Texas Spring 2018

[Haris]

Now this is a nice trend! GEFS keep trending wetter

EDIT' : 18z gfs back to reality too

[bubba hotep]

Precipitation placement will continue to jump around on the individual runs. The trends at H5 are more important to watch on the individual runs at this point.

[lukem]

That’s a pretty impressive storm headed south across the Red River. Was there rain in the forecast for North Texas tonight?

[JDawg512]

Picked up .59" in W Austin today! The rain lover is happy! Nearing .8" for the month. Still have a long ways to go

Have I gained a new deciple? Rain lovers unite!

Got half an inch here. Was a great afternoon. Perfect for doing yard work...

[Yukon Cornelius]

That’s a pretty impressive storm headed south across the Red River. Was there rain in the forecast for North Texas tonight?

10-20%

[1900hurricane]

Wednesday is probably my first serious chase day of the year.

[Haris]

0z gfs has fairly significant rains for central texas !

[Brent]

Euro extremely wet... has the same bullseye DFW and NE but has another bullseye around Austin

Though most of the rain is still a week out(next Friday into Saturday), GFS is faster

[Haris]

GFS and GEFS camp has 1-3" ! Euro and EPS MEAN are 2-5" ! I think confidence is really growing in a signficant rain event for the state of TX!

[bubba hotep]

FWD is pretty spot on with this, chances of storms but details need to be worked out later on.

[bubba hotep]

Pretty good agreement b/w the EPS and GEFS for rainfall over the next week. The EPS is very similar to what the GEFS is showing below.

[weatherdude1108]

There does seem to be some consistency in the placement of QPF on the 6Z GFS and GEFS.

6Z GFS


6Z GEFS

[Cpv17]

That looks really good for those folks in Central TX and the Hill Country! Very happy to see that. Hope like heck that verifies. Looks like my part of the state (SE) will have to wait till later next week for any significant rains. It’s possible the front could stall over SE TX late next week into next weekend and really give our area a good soaking, but that’s way too far out yet to say with any confidence. Looks like much better chances of rain for areas to my north and west as of right now.

[Ntxw]

As I mentioned in some posts above, regardless of what the day to day shifts of models is with qpf or placement the broader picture is still pointing toward a significant precipitation event. Each day will also present varying degrees of severe weather risks that will probably see the greatest coverage to date. As for rainfall the greatest percentage risk when you accommodate all the guidance is likely from a corridor in the northeast quarter to half of the state in tandem with the CPC risks. I-35/I-30 corridor looks to be in a good spot for rain.



It may expand or shift accordingly depending on ejection of the shortwave troughs. The Oklahoma tornado-less drought/latest record to see first one will likely come to an end next week.

[Haris]

I have a feeling the CPC should extend their heavy rain oulook more S and W and they probably will in the coming days. Should also expect slight risk , maybe enhanced for North and Central TX if forecast remain same late week...

What I HATE? ITS 7 DAYS out . I cant wait

[bubba hotep]

DFW could see multiple days with svr wx threats:

[Haris]

DFW could see multiple days with svr wx threats:

https://image.ibb.co/b8dDOc/D6.png

https://image.ibb.co/nyLtOc/D7.png

Oh wow!!!

[bubba hotep]

Lock it up!

[Brent]

the GFS stays unsettled the entire run

[wxman57]

I just noticed that the last 90+ degree day in Houston was October 15th. That's over 6 months ago! I'll have to do something about that real soon. Looking forward to some 90s next Nov/Dec (possibly Jan/Feb).

Looks like great weather for the MS 150 bike ride from Houston to Austin this weekend. My wife is riding again. I'll head out on my own and do some exploring on the local bike trails.