Texas Fall-2014

[Ralph's Weather]

I am concerned that with the lack of established snow coverage the surge of Arctic air will lose its punch. What cold does get here looks to stay around for a while though.

[wxman57]

Did anyone happen to snag the altered excel sheets I created and shared on the Meteogram Thread? My hard drive crapped out on me a couple of weeks ago, and I apparently forgot to keep backups on my flash drive. As we get back near winter months, where meteograms are often posted, I was wondering if anyone happened to snag them? The links on the site I uploaded the sheets to no longer are valid, and I'd rather not go through the trouble of making the alterations to 57's original sheets again to add 850mb temps to the long range GFS or making recreating the NAM's sheet.

I checked and all I had saved was the spreadsheet as of 2/11/14 (below). I don't think it does 850mb temps. One thing to note is that in 5 weeks the new GFS will have 3-hr increments out to 240 hrs (vs. 192 currently). I'll have to edit my spreadsheets, too, when the change takes place.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/GFS-Auto.xlsm

I might possibly have your other spreadsheets on my home PC. I'll check... Nope. Not there.

[weatherdude1108]

This sums up the hydrological effect of this last rain event on the Colorado River Basin.

Steady rainfall over the past 48 hours has resulted in totals of 1 to 3 inches over the entire Lower Colorado River Basin. This light, steady rainfall has caused a slight rise on some creeks and tributaries in the lower Colorado River basin. However, the runoff is expected to have a minimal effect on the levels of the Highland Lakes.

http://hydromet.lcra.org/riverreport/report.aspx

[hriverajr]

Did anyone see Ryan Maues tweet? heheh

[Portastorm]

Did anyone see Ryan Maues tweet? heheh

I was just about to post on that! Yes, Ryan is providing a series of interesting tweets this morning as he examines the "new and improved" GFS. He's been analyzing the 6z op run and it has two things of note for us (Texans):

1) Accumulating snowfall in portions of far west Texas and the Panhandle

2) Next week's Arctic blast will feature of 1052mb high coming down into Montana on the east side of the Rockies ... that is usually THE trajectory for Arctic outbreaks which dive deep into Texas

[hriverajr]

Well if it continues run to run, we have something to talk about. BTW almost 4 inches of rain here at Del Rio

[Portastorm]

Happy for Del Rio! Y'all REALLY need it.

Meanwhile, if any of you are wondering "Hey Port, you and the others have been talking about this typhoon in the Pacific and how it might change our weather. How does that happen?" Well, I'm glad you asked that question! Here's a good read which answers it:

http://mashable.com/2014/11/04/how-super-typhoon-nuri-increases-the-risk-of-extreme-weather-in-north-america/

[TeamPlayersBlue]

1052 MB. Saw that tweet this am of it way up in the arctic. This is incredible. Wonder how shallow it will be etc? Epic event.

[gboudx]

Does it look like rain with next weeks front? This weeks rain saturated the ground, now we need some good rain to provide runoff.

[Rgv20]

Light Rain with a temperature of 60, wish I was home instead of stuck in the office! Looks like next week is starting to look interesting for Texas! Hopefully I get to check in on here more often as we head until the heart of the Winter, I have been swamp with this last couple of months.

[Ralph's Weather]

Next week will break the dam on the Arctic cold though it may not be record breaking on its own. Blocking looks to hold whatever comes down in place for the real weather makers in a few weeks as alluded to by Bizzles on the Winter Weather forum http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=116941.

[srainhoutx]

Does it look like rain with next weeks front? This weeks rain saturated the ground, now we need some good rain to provide runoff.

Two things regarding Texas weather next week will be what happens after the Arctic front arrives. A noisy sub tropical jet associated with 96E in the Eastern Pacific and where that mid/upper level moisture sets up over Texas. Another feature to watch is the potential for a Coastal Low developing near the Lower Texas Coast next Thursday into Friday providing an over running issue. The various computer models suggest Clipper systems or embedded shortwave energy aloft will drop S from Canada bringing snow into the Plains as well as re enforcing shots of colder air. The pattern looks very interesting in the mid November timeframe and may well offer a lot of forecasting challenges. It is too soon to know with any certainty exactly what the sensible weather will be beyond the 3 to 5 day period. That said it does raise an eyebrow and may provide for a lot of interesting discussions as events get closer.

[dhweather]

Did anyone happen to snag the altered excel sheets I created and shared on the Meteogram Thread? My hard drive crapped out on me a couple of weeks ago, and I apparently forgot to keep backups on my flash drive. As we get back near winter months, where meteograms are often posted, I was wondering if anyone happened to snag them? The links on the site I uploaded the sheets to no longer are valid, and I'd rather not go through the trouble of making the alterations to 57's original sheets again to add 850mb temps to the long range GFS or making recreating the NAM's sheet.

I checked and all I had saved was the spreadsheet as of 2/11/14 (below). I don't think it does 850mb temps. One thing to note is that in 5 weeks the new GFS will have 3-hr increments out to 240 hrs (vs. 192 currently). I'll have to edit my spreadsheets, too, when the change takes place.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/GFS-Auto.xlsm

I might possibly have your other spreadsheets on my home PC. I'll check... Nope. Not there.

I've apparently been under a rock too long. What changes are being made to the GFS model ? Are they moving to the new hardware bought with appropriations made to buy a new supercomputer after Sandy ?

[wxman57]

I've apparently been under a rock too long. What changes are being made to the GFS model ? Are they moving to the new hardware bought with appropriations made to buy a new supercomputer after Sandy ?

See here:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/impl.php

[dhweather]

I've apparently been under a rock too long. What changes are being made to the GFS model ? Are they moving to the new hardware bought with appropriations made to buy a new supercomputer after Sandy ?

See here:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/impl.php

Thanks!

This looks interesting for Q1FY16 - Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Ice

[South Texas Storms]

Here are the final rainfall totals across the area. Much of the region got over 2 inches of rain, while some parts of San Antonio received over 6 inches of rain in the past 48 hours! What a great rain event! I'm very thankful for all of the rain we have received!

[Ntxw]

Get your firewood ready per the latest euro

[texas1836]

Get your firewood ready per the latest euro

Please Ntxw, elaborate. Will it be colder? Much colder air behind the first shot of cold air?

[Portastorm]

Get your firewood ready per the latest euro

I just saw that and was going to post. The Euro op runs keep looking colder and colder and colder for next week! Wow.

[gboudx]

Got 1/3 chord ready to burn. Bring it!

This may be a good weekend to harvest any sensitive veggie or herb plants. If it gets cold enough, they won't survive even being covered.