STORM2K

MJO currently in Phase 7, will move into Phase 8 later this week, & will stay into the favorable Severe Weather Phases into Early May for sure . . .

GFS Trending closer to the SPC's Outlook . . .

A couple of things I've noticed on the recent model runs.
1) Friday is trending up... GFS is starting to cave to the Euro, and the SREF now has a 60 sigtor contour in NE TX (For reference, both high risk days in March had a 90 contour, which is the highest it goes)
2) Tuesday looks... Especially if the Euro verifies. The models have been pretty consistent regarding that setup, and while it's still a week out, I think it has a ton of potential...

Uh... Let's just hope the Euro is enjoying 4/20 day... I hope the next run doesn't look like that... And that's coming from me who loves storms
https://mobile.twitter.com/JReber16/sta ... 6297985024

18z GFS soundings for Friday's potential outbreak . . .

Near Chickasha, OK (Potentially contaminated, the blue bar is shooting off to the left)


Near Tecumseh, OK (Also potentially contaminated, but on the red side)

Weather Dude wrote:A couple of things I've noticed on the recent model runs.
1) Friday is trending up... GFS is starting to cave to the Euro, and the SREF now has a 60 sigtor contour in NE TX (For reference, both high risk days in March had a 90 contour, which is the highest it goes)
2) Tuesday looks... Especially if the Euro verifies. The models have been pretty consistent regarding that setup, and while it's still a week out, I think it has a ton of potential...

Can I see what the SREF model is showing on the Significant Tornado Contour?

(Italics): What is the Euro looking like in SCP & CAPE? And Soundings?

Iceresistance wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:A couple of things I've noticed on the recent model runs.
1) Friday is trending up... GFS is starting to cave to the Euro, and the SREF now has a 60 sigtor contour in NE TX (For reference, both high risk days in March had a 90 contour, which is the highest it goes)
2) Tuesday looks... Especially if the Euro verifies. The models have been pretty consistent regarding that setup, and while it's still a week out, I think it has a ton of potential...

Can I see what the SREF model is showing on the Significant Tornado Contour?

(Italics): What is the Euro looking like in SCP & CAPE? And Soundings?

I'm not sure where SREF is actually I just got it from another forum. I think all that stuff for the Euro is premium only so I can't access it.

0z GFS is a flop for 4/27. I don't think the event itself will be as big as what the 12z Euro showed (at least let's hope not). But with the SPC mentioning a *possible* Day 7 slight risk, you have to wonder...
Either way plenty of time for it to trend either way as it's still a week out. But it wouldn't be a good showing for the GFS if it gets outdueled by the Euro two events in row... I'm siding with the Euro for now. We'll see what happens.

GEFS however...

Day 7 slight risk up and SPC already mentioning higher probs possible...

Very broad Slight risk for Friday

Hatched area from Austin, TX to OKC & into Guthrie, OK

MORE Severe weather expected Next Tuesday (7 days out)

Iceresistance wrote:MORE Severe weather expected Next Tuesday (7 days out)

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/day7prob.gif

Yeah I mentioned earlier that they are already mentioning increasing probs... This really has potential to be something we haven't seen here in a long time...

Weather Dude wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:MORE Severe weather expected Next Tuesday (7 days out)

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/day7prob.gif

Yeah I mentioned earlier that they are already mentioning increasing probs... This really has potential to be something we haven't seen here in a long time...

Forecasting something this far out with this much confidence is something to be seriously aware of. We will have what looks like a train of outbreaks following it.

Weather Dude wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:MORE Severe weather expected Next Tuesday (7 days out)

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/day7prob.gif

Yeah I mentioned earlier that they are already mentioning increasing probs... This really has potential to be something we haven't seen here in a long time...

I've just saw the KWTV-News 9 Forecast


Also, I'm seeing a potentially major outbreak next Tuesday as well . . .

This setup is CRAZY!

High CAPE
Very Strong Jet Stream
Very Rich Moisture
Somewhat Strong Cap (Allows only the strongest supercells to form)
And a nearby storm system

Starting to think Saturday could get pretty crazy in Dixie. I haven't paid as much attention to it as the plains setups but it looks to be uptrending.

Yeah and its a bit further East. My area could get some serious stuff again. I am just outside the risk zone on the day 4 outlook, I am north of it but I expect it will be expanded to include a much larger area tomorrow.

6z CFSv2 Model

Friday's event


Surface-Based CAPE


Next Tuesday's Potential




Surface-Based CAPE

I found this uncontaminated sounding on the 18z GFS model near Tecumseh, OK at +54 hours . . .

Finally found out how to access the SREF sigtor probs (took me long enough ) Anyway, here it is for Friday (max is 90).


As for the upcoming Day 2 outlook, I think it's a toss up whether they upgrade to enhanced or not, leaning towards yes. CAM's are messy, but it's their max range so that will likely change as we get closer. Also I think there's a chance NE OK could get upgraded to a slight risk eventually.

Also want to mention there's a 60 contour for Sat. now as well.

Slight risk extended into SW Oklahoma . . .


The Tornado threat is higher there . . .


Hail is the BIGGEST threat . . .