia 26.5C 80F 134.3mm
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 27.9C 82F 28.4mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 26.5C 80F 1.9mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 26.8C 80F 1.9mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 27.8C 82F 8.0mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 25.0C 77F 17.0mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 27.1C 81F 31.2mm (thunderstorms)
VC Bird, Antigua 26.3C 79F 17.1mm
St Croix, VI 28.3C 83F 4.6mm
Juliana Arpt, St Maarten VI 27.9C 82F 7.4mm
St Thomas, VI 28.3C 83F 2.8mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 29.4C 85F 0.3mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.8C 86F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.1C 88F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.7C 87F
Havana, Cuba 32.0C 90F
Key West, FL 27.8C 82F
Marathon, FL 31.1C 88F
Miami, FL 32.2C 90F
Nassau, Bahamas 29.8C 86F
Hamilton, Bermuda 20.6C 69F

Hato Airport, Curacao 28.4C 83F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 28.5C 84F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 31.6C 89F

Cayenne, French Guyana 30.0C 86F
Timehri, Guyana 32.1C 90F
Cumana, Venezuela 31.2C 88F 12.0mm

-justin-

[abajan]

Latest reports are that parts of the north of the island saw more than 8 inches of rain last night.

[Macrocane]

Stay safe and as dry as you can guys! Here in Central America the countries experienced warm and near normal temps today, only El Salvador and Nicaragua had cooler than normal highs and Costa Rica cooler than normal lows.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.6°C (67.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.2°C (43.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.5°C (50.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 25.2°C (77.4°F) Warmest for 2011.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 17.0°C (62.6°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.4°C (61.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.0°C (39.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.1°C (59.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 29°C (84°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.5°C (86.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.3°C (72.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.8°C (94.6°F) Coolest since March 26.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 27.9°C (82.2°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.1°C (68.2°F)

[Macrocane]

A shallow earthquake (depth of 8 km) with a moderate magnitude (4.2) and an intensity of V near the epicenter (in the Mercalli scale) was felt tonight in the west and central parts of El Salvador, no damages have been reported but the shake was pretty storng in the areas near the epicenter.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Another day of plenty of rainfall is expected.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST WED APR 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL
FOCUS THE ENTRANCE OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL FRIDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
ON FRIDAY THE JET WILL REFORM TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE BY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
PASS THROUGH AND EXIT THE AREA ON SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
THEN CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER AIR.
THE TROUGH WILL REFORM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH IS JUST WEST OF THE AREA...WHICH
COMBINED WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF A 1034 MB HIGH IN THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL GENERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT.
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE USHERED OUT WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ON
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER HIGH MOVES OUT OF NEW FOUNDLAND. DRIER AIR
WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A FEW BANDS OF MOISTURE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FRINGE OF A MOIST AIR MASS WAS FELT ON TUESDAY AS
THIS SURGE THAT GREW OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLIER THIS WEEK
PUSHED SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST. FILAMENTS OF THIS MOISTURE ARE NOW
EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...THAT
REACHED 2 INCHES HERE TUESDAY...VALUES HIGH UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. A
PROTRUSION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND COOL TEMPERATURES OF
-10 AND -11 CELSIUS AT 500 MB WILL CONTINUE THE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT TRIGGERED HEAVY RAINS OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN...THOUGH PERHAPS TO A
LESSER DEGREE AND EXTENT...ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. ON SATURDAY DRIER AIR
AT MID LEVELS MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WILL CUT THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY CONSIDERABLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER...FORECAST TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 1.7 INCHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
PLUNGES...ACCORDING THE GFS...TO BELOW 0.9 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AND ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DROP CONSIDERABLY.
MOISTURE THEN RAMPS UP SLOWLY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS AN
EAST-WEST MID LEVEL TROUGH HOVERS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL BRING OUR TYPICAL EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
UNTIL 13/17Z. AFT 13/17Z TEMPO MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND THE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND BELOW 15K FT ARE
FROM THE ESE AT 5-15 KTS...BCMG SW AND INCRG WITH HEIGHT TO A MAX
WIND NEAR 80 KTS BTWN 30-35K FT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE LIGHTNING FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 74 / 40 30 40 40
STT 83 73 85 75 / 50 50 60 60

[cycloneye]

There was a 5.1 quake just NE of the Virgin Islands overnight. More information about it can be found at the Eastern Caribbean Seismic Activity thread at Geology forum.I didn't felt it.

viewtopic.php?f=67&p=2123153#p2123153

[cycloneye]

This morning's discussion of the Caribbean by HPC:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
645 AM EDT WED APR 13 2011

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. AT MID/UPPER
LEVELS A POLAR TROUGH IS SLOWLY CLEARING THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF
THE USA...WITH AXIS TRAILING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO WESTERN CUBA. AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
TROUGH IS PHASING WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH...AS THE
LATTER EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS TO THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS FAVORS A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN TO THE EAST OF 68W/70W. A RIDGE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NOW FAVORS A LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO/THE YUCATAN TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN-CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT LOW LEVELS A POLAR FRONT IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
WHILE TRAILING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
BROAD RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES. AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH EXTENDS FROM LAKE
MARACAIBO/LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA TO THE MONA PASSAGE. SECONDARY
PERTURBATIONS FOLLOW...STREAMING ACROSS THE FRENCH ISLES TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. OVERNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH INDUCED A
SURGE OF DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLES. BUT THIS IS QUICKLY FADING...WITH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA/ABC ISLES TO THE WINDWARDS.

ALOFT...RIDGE OVER MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA IS TO WEAKEN/COLLAPSE
THROUGH 48-54 HRS AS A STRONG TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT/PULL...WITH UPPER PERTURBATION TO EJECT ACROSS
PUERTO RICO/USVI EARLY ON FRIDAY. BEST INFLOW OF CYCLONIC
VORTICITY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH STRONG REFLECTION AT MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
IS TO THEN ESTABLISH ACROSS THE BASIN. A SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA IS
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING-FRIDAY MORNING. THEN PULL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

AT LOW LEVELS EXPECTING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TO SHEAR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH
SECONDARY VORTICES STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THEY WILL
LACK THE AMPLITUDE/PUNCH OF THE LATTER. AS A RESULT...RISK OF MCS
FORMATION IS QUICKLY EBBING. DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER...IS TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO CONTINUE
FAVORING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES.
MOST INTENSE IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE MORNING-AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON DAILY MAXIMA JUST SHY OF AN INCH THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
EVENING-FRIDAY MORNING AS UPPER PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.


ALEXANDER...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
LORENZO...ONAMET (DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...NCEP (USA)