Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Today was in general a cooler day than yesterday in Central America:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.6°C (51.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.1°C (55.6°F).
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.4°C (43.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.3°C (59.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 25.2°C (77.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.6°C (83.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.7°C (72.9°F).
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.1°C (97.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.5°C (83.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.More afternoon showers are expected today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 AM AST SUN MAY 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST OF THE FA...WILL CONTINUE TO FILL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. BROAD TROF WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED
OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT LOW
LEVEL WINDS...DIURNAL HEATING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN FACT...PWAT VALUES WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ORDER OF 1.50 OR MORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...SOUTH OF CUBA. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA...INDUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE
GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR OR ACROSS PUERTO RICO.
IF THIS VERIFY...A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL ENCOMPASS THE FA
THROUGH THE END THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE ORDER OF
2.4 INCHES OR MORE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS REMAINING MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER MOST OF THE TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...AFT 28/16Z...SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR...LEADING TO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS PR...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING TJMZ...TJPS...AND
TJSJ...CAUSING TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR
TJBQ...TIST...TISX...TKPK...AND TNCM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 77 / 40 10 20 10
STT 87 78 87 78 / 10 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST SUN MAY 29 2011

PRC003-005-071-099-131-292215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0172.110529T1918Z-110529T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-
318 PM AST SUN MAY 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...AGUADILLA AND AGUADA

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 317 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1846 6718 1842 6702 1832 6701 1832 6707
1833 6719

$$

EM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN MAY 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD ENLOGATED TROF OVR THE SW ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE
GMEX BY MID WEEK WHILE SUB EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS WWD INTO THE WEST
CNTRL CARIBBEAN BY WEEKS END. BROAD SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO MEANDER
ACROSS THE WCNTRL CARIBBEAN OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REGION WILL REMAIN IN A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW THRU MID
WEEK WHILE DENSE/THICK MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
ON UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THIS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING SOMEWHAT
AND DELAY/LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO LAST WEEK BUT STILL XPC SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY CONCENTRATING NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL.

MOISTURE SURGES LATER IN THE WEEK AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES
NEAR JAMAICA. IT LOOKS LIKE A DEFINITE CLOUDY PERIOD AS MID HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND/OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LOW PRES
NEAR JAMAICA ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA ON WSW UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
HOWEVER..AM VERY SKEPTICAL ABOUT MODEL`S OUTPUT ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF
GENERATING SOME MUCH RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA GIVEN INCREASING H5-H25
HEIGHTS AND THAT BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FCST ACROSS THE
WRN/CNTRL CARIBBEAN. AT THIS TIME...PREFER A SOLUTION DRIER THAN THE
GFS AND CLOSER TO THE GFES WHICH PUTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN OVR
JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA SEEMS MORE REASONABLE ATTM.


&&

.AVIATION...AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-3 FT THRU MEMORIAL DAY THEN SLOWLY BUILD UP TO 5 FT
IN SMALL NORTH SWELLS AND EAST SOUTHEAST GENERATED WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 88 / 10 20 10 40
STT 78 87 78 87 / 30 30 20 20

[msbee]

[cycloneye]

Long time no see! It looks like you are enduring the contrary of what we are experiencing here. Hurricane season is around the corner.Are you preparing there?

[msbee]

hi Luis
How are you?
I've been traveling a lot and just returned from NYC. The heat and the humidity are killing me.
Yep, everyone here is well aware of hurricane season fast approaching.

Our Office of Disaster Management just issued a press release,advising people that they will be using social networking sites such as Twitter and Facebook during hurricane season in order to get information quicker to members of the community.

Barbara

[cycloneye]

hi Luis
How are you?
I've been traveling a lot and just returned from NYC. The heat and the humidity are killing me.
Yep, everyone here is well aware of hurricane season fast approaching.

Our Office of Disaster Management just issued a press release,advising people that they will be using social networking sites such as Twitter and Facebook during hurricane season in order to get information quicker to members of the community.

Barbara

I am doing fine.Barbara,a top secret between you and me lol Storm2k can also help diseminate information for the folks in the Caribbean thanks to our partnership with the Caribbean Hurricane Network (stormcarib.com)

[Macrocane]

HIGH AND DANGEROUS SURF EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA

The SNET in El Salvador has issued a high surf special report again, they are expecting waves of 2.4 m (7.9 ft) with speeds up to 60 km/h (37.5 mph). The normal waves in El Salvador are 1.2 m (3.9 ft) high and have a speed of 35 km/h (22 mph). This is what the TWD says about it:

OTHERWISE...LARGE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH SEAS OF 8 TO
12 FT ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. UNUSUALLY HIGH BREAKERS AND HEAVY SURF IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AMERICAN PACIFIC COAST.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST MON MAY 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WHILE A TROUGH OVER CUBA STRETCHES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CUTS OFF A LOW.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 30 NORTH. A LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DEEPENS AND SHIFTS NORTH IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MUCH BETTER MOISTURE MOVES NORTH OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS IN THE CARIBBEAN HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT BUT ONLY SPRINKLES HAVE DAMPENED
PUERTO RICO SO FAR...WITH NONE NOTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
CELLS WERE MOVING FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30/09Z. CONTINUED
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...THE PROMISE OF SOME SUN...AND
THE HINT OF A BOUNDARY ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MAINLAND
SUGGEST THAT INTERIOR PUERTO RICO WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH WILL BEGIN
BEFORE NOON. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE...FORECAST
BY THE GFS TO ARRIVE AFTER 31/00Z...MAY ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER.
WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE FROM THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND HENCE THE LOWER EXPECTED POPS ON MUCH OF THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE ECMWF IS WETTER THAN THE GFS THIS
WEEK...BUT BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO AND THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A WHOLE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 31/06Z AND
AGAIN AFTER 02/00Z...SUGGESTING THAT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE MUCH LATER INTO THE
EVENING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER LAND...INCLUDING THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GFS SHOWED ITS FIRST TROPICAL SYSTEM OF THE SEASON...WINDING
UP TO 990 MB NORTH OF CUBA ON 09/00Z AT 240 HOURS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR
...PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL BE UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AGAIN...BUT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
WITH NO OTHER DIRECT EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
IN THE MORNING. AFT 30/16Z...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJBQ...TJMZ...TJPS AND POSSIBLY TJSJ
IN SHRA AND TSRA. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS UP A LITTLE IN THE ATLANTIC ON THE
FIRST OF JUNE AND THE SECOND OR THIRD IN THE CARIBBEAN. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
OVER THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 78 / 20 10 30 20
STT 86 78 88 79 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
207 PM AST MON MAY 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MOIST HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AND MOST ACTIVITY WAS MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. SOME SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WERE NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER TRUJILLO ALTO AND CAROLINA...AS THE SEA BREEZE WAS
STRONG ALONG THE NORTH COAST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN THE
RULE DURING THE LAST WEEK...AND LOOKS LIKE THE NEW MONTH WILL
START WITH MORE OF THE SAME. IN FACT...IS FORECAST TO BECOME
WETTER. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAR AWAY FROM OUR REGION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP
TROPICS IS EXPECTED TO BE ADVECTED TO THE NORTH...AS THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY...AND WITH THE ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE REGION...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY THIS WHOLE WEEK IN SOME AREAS.
ALSO...RIVERS LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO ARE RUNNING HIGH...AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
MAKE RIVERS TO REACT QUICKLY...POSSIBLY NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE ONLY DAY THAT LOOKS "DRIER" IS TUESDAY...AS A SLOT OF DRY AIR
AT 700MB IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN HIGH AT LOW LEVEL...WHICH
WILL DEFINITELY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 30/22Z OVER TJMZ AND
TJBQ. VCTS OVER TJSJ THROUGH AT LEAST 22/20Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10KTS..EXCEPT NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS WHERE COULD BE GUSTY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 78 87 / 40 40 20 30
STT 78 88 79 87 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The month of May will end on a rainy note.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST TUE MAY 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THEN SHIFTS BACK TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEXT
WEEK. A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS IS PRESENT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AT MID LEVELS...ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE IS GENERALLY PRESENT IN THE
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN
DURING THE PERIOD. MID LEVELS ARE GENERALLY MOIST.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUED ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTED TOWARD THE EAST IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE CARIBBEAN AROUND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS ALSO COVERED MUCH OF THE MONA PASSAGE
EAST AND WEST OF MONA ISLAND. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP
TO THE MIMIC PRODUCT. THE 31/00Z RUN OF THE GFS MODEL SHOWED A
DRY SLOT AT 700 MB MOVING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WHEREAS THE
MIMIC SHOWED THE DRY SLOT CLOSING UP AND ONLY VERY GOOD MOISTURE
OF BETTER THAN 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER POISED TO MOVE OVER
PUERTO RICO. THE SOUNDER CONFIRMS THIS HIGH MOISTURE AMOUNT.
THEREFORE SITUATION SEEMS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EXCEPT WETTER. BOTH
NAM AND GFS SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT THAT THIS WILL HOLD AND YIELD THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST COASTAL PLAINS OF THE ISLAND.
INCREASED POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LIGHT OF
MOISTURE. EVEN WITH THE DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA IN THE MODEL THE
1000-850 MB EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO AT 31/18Z WAS 346 DEGREES KELVIN...WHICH IS RESPECTABLE.
THEREFORE EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...WITH LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN KEEPING EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA AND GOOD MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION. THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST IN THE ECMWF AND MORE NORTHERLY IN
THE GFS AND THIS CHANGES CONDITIONS CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND WITH THE LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE BEST MOISTURE IS MORE SPOTTY.
THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THAT IN THE ECMWF THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME AM HOLDING WITH THE GFS WHICH APPEARS TO MATCH CLIMATOLOGY
BETTER. EITHER WAY EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE IN
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO AND CHANCES...ONLY...EVERYDAY OF THE SAME IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IN PUERTO RICO WILL
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITH THE THREAT OF
MUDSLIDES. TODAY WILL BE ONE OF THE WETTER DAYS...BUT THE
DIRECTION OF THE LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL DETERMINE TO A
GREAT EXTENT HOW WET THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE...WET
OR WETTER. AND THIS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
IN THE MORNING AFTER THUNDERSTORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH COAST
OF PR...EXCEPT FOR TJBQ AND TJMZ WHERE MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO CIGS CLOSE TO 3K FT. AFT 30/16Z...LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AS WELL AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJBQ...TJMZ...TJPS
AND POSSIBLY TJSJ IN SHRA AND TSRA. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO GROW WHEN LOW DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND WINDS ALSO INCREASE. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. VISIBILITIES IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 2 MILES FOR SHORT PERIODS OF
TIME...GENERALLY ONE HOUR OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 88 78 / 30 20 60 30
STT 88 79 86 78 / 20 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

HPC discussion for the entire Caribbean.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
659 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A CLOSED LOW
OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST TO
GUATEMALA/BELIZE-NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS SUSTAINS THE NORTHWARD
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO/HISPANIOLA. THE SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS
MOISTURE POOLING BETWEEN JAMAICA/EASTERN CUBA AND 20N 50W...WITH
MOIST TONGUE ENVELOPING HISPANIOLA-PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERED THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SUSTAINS AN ITCZ
MOIST SURGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ITCZ CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...WITH AXIS APPEARING NORTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION.

PER MODEL GUIDANCE...LOW ALOFT WILL RETROGRESS TO THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH 72 HRS...WHERE IT IS TO THEN STALL THROUGH DAY 05. AS THE
LOW/TROUGH RETROGRESSES...THIS WILL ALLOW SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
GRADUALLY REPOSITION...WITH AXIS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST BETWEEN
85W-60W BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. IT IS TO INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ AS IT MEANDERS NORTH OF
PANAMA/COSTA RICA...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A LOW FORMING OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS THE WAVE PROPAGATES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW EROSION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS PUERTO RICO/NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLES EARLY IN THE
CYCLE. BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LASTING...WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO
QUICKLY POOL INTO MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS TO
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STEERING FLOW AT 700
HPA IS TO RETAIN A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. AT 850 HPA...THEY WILL RETAIN A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

THE SLOW TO EVOLVE PATTERN WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...WITH MOST ACTIVE EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
EXPECTING MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THROUGH TOMORROW THE MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...WITH FOCUS TO
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO/USVI THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. IF ACTIVITY ACROSS HISPANIOLA
IS AS ACTIVE AS THE MODELS SUGGEST...DENSE CIRRUS AND DOWNSTREAM
DOWNWARD MOTION MIGHT TAKE SOME OF THE PUNCH FROM ACTIVITY TO
AFFECT PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE WEEK. MOST OF THE MODELS SEEM TO
SUBSCRIBE TO THIS SCENARIO.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1104 AM AST TUE MAY 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD ENLOGATED TROF EXTENDS FROM THE SW ATLC INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES WWD TO THE WRN CARIBBEAN BY WEEKS END. BROAD LOW PRES TO
DOMINATE THE WRN CNTRL CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANIMATION OF VIS AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS
DRIER AIR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX INCHING CLOSER TO
THE FCST AREA. THIS CONFIRMS WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FOR THE
NEXT 18-24 HRS WITH TPW VALUES DROPPING TO 1.75 INCHES BY 06Z
TONIGHT. OVERALL...AM EXPECTING A DOWN DAY IN CONVECTION TODAY WITH
ACTIVITY PICKING UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SURGE AGAIN INTO THE AREA.

AGREE WITH LATEST PMDCA DISCUSSION IN THAT MOST ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL OCCUR OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE A SIGNFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AND THAT DENSE CIRRUS AND
DOWNSTREAM DOWNWARD MOTION WILL TAKE SOME OF THE PUNCH FROM
ACTIVITY ACROSS PR. IS NOT REALLY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW
LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WHICH COULD HELP TAP
INTO DEEP EPAC AND ITCZ MOISTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH JUST VCTS AT JBQ. BETTER
CHANCES FOR AIR MASS TSTMS WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
JMZ/JSJ AND JBQ HAVING THE BEST CHANCES.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT IN NE SWELLS AND EAST NORTHEAST
GENERATED WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 88 78 / 30 20 60 30
STT 88 79 86 78 / 10 40 40 40

[msbee]

An early start to hurricane season?

By Dr. Jeff Masters
Published: 10:52 AM AST on May 31, 2011
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Wednesday, June 1, but the Caribbean is already showing signs of the change of seasons. Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity have increased in the region between Central America and Jamaica in recent days, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2 inches have been common over the past three days over Cuba, Hispaniola, and much of Central America. The subtropical jet stream has been bringing high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots over the Caribbean the past week, but this shear has fallen to 20 - 40 knots this morning, and is predicted to fall below 20 knots by Thursday. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in the region between Jamaica and Honduras by Thursday. This low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. There is some dry air over the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that may retard the process, but a surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently passing through the Lesser Antilles may counteract this, when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Some recent runs of the NOGPAS model have predicted development of a tropical depression by late this week, potentially affecting Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. The other models have not been as gung-ho, but have been showing the potential for a strong tropical disturbance with very heavy rains forming late this week. In any case, residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST TUE MAY 31 2011

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING OFF IS IMMINENT ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AS AN AREA OF LOWER VALUES ARRIVES FROM EAST. BUT
MIMIC/TPW INDICATES THAT THIS TREND WILL ONLY LAST 12 HOURS OR SO
BEFORE THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EAST CARIBBEAN PUMPS VALUES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES AGAIN. GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEK AND NEARS 2.5 INCHES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SEEMS PRETTY REASONABLE GIVEN THE SLOWLY
DEVELOPING DEEP LOW IN THE WEST CARIBBEAN AND PERSISTENT RIDGE
OVER THE EAST. AM LEANING AWAY FROM THE ECMWF IN ITS SOLUTION OF
DIGGING AN UPPER LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN GFS BY WEEKEND ALONG
60W. JET POSITIONS AND CONVERGENT/DIVERGENT COUPLETS DO NOT LOOK
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR COPIOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE REST OF THIS
WEEK THOUGH ONE WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH DETAIL AVAILABLE ATTM...MAY
HAVE TO ASSESS FLOODING ISSUES DAILY. UPPER FLOW EVENTUALLY VEERING
TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A WET PERIOD. POPS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH BUT TIMING HARD TO PIN DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
IN THE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR TJBQ AND TJMZ WHERE MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO CIGS CLOSE TO 3K FT. AFT 30/16Z...LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
TJBQ...TJMZ...TJPS AND POSSIBLY TJSJ IN SHRA AND TSRA. SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...LOWERED SOME WAVE HEIGHTS A FOOT OR SO FOR WED/THU.
THOUGH THE LOW DEVELOPING IN WEST CARIBBEAN MAY INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER EAST IT WILL NOT DO SO FOR AWHILE. IT
APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY PLAYER IN BOOSTING WAVES FOR NOW. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
BALANCE OF WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 87 / 20 50 30 40

[Macrocane]

Hi! The minimum temperatures registered this morning in Central America were pretty warm in most of the region, the highs were hot in some locations but not as hot as in early May, in fact in Panama they were cooler than normal today.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.1°C (48.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.4°C (56.1°F).
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.8°C (44.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 25.0°C (77.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.1°C (59.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.8°C (87.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.8°C (67.6°F).
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.4°C (97.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.1°C (80.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.2°C (72.0°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.June appears to be the same as May did,rainy. We are also watching the SW Caribbean for posible cyclone formation.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST WED JUN 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL
DRIFT NORTH DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AND EXTEND ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. COPIOUS MOISTURE DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
CARRIED IN IN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS LEFT THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH BUT
ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
FLOW HAS BEEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS BEEN
DECREASING OVER SAN JUAN DUE TO THE NARROW EAST-WEST DRY SLOT OVER
PUERTO RICO...BUT HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY AT THE SOUNDER IN
CHRISTIANSTED ON SAINT CROIX. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED
WIDELY...OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. COMMON DENOMINATORS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...HAVE BEEN THE FORMATION AND SUSTENANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT MOVES VERY SLOWLY NORTH
NORTHWEST...LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT ALLOWS
TROUGHING TO CONNECT THE TWO LOWS...AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT RIDGES INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO OUR
EAST AND CAUSES LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN SOUTHERLY. ALL OF THESE
SCENARIOS KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK. VARIATIONS ON THE THEME HAVE INCLUDED THE FORMATION OF
LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
AT THE MOMENT AM LEANING AWAY FROM SOLUTIONS THAT BRING TROPICAL
STORM FORMATION. GENERAL TROUGHING ACROSS HISPANIOLA APPEARS TO BE
A REASONABLE SOLUTION BUT WOULD BRING A GREAT DEAL MORE RAIN THAN
THE SOLUTION THAT KEEPS TROUGHING WEAK AND TAKES THE LOW ACROSS
CUBA. WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE GROUND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
SYNOPTIC PICTURE AFTER FRIDAY...BUT...WITH DAILY HEAT INDUCED
CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO THIS MEANS ANY SOLUTION MUST INCLUDE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH SOME
ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE EVENINGS AND OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS. AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...EITHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BRING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING...TO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AREAS THAT ARE GENERALLY UNACCUSTOMED TO
SUCH PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY MOISTURE DOES NOT
DIMINISH UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TIST/TISX/TJSJ. AFT 01/16Z...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ/TJMZ AND POSSIBLY
TJSJ AND TJPS IN SHRA AND TSRA. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR
TIST...TISX...TKPK...AND TNCM.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE
PREVALENT THAN USUAL...BUT WINDS AND WAVES...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
SOMEWHAT DURING THE WEEK...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 85 76 / 70 40 60 30
STT 86 77 86 77 / 30 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

It looks like a wet next few days for most of the Caribbean,so let's prepare for that.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
559 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2011

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. UPPER RIDGE
OVER MEXICO HAS STARTED ITS NORTHWARD MIGRATION INTO THE
USA...MAKING WAY TO A RETROGRESSING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
USA/GULF OF MEXICO. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS FLORIDA-THE GULF TO THE YUCATAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE NOW EXTENDS BETWEEN 80W/85W TO 40W AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 27N...ENVELOPING THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. AT LOW LEVELS...THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ
REMAINS NORTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION...AS IT EXTENDS
ACROSS COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 82W/83W TO
18N...WITH A DISORGANIZED LOW TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES
ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W FAVORS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN VENEZUELA/ABC ISLES AND CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO. THE PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH VALUES CONCENTRATING ALONG THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...WITH A MOIST TONGUE STRETCHING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. A DRY SLOT OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES IS QUICKLY EBBING AS TROPICAL WAVE
ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

AT UPPER LEVELS...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TUTT ALOFT SETTLING OVER
THE WESTERN GULF-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. BUT...THIS IS TO ONLY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/THE BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS
IS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER/STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE.

AT LOW/MID LEVELS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AS THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES IS
TO VEER FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE CYCLE TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES IN A MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH PWAT FORECAST
TO REMAIN ABOVE 50MM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FURTHERMORE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
ACROSS JAMAICA-HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. EXPECTING DENSE
HIGH CLOUDS DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM HISPANIOLA TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL
HEATING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT IMPACT OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

ON THE MEDIUM RANGE...EVOLUTION ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON
AMPLIFYING TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF IT
DEVELOPS AS THE GFS IS SUGGESTING...SUNDAY-MONDAY COULD BECOME
MORE ACTIVE.



ALEXANDER...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
DAVISON...NCEP (USA)

[BZSTORM]

Good Morning Everyone, hope everyone is well - logging in for the start of hurr season. Its been way way hot dry season from particularly from March - May here in Belize, even the older folk say hottest they remember in a while. Many areas suffering drought, with farmers in cayo and corazol losing livestock due to lack of water and grass for them. Also we've had lots of fires mostly pine ridge and Belize river valley areas, fires worse for all the debris from Hurr Richard still around in the unppopulated areas burning. One morning I woke to smoke everywhere couldn't get a fix on where fire was as smoke out on sea as well as North, South of us was told it wasn't even Belize generated, was from fires in Guatemala. Belize needs rain badly but not heavy storm, ground so dry water would just run off surface causing flooding. And the Kendal bridge is still no closer to completion so if heavy rains the Kendal river will flood and the South will be cut of from the North, not very reasuring for us in the South, as higher ground is inland in the North as a rule. So praying hard that this year no major storms come our way. But I will still prepare as every year packing my house down for the season, I used to do this in July ready for Sept/Oct but after last couple of years with storms coming so early inside Caribbean and close to Belize, now I start in June, so in event of heavy storm I don't have so much stuff to pack and store. Keep safe everyone this season