Texas Spring 2022

[Iceresistance]

Powerflashes in OKC north of I-40 & I-44, saw it on a ODOT Camera

[ElectricStorm]

Amazing lightning show here tonight in Norman, one of the better ones I've seen recently. Getting a good amount of much needed rain. Hopefully you all cash in tomorrow night with minimal damage. That MCS is probably gonna be pretty gnarly.

[Brent]

Pouring rain here good start to the event

[Iceresistance]

The rainfall was a LOT heavier than the models (And I) expected, I picked up 1.8 inches from the rain gauge.

[Iceresistance]

News 9 has storms next week that could be theoretically severe since it's highs in the 70s & 80s with a strong south wind, it's over a week out though.

[rwfromkansas]

Latest SPC outlook has expanded tornado probabilities over DFW again. I was surprised they lowered them earlier. It should mainly be wind, but it was weird they put the higher tornado probabilities later in the night in the previous update.

[ElectricStorm]

Hatched area added to the 30% wind area.

Looks like a small storm is coming my way. Already hearing some thunder now.

[Edwards Limestone]

Looks like another north TX/NE TX/OK event. Little to no relief for those of us in south central TX (maybe 0.1-0.25")

Fire conditions this week are going to be no bueno down here. Supposed to be 95 here tomorrow.

[Iceresistance]

Hatched area added to the 30% wind area.

Looks like a small storm is coming my way. Already hearing some thunder now.

That storm packs quite a punch! The Thunder from the storm is REALLY LOUD! It's been several years since I've had a storm this loud

[Ntxw]

Pivoting a little bit to the medium and longer term. At the current time SOI is largely positive so there isn't a signal for imminent deluge in the southwest or south-central US in the near future (excessive drought busting rainfall) using this metric since it does provide a 1-2 week lag into the future insight.



Medium range big trough in the middle and eastern US will put a Spring chill into the pattern later this week which will likely limit large scale outbreaks.

Beyond this the troughing does increase into the west a more favorable signal for some rainfall and possibly a more notable typical bout of severe weather near mid April. I would think at least one large scale tornado outbreak is possible. After that EPS and GEFS moves the trough back to the middle and east of the country but that's very long term.

[WacoWx]

Not sure if will add to any de-stabilization, but the sun is out here in Dallas. Started poking out about an hour ago.

[Iceresistance]

Pivoting a little bit to the medium and longer term. At the current time SOI is largely positive so there isn't a signal for imminent deluge in the southwest or south-central US in the near future (excessive drought busting rainfall) using this metric since it does provide a 1-2 week lag into the future insight.

https://i.imgur.com/DyfqKju.png

Medium range big trough in the middle and eastern US will put a Spring chill into the pattern later this week which will likely limit large scale outbreaks.

Beyond this the troughing does increase into the west a more favorable signal for some rainfall and possibly a more notable typical bout of severe weather near mid April. I would think at least one large scale tornado outbreak is possible. After that EPS and GEFS moves the trough back to the middle and east of the country but that's very long term.

https://i.imgur.com/w4Qujh5.png

I do want to mention that there is very strong model consistency right now for severe weather in the Southern Plains next week, the Euro, Euro-ENS, GFS, & GEFS are in strong general agreement for this event that is expected 7-9 days out, which is unusual.

[cstrunk]

I'm a little concerned about some pre-MCS supercells in the Tyler-Longview area later this evening, like what the latest HRRR is showing. Those could have higher tornado potential. Regardless, the MCS should pack a pretty good punch with straight-line winds.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm a little concerned about some pre-MCS supercells in the Tyler-Longview area later this evening, like what the latest HRRR is showing. Those could have higher tornado potential. Regardless, the MCS should pack a pretty good punch with straight-line winds.

I think a few spinups on the line are possible too. SRH values aren’t bad, and any stronger storm or right mover within the line could tap into better inflow given the projected orientation of the MCS

[HockeyTx82]

I've got an outdoor cub scout event from 7-8 tonight in Justin, Tx. Looks like HRRR says not any issues until maybe after 8? Am I reading it correctly?

[ElectricStorm]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the 10% tornado area expanded west into NE TX on the new outlook here in a few minutes. If those pre-squall cells can get going like HRRR shows without getting too messy it could get pretty dangerous. Always hate to see these overnight events, hopefully everyone has a way to get warnings.

EDIT: Nope they left it the same

[bubba hotep]

18z 3k NAM is pretty impressive. I've seen some twitter weatherologist speculating that the HRRR has been underdoing CAPE (I haven't looked into it). The 18z FWD special only showed 635 MU CAPE but CRP showed 3720 MU CAPE, so there is some high octane surging north from the south.

[HockeyTx82]

18z 3k NAM is pretty impressive. I've seen some twitter weatherologist speculating that the HRRR has been underdoing CAPE (I haven't looked into it). The 18z FWD special only showed 635 MU CAPE but CRP showed 3720 MU CAPE, so there is some high octane surging north from the south.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2022040418/020/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

What is impressive? Rain totals? Severe weather?

[bubba hotep]

18z 3k NAM is pretty impressive. I've seen some twitter weatherologist speculating that the HRRR has been underdoing CAPE (I haven't looked into it). The 18z FWD special only showed 635 MU CAPE but CRP showed 3720 MU CAPE, so there is some high octane surging north from the south.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2022040418/020/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

What is impressive? Rain totals? Severe weather?

Rain totals.

[Quixotic]

I’ll take 3-4” of rain.