STORM2K

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Portastorm wrote:108 at Camp Mabry and 106 at the airport at 3 pm. Hell, at this point we might as well try and beat the all-time high of 112.

I saw that on the NWS site. We still have a few hours.

I always look forward to a pattern change in miserable record-setting heat. Seems to be one at the end of this discussion. It is approaching the hottest part of the year though (last week of July, first two weeks of August).


I'm done with Summer.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 232016
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
316 PM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Very hot temperatures continue early this afternoon with daily
records already broken at Austin Bergstrom International and Camp
Mabry. The Excessive Heat Warning for the Hill Country and areas
along the I-35 corridor along with a Heat Advisory for the remainder
of south central Texas will continue through 7 PM this evening.
Overnight lows will remain quite warm with temperatures generally in
the mid 70s to near 80. We do expect a weak cold front to move in
from the north this evening. With temperatures remaining warm well
into the evening hours and the weak front, we will maintain a low
chance for showers and storms for areas generally along and north of
a Llano to La Grange line. Forecast soundings suggest a deep,
inverted "V" profile will be in place. Should convection manage to
develop, very gusty winds can be expected with any thunderstorms. As
the boundary continues to slowly push southward into the region after
midnight, we will keep a low chance of convection in the forecast
for the Hill Country and I-35 corridor.

On Tuesday, northeasterly winds can be expected as the cold front
continues to weaken while moving slowly southward. We will maintain a
low chance for showers and storms to account for the frontal boundary
interacting with daytime heating. Temperatures will still be well
above normal on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 90s Hill Country to
near 107 along the Rio Grande. At this time, we have opted to not
issue any Heat Advisories and await another round of model guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Above normal temperatures continue into Wednesday, with a stout ridge
to our west remaining the dominant weather factor across Texas. Highs
will once again be in the mid 90s Hill Country to near 105 Rio
Grande. We have also kept a low chance for showers and storms along
the Rio Grande as moisture pooling and perhaps a weak upper
disturbance embedded in the northerly flow aloft will be enough to
generate some convection.

The remainder of the week appears dry and warm as the ridge to our
west begins to slowly weaken and slide a little farther westward. The
medium range models continue to suggest a pattern change into early
next week with the ridge axis becoming more dominant across the
Intermountain region of the western U.S. This will help develop a
downstream trough over the central and high plains states. While
unusual for this time of year, the models suggest another cold front
will move into Texas early next week. At the very least, it appears
temperatures will drop down closer to climatological normals early
next week. We will also introduce a low chance for showers and storms
across most of the region on Monday.

112F at the HWC in Lakeway Texas


LOL / SMDH

As long as these mid-latitude troughs keep dipping over the Eastern US, Texas will continue experiencing hotter-than-normal summers. As someone here recently mentioned, rain is the only way for much of Texas to keep cool during summer. And for the greatest reliable chances, the state would need to be removed from any mid-latitude influences.

It's basically a climate-change battle: warm west/cold east dipole vs tropics expansion?

107 at the house our hottest during this heat wave. Now 106.

nice work, Waco!

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1021516151468306435

wxman57 wrote:Just trying to liven things up a bit around here. Everyone seems so depressed that it's hot in July. It's supposed to be hot in July - it's JULY! However, it wouldn't be bad to have a bit of rain during the week.

Ok, I've got to agree with Wxman57 here on this one (has that ever happened?!?).

I've read some of these comments the last week or two and I'm like hey folks, this is July and this is Texas. I hate the heat as much as anyone on here, but for centuries, there's one undeniable reality about summer here and that's this: it's going to be hot and in some years, it's going to be EXTREMELY hot.

When I was in middle school, my family moved here a few months before the infamous summer of 1980 began. Then in Dec. 1983, I learned what real blue northers were like. Somewhere in that mix, the deadly Paris tornado and Hurricane Alicia happened. In the mid-1980s and early 1990s, there were some very rainy years and Lake Texoma even went over the spillway. Through all of that, I learned several truths about the weather here in our state:

1. It just about always gets hot at some point in June, July, August, and early September. And in some years, it can get pretty toasty in October and November too. Especially when deer season begins.

2. Every few years, there is going to be a really bad summer to remember (1980, the late 1990s, 2011, etc.)

3. It almost always finds a way to rain when the Sept. 1st dove season opener arrives.

4. You don't get a lot of hurricanes here, but when you do, they are likely going to be remembered for a LONG time (Harvey, Ike, Rita, Alicia, Allen, Carla, etc.).

5. It doesn't snow a lot in Central and South Texas (Sorry Portastorm!). But every so often...

6. It snows a little more in North Texas, but even then, you can only expect it once or twice a winter in most years. And once in a while, there is a winter to remember (2010) or a storm for the ages up here (the 1979 ice storm, the 12-inch snowstorm a few years ago, or the 2013 sleet storm along the Red River).

7. Record cold is rare, but like hurricanes, there are occasional cold snaps that become legendary (Dec. 1983 and Dec. 1989 come to mind).

8. Really bad EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes seem to happen more frequently in central Oklahoma (the Moore area, for instance), but they also happen here as Jarrell and Rowlett can attest too. With our share of twisters and bad hail storms, there aren't very many quiet springs in Texas.

9. As the late great Channel 5 TV meteorologist Harold Taft once said, the next drought in Texas begins as soon as the last flood has ended. You either have too much rain, not enough rain, and very rarely just what you need or want.

10. Did I mention that in the summertime, it gets hot here?

At 6:00 pm in Texarkana, it is 95 degrees. However, the dew-point is only 59, making for a heat index (94) less than the parent temperature.

Well the good news is we are almost 2/3rds way through meteorological summer! It's kind of equivalent to the end of February in winter. Fall is just around the corner.

We are still looking at a better pattern starting next week with more troughiness to help.

Ntxw wrote:Well the good news is we are almost 2/3rds way through meteorological summer! It's kind of equivalent to the end of February in winter. Fall is just around the corner.

We are still looking at a better pattern starting next week with more troughiness to help.

Yep, and the latest Euro Weeklies don't look bad for August either. Be patient guys, the end of this miserable weather pattern is near!

For the history books. Yay. Till the next one.

South Texas Storms wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Well the good news is we are almost 2/3rds way through meteorological summer! It's kind of equivalent to the end of February in winter. Fall is just around the corner.

We are still looking at a better pattern starting next week with more troughiness to help.

Yep, and the latest Euro Weeklies don't look bad for August either. Be patient guys, the end of this miserable weather pattern is near!

Best looking Euro Weeklies run a long while and they have been performing decently here lately, sniffing out this hot dry pattern (but as some have been saying, "that is just summer in Texas")

bubba hotep wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Well the good news is we are almost 2/3rds way through meteorological summer! It's kind of equivalent to the end of February in winter. Fall is just around the corner.

We are still looking at a better pattern starting next week with more troughiness to help.

Yep, and the latest Euro Weeklies don't look bad for August either. Be patient guys, the end of this miserable weather pattern is near!

Best looking Euro Weeklies run a long while and they have been performing decently here lately, sniffing out this hot dry pattern (but as some have been saying, "that is just summer in Texas")

Yeah near norm temps and several weeks of near to slightly above norm precip. Next 46 day precip anom shows green

I've been monitoring the bigger picture over the past couple of weeks. Sure, hot is to be expected in Texas in July, though we are breaking records, but much of the northern hemisphere of the planet is experiencing extreme heat. Large swaths of Europe and Asia are seeing record heat along with being plagued by drought. Wildfires are occurring above the arctic circle. Japan is experiencing many heat related deaths, Ottawa has barely seen any rain this month. There is quite a lot of heat occurring all over.

Back here at home, finally hints of relief on the horizon, maybe even some rain. Will be quite happy since the 3.12 inches that fell here at the Rain Cave this month is nothing more than a memory. The soil is quite dry even deep down and I've been noticing large trees getting stressed. We can't take these high temps for much longer so very glad to see them drop down to the upper 90s to 101. Also keep in mind there are two significant wildfires in Llano and Burnet counties so relief can't come soon enough.

weatherdude1108 wrote:For the history books. Yay. Till the next one.

Today was brutal. And I'm used to heat. At least people aren't dying like they are in Japan's heat wave. Til the next one? Causes/Solutions anyone???

utweather wrote:Til the next one? Causes/Solutions anyone???

Get rid of the Rocky Mountains. That way, the jet stream can maintain a more zonal mean position, allowing high pressure to elongate and settle north that it allows Texas summer rainfall. Just like it is on every other continent in the world.

utweather wrote:

weatherdude1108 wrote:For the history books. Yay. Till the next one.

Today was brutal. And I'm used to heat. At least people aren't dying like they are in Japan's heat wave. Til the next one? Causes/Solutions anyone???

It was brutal out today, and I tolerate pretty well (though I have never liked it). That "till the next one" was just a figure of speech, like "cheers", since we all know heat waves like this do occur regularly here.

Yeah, terrible about Japan! They're not used to it. Kind of like us with deep Arctic freezes I guess.

I agree with FunNestlé The Rockies mess things up for us as far as moisture sometimes.

It's SPRINKLING, SERIOUSLY!!

Texas Snowman wrote:

wxman57 wrote:Just trying to liven things up a bit around here. Everyone seems so depressed that it's hot in July. It's supposed to be hot in July - it's JULY! However, it wouldn't be bad to have a bit of rain during the week.

Ok, I've got to agree with Wxman57 here on this one (has that ever happened?!?).

I've read some of these comments the last week or two and I'm like hey folks, this is July and this is Texas. I hate the heat as much as anyone on here, but for centuries, there's one undeniable reality about summer here and that's this: it's going to be hot and in some years, it's going to be EXTREMELY hot.

When I was in middle school, my family moved here a few months before the infamous summer of 1980 began. Then in Dec. 1983, I learned what real blue northers were like. Somewhere in that mix, the deadly Paris tornado and Hurricane Alicia happened. In the mid-1980s and early 1990s, there were some very rainy years and Lake Texoma even went over the spillway. Through all of that, I learned several truths about the weather here in our state:

1. It just about always gets hot at some point in June, July, August, and early September. And in some years, it can get pretty toasty in October and November too. Especially when deer season begins.

2. Every few years, there is going to be a really bad summer to remember (1980, the late 1990s, 2011, etc.)

3. It almost always finds a way to rain when the Sept. 1st dove season opener arrives.

4. You don't get a lot of hurricanes here, but when you do, they are likely going to be remembered for a LONG time (Harvey, Ike, Rita, Alicia, Allen, Carla, etc.).

5. It doesn't snow a lot in Central and South Texas (Sorry Portastorm!). But every so often...

6. It snows a little more in North Texas, but even then, you can only expect it once or twice a winter in most years. And once in a while, there is a winter to remember (2010) or a storm for the ages up here (the 1979 ice storm, the 12-inch snowstorm a few years ago, or the 2013 sleet storm along the Red River).

7. Record cold is rare, but like hurricanes, there are occasional cold snaps that become legendary (Dec. 1983 and Dec. 1989 come to mind).

8. Really bad EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes seem to happen more frequently in central Oklahoma (the Moore area, for instance), but they also happen here as Jarrell and Rowlett can attest too. With our share of twisters and bad hail storms, there aren't very many quiet springs in Texas.

9. As the late great Channel 5 TV meteorologist Harold Taft once said, the next drought in Texas begins as soon as the last flood has ended. You either have too much rain, not enough rain, and very rarely just what you need or want.

10. Did I mention that in the summertime, it gets hot here?

ha! so true for the opening weekend of deer season and dove season. I don't think ive ever hunted an opening day of deer season that wasn't hot!