Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS. For entertainment only!

[StormingB81]

It will be gone next run...lol

[TheStormExpert]

Just like hurricane season! Though it will have to eventually get it right one day.

[psyclone]

they'll get it right one day. just not this year. Weren't we supposed to have a big freeze at the beginning of Feb? We've had plenty of cool, slightly below normal weather but no big (or even little) freezes. It's actually been quite nice and it looks to continue.

[SFLcane]

GFS is joined by the EURO in these extreme cold temps to southern florida. Watching ..

[psyclone]

yes these runs are alarming. I hope they're wrong but early Feb remains a dangerous time of the year...

[asd123]

12Z GFS. For entertainment only!

http://i62.tinypic.com/skupv5.png

:uarrow: It will be gone next run...lol

Not necessarily

All Images Below Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:
1AM temps


I also wanted to add that per 18z GFS, it shows from 180 hours and beyond a cold period for much of Central Florida northward. (the GFS has been hinting at this for couple runs now).

Central Florida forecast lows:

2/10/15: mid to upper 40s
2/11/15: mid to upper 30s
2/12/15: mid to upper 40s
2/13/15: low to mid 30s
2/14/15: upper 30s to low 40s
2/15/15: mid to upper 40s
2/16/15: mid to upper 20s
2/17/15: low to mid 30s
2/18/15: mid to upper 40s

In addition, this GFS run shows very cold 850 mb temps for Florida for the big cfla feb freeze:


In addition, king EURO as some of you call it has been hinting at a freeze for central fla. and -4 850mb temps around 10-12 of February. Additionally this 12z Euro run is the first run that doesn't show the big southeast snow for SE GA, SC, and some snow for extreme NE FLA (10-11 of February). The Euro had shown this for 2 runs in a row before dropping it. (Note that this was seen on Weatherbell).

[psyclone]

The issue of course is that this thread is littered with model depictions showing big freeze events 1 to 2 weeks out and none of them verified.

[StormingB81]

As long as it is decent on Feb 22...I dont want it to cold as I am at the Daytona 500 lol

[TheStormExpert]

Probably not worth a whole lot since the Euro has not been doing so hot in the long range as of lately, but nonetheless it is worth watching cause it is the Euro.

This is probably one of the sharpest and maybe one of the strongest troughs I've seen from any of the models so far this winter season.







The NAO has gone briefly negative then will trend slightly positive before trending negative again. The AO is negative for another week before briefly going positive again followed by a return to negative territory. Finally, the PNA is gradually trending positive and looks to stay positive for the next 2 weeks at least. Of course this all can and will change each and every day, but I thought it would be helpful to catchup on the latest with the teleconnections.

NAO Forecast


AO Forecast


PNA Forecast

[SFLcane]

[TheStormExpert]

Probably the coldest temps the GFS has shown for Florida this winter! That would definitely be record breaking. Of course odds of this happening on that date or at all are slim to none unless the NAO bottomed out negative.

[northjaxpro]

Manaaged to get down to 31.4 degrees this morning at my locale, the eighth freeze of the season here to this point. Cool day in store with partly cloudy conditions and max temps in the upper 50s.

Rain chances will increase come later Wednesday through Thursday night as a southern stream shortwave will traverse across the Northern Gulf cosast region and spawn a Low Pressure area to develop and move across Central Florida late Thursday. Colder temps for the peninsula this weekend as a longwave trough will sharpen along the Eastern U.S. Seaboard and cold Canadian High Pressure will build down into the region. Temps this weekend may drop into the upper 20s across the colder interior spots of the northern peninsula, especially Saturday morning.

[NDG]

The theme for this winter for the GFS and Euro's medium to long range forecast for central and southern FL: "I believe it when I see it"
I have lost count how many times how many times they have forecasted freezing temps for my area and as time gets closer they start showing otherwise, lol.

[StormingB81]

I say if it does pan out and gets that cold it might as well bring snow and be cold for a reason..haha....Although I will barricade myself in my house if it EVER snows here lol

[psyclone]

Peak freeze season for the peninsula runs from mid Dec to mid Feb. After mid Feb freeze frequency and severity tails off rapidly. I want to bang the gavel and declare (freeze) season cancel (like some of our folks do during cane season) but it's just too soon. Time is a ticking though..

[Sanibel]

With a mild January a cold shot in February is more likely.


The north is going into one of those snow preservation cold trends that happen in certain winters.

[tropicana]

TUE FEB 3 2015

The warmest spot in Florida today: West Kendall Tamiami at 79F
The coolest low was 29F at Crestview.

The coolest daytime high today" 50F at Panama City.
The mildest nighttime low was 62F at Key West

-Justin-

[gatorcane]

I see no indication of any freeze for peninsula Florida looking at the latest GFS and ECMWF runs

[HURRICANELONNY]

I see no indication of any freeze for peninsula Florida looking at the latest GFS and ECMWF runs

Did you really think there would be. Those models especially GFS has been giving those future runs all winter.

Both the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS are showing it could
bring some significantly cooler air to South Florida. However, there
is still very low confidence in this and models are already bouncing
around with how far south the cold air will make it.
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... SCltWmC.99