STORM2K

Happy hour GFS hitting the sauce a little too hard!

104F today. That is the 39th day. Tomorrow will be the 40th, milestone.

Ntxw wrote:104F today. That is the 39th day. Tomorrow will be the 40th, milestone.

60% chance of rain Friday for the Houston area. Hopefully it pans out.

Cpv17 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:104F today. That is the 39th day. Tomorrow will be the 40th, milestone.

60% chance of rain Friday for the Houston area. Hopefully it pans out.

It's going to be nice to talk about the last consecutive 100+ degree day. Fortunately, it will be here soon. Cold fronts are hopefully not too far into the future.

Cpv17 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:104F today. That is the 39th day. Tomorrow will be the 40th, milestone.

60% chance of rain Friday for the Houston area. Hopefully it pans out.

Wish you guys luck! At least somewhere there's a chance.

That almanac normal precip is hilarious.

Today should be the last 100F for at least a little while in Longview, with mid-90's in the forecast every day after. And very slight chances for rain. My lawn is crunchy brown.

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Upper level ridge of high pressure over the SW US will begin to shift northward allowing a mid level trough over coastal Louisiana to move westward.

Upcoming upper air pattern will usher in some of the best rain chances the area has seen in a long while. As the near semi-permanent upper ridge over the SW US moves to our north over the next few days, a mid level low/trough over coastal LA will move westward and into the upper TX coast Friday/Saturday. This feature has produced numerous slow moving showers and thunderstorms over southern LA the last few days with copious rainfall amounts. Moisture begins to increase from the east this afternoon and when combined with heating, showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the sea/bay breeze boundaries especially in Chambers, Galveston, SE Harris, and Liberty Counties. Subsidence aloft still is in place to the north and west so these storms likely wont survive into the far inland areas.

Mid level trough/low moves toward the Sabine River area on Friday and moisture will greatly increase over SE TX. PWS increase into the 2.0-2.3 range and the forecast soundings show an increasingly saturated profile. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop near the coast and offshore before/near daybreak and then begin to move inland with heating. Given the tropical air mass flowing into the region it will not take much heating (upper 80’s/low 90’s) to get storms going. Additionally, with the moisture profile in place on Friday, rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per an hour will be possible. Area remains in a favorable tropical air mass and eastern flank of mid level trough/low as it moves westward on Saturday and expect another active day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms near the coast in the morning and spreading inland through the day.

There is a decent chance that most areas will see some rainfall over the next 48 hours and this will greatly help mitigate the ongoing fire weather issues across the region.

Rain chances will continue into next week with lingering favorable moisture levels and the ridge having backed away from the area, so expect a decently active seabreeze each afternoon. Several global models show a strong shortwave moving through the upper Midwest early to mid next week and a frontal boundary dropping south into SE TX and even the northern Gulf by the middle of next week. It would be rare for a front to make it this far south this time of year, but even if it can get close this would help keep rain chances going well into the middle of next week. I have my doubts this front makes it as far south as the models indicate.

Fire Weather:
The last few days have featured numerous fire starts and rapid spread across the state with gusty winds and low humidity and background state critically dry vegetation. 315 acre grass fire yesterday afternoon near Damon (Brazoria County) continues to indicate the critical fuel load situation across the region. We desperately need widespread wetting rainfall to help mitigate the ongoing fire weather conditions. Luckily, with increasing moisture today, humidity values likely will not mix out as much this afternoon (closer to 40-50%) instead of the 25-35% the last few days. Additionally, winds will not be as gusty as previous days, but still in the 10-15mph range by mid to late afternoon.

The following below is some of the average KBD Values for counties in SE TX:

Values of 550 tend to indicate critical fire conditions and values over 700 severe. This index can also be used as a soil moisture determination with values of 100=1 inch below the soil surface is completely void of moisture. A value of 700 would indicate there is no moisture in the soil in the top 7 inches below the surface. Medium and large fuels (brush and trees) begin to exhibit stress when values exceed 600 for an extended period of time.

Brazos: 775
Washington: 759
Walker: 757
San Jacinto: 748
Montgomery: 733
Colorado: 718
Wharton: 712
Fort Bend: 680
Galveston: 675
Harris: 682
Liberty: 693
Matagorda: 703

KBDI


Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist

DFW busted low of the 104F forecast but still manage to hit 100F. FWD indicating that 100s might be a bit harder to come by next week, so that is the first sign of some hope. Climo will start working in our favor by mid-month, however, we still need something to shake up this pattern. As far as pattern change, starting to see some chatter out there that the tropical watchers are getting nervous that the current pattern will continue to hold on (which would continue to be unfavorable for the tropics).

Cloud cover made the difference today. Generally do agree the worst of the heat is probably behind us now. But still stagnant pattern overall. The drought situation continues to get worst and not better, however.

Been in Hawaii for a week. Seen rain forests and deserts, and temps at 83 degrees, and as low as 45 degrees on way up to Mauna Kea. We couldn't go ro 14,000 feet because they said there were snow flurries at the top, in August, on a tropical island!lol. Worried about ice on roads. It rained on us the way up for a long time, on the dry side of the island. So cool and pretty here! I don't want to come back. I have another week here.

Ntxw wrote:Cloud cover made the difference today. Generally do agree the worst of the heat is probably behind us now. But still stagnant pattern overall. The drought situation continues to get worst and not better, however.

https://i.imgur.com/j5MYvql.gif

I really hope so. I can’t take much more of this 107-110 every single day, day after day.

Yukon Cornelius wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Cloud cover made the difference today. Generally do agree the worst of the heat is probably behind us now. But still stagnant pattern overall. The drought situation continues to get worst and not better, however.

https://i.imgur.com/j5MYvql.gif

I really hope so. I can’t take much more of this 107-110 every single day, day after day.

It's really getting rough now. I discovered 2 trees today (about 5-7 years old) dying from the severe drought. There's a decent chance of storms tomorrow for my area, but I haven't had much rain at all this year. Normal rainfall for me should be around 40 inches right now, but it's less than 20. I am going to be so thankful when our ponds are full again. They are currently down about 3 feet and rapidly dropping.

No clouds today for NTX, low to mid 100s shouldn't be too difficult.

A few days ago, today's high in Longview was supposed to be 91F. Then it was raised to 94F. Then 97F is still the forecasted high for today. It's already 98F as of 1 pm and we may challenge 100F, although cumulous clouds are building in pretty quickly. Hopefully I can score some rain this afternoon/evening.

Lots of rain across SE Texas today but I can’t get a drop of rain to save my life (or our forests)! Another bust for me!

jasons2k wrote:Lots of rain across SE Texas today but I can’t get a drop of rain to save my life (or our forests)! Another bust for me!

If the Euro is right, you might get more rain than you want later this month. It shows a cutoff low forming over the South moving west towards Texas slowly. Last run showed it too, but this run is a lot closer to us.

jasons2k wrote:Lots of rain across SE Texas today but I can’t get a drop of rain to save my life (or our forests)! Another bust for me!

Got nothing today as well.

Very long range ensembles show ridges in the Pac NW and Northeast of the continent. We need it, please! Even if it doesn't pan out, at least it is something vs the same ole stuff showing.

Ntxw wrote:Very long range ensembles show ridges in the Pac NW and Northeast of the continent. We need it, please! Even if it doesn't pan out, at least it is something vs the same ole stuff showing.

CPC 3-4 week outlook looks interesting.