Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

We are receiving our first dose of decent rainfall here in Palm Beach County in quite awhile. This is all thanks to a squall line or big mass of moisture ahead of the approaching cold front. It's been a rocky morning with lightning and thunder as well occasionally, along with some pretty gusty winds at times.

[psyclone]

both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have trended colder.

[TheStormExpert]

One thing I must say is with the current pattern we've been in for the past nearly 2 weeks we should be very fortunate and happy that the NAO has not dove negative at all this winter (especially now). If that was the case we would probably be experiencing damaging freezes all the way down into S. Florida!

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the cold front is moving into Palm Beach County and S. Florida as of now with some heavy showers and downpours ahead of it.

[Bocadude85]

Confirmed EF-1 tornado in Boca Raton today. The winds were howling this morning around 7:30am as the storm moved through.

1239 UNK 1 ENE BOCA WEST PALM BEACH FL 2639 8014 WINDOWS WERE BLOWN OUT OF A HOUSE NEAR BOCA WEST. A TREE WAS DOWN ACROSS A DRIVEWAY AND A FENCE BLOWN DOWN. (MFL)

1236 1 ENE BOCA WEST PALM BEACH FL 2638 8015 PRELIMINARY RATING OF EF-1. SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED HALFWAY UP TRUNKS. TREE ONTO HOUSE. ROOF AND WINDOW DAMAGES. (MFL)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

[HURRICANELONNY]

Confirmed EF-1 tornado in Boca Raton today. The winds were howling this morning around 7:30am as the storm moved through.

1239 UNK 1 ENE BOCA WEST PALM BEACH FL 2639 8014 WINDOWS WERE BLOWN OUT OF A HOUSE NEAR BOCA WEST. A TREE WAS DOWN ACROSS A DRIVEWAY AND A FENCE BLOWN DOWN. (MFL)

1236 1 ENE BOCA WEST PALM BEACH FL 2638 8015 PRELIMINARY RATING OF EF-1. SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED HALFWAY UP TRUNKS. TREE ONTO HOUSE. ROOF AND WINDOW DAMAGES. (MFL)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

Wow. Hope no damage. Just needed rain down here.

[NDG]

both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have trended colder.

Yeap, the pattern over the next 2 weeks looks to stay in place of lower heights for the eastern US coast, but two things working for us: overall positive NAO which means the core of the Arctic air shots will continue to push offshore into the NW Atlantic and not dive straight southward towards FL and now we have a higher sun angle working in our favor.

[Bocadude85]

Here is the public information statement for the tornado in Boca Raton on 2-5-15

000
NOUS42 KMFL 060210
PNSMFL
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-061415-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
910 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 02/05/15 BOCA WEST TORNADO UPDATE...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-100 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50-70 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: FEB 5 2015
START TIME: 736 AM EST
START LOCATION: 1 ENE BOCA WEST, FL
START LAT/LON: 26.3838, -80.1528

END DATE: FEB 5 2015
END TIME: 738 AM EST
END LOCATION: 1 ENE BOCA WEST, FL
END_LAT/LON: 26.3895, -80.1418

SURVEY SUMMARY: THE TORNADO HAD TWO SEPARATE TOUCHDOWNS. THE INITIAL
TOUCHDOWN OF THE TORNADO OCCURRED AT 736 AM EST...WITH DAMAGE RATING
OF EF-1 MAGNITUDE. DAMAGE CONSISTED OF SEVERAL UPROOTED TREES...SEVERAL
LARGE TREES SNAPPED HALFWAY UP...AND A TREE FELLED INTO A HOUSE.
ROOFING WAS DAMAGED FROM DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS...AND STRONG WINDS
ALSO REMOVED NUMEROUS SPANISH TILES FROM MANY HOMES. OF NOTE IS
A PROJECTILE IN THE FORM OF A 6-12 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB
WHICH PUNCTURED A ROOF. THE TREE LIMB WAS LIKELY CARRIED BY THE
TORNADO FROM AN ADJACENT NEIGHBORHOOD.

THE SECOND TOUCHDOWN WAS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE INITIAL
TOUCHDOWN. DAMAGE AT THAT LOCATION REPRESENTED EF-0 MAGNITUDE.
ROOF DAMAGE...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNED TREES AND BRANCHES
WERE OBSERVED.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI WOULD LIKE TO THANK NUMEROUS
SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...MEDIA AND LOCAL RESIDENTS WHICH
GREATLY CONTRIBUTED TO TODAY`S SURVEY AND REPORT.

NOTE:
THIS IS AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS STATEMENT ISSUED AT 429 PM. THE
ENDING LAT LON OF THE TORNADO WAS SLIGHTLY CHANGED.

THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

[gatorcane]

The GFS model has been consistent in showing some chilly weather into the FL peninsula for late next weekend. Here is the latest 18Z output at 186 hours. There is super cold arctic outbreak the GFS is ushering into the NE United States, so it will be interesting to see if some of that breaks off and heads further south impacting areas into the SE CONUS:



The ECMWF model also shows the frigid arctic air into the Northeastern CONUS and shows it swiping Florida with the cold just to the north. These runs are pretty far out so it wouldn't take a whole lot for them to trend colder to put areas in Central Florida into the freeze threat:

[TheStormExpert]

The latest NAO forecast shows it gradually trying to trend negative though I'm not too sure it will after how it's been behaving this winter. Also the AO is heading positive, and the PNA is forecast to stay positive. All in all I have a hard time believing this will happen as it has been showing such solutions in the medium/long range all winter!

NAO Forecast


AO Forecast


PNA Forecast

[northjaxpro]

As you StormExpert and Gatorcane discussed above, Florida will be in a cooler pattern overall for at least the next ten days. Later this week, an arctic airmass will dive southeast over New England. This will be brutal for those folks because of all of that deep snowpack up there, that airmass will not moderate much at all. The core of that arctic air will stay in that region of the country. We should stay mostly dry as the upper flow will remain mAinly northwesterly late this week. Now, we will see only a "glancing blow" with only just a piece of colder air moving down into the Deep South by the end of this coming week. I took a look at the forecast models and they are indicating a possible light freeze over North Florida on next Saturday morning (Valentine's Day)

So, nothing atypical with the pattern in terms of arctic air heading south. This has been the case all winter long to this point. As NDG pointed out, the positive/neutral NAO and the higher sun angle are continuing to make those who want some cool weather remain disappointed. So, here in my area, may see a couple of more freezes later this month, and unless Mother Nature shocks us with a late season cold spells in March, which can happen of course, the winter of
2014-15 will be another above average season here. At this point of the season, Only 8 freezes have been measured at my locale. The normal average total is 15 freezes in a typical winter here in Northeast Florida.

BUT, at least here in Jax Mother Nature gave us that rare ocean effect light snow event. About a month ago that gave this area a highlight of the winter season for sure!

[NDG]

Those poor folks around the Great Lakes and NE US, what brutal February they've been having with some of it spilling down to parts of the SE US from time to time.
I get the feeling FL will have a big Spring Break Season from people from that area looking for the warmer weather.

[gatorcane]

GFS persistent on 30s for interior Central Florida this coming weekend. 06Z run below showing temps for late Fri night early Sat morning, though has trended a few degrees warmer overall from yesterday's run:

[northjaxpro]

That probably will continue to get a bit warmer with those temps Gatorcane. We are expecting only the lower 30s by Saturday morning here in Jax. We'll see, but these cold air masses that try and impact us are beginning to moderate quickly. The higher sun angle and lack of a snowpack outside of New England and the Great Lakes region and with the core of the arctic air staying well north of here, I would think areas of Central Florida will probably be closer to the upper 30s - lower 40s for mins by Valentine's morning.

[psyclone]

this has been a strange winter marked by persistent chill...long periods of slightly to moderately below normal temps...but a complete absence of big blasts of frigid air that deliver freezes to the region. it looks like most of February is going to wind up consisting of the same.

[NDG]

this has been a strange winter marked by persistent chill...long periods of slightly to moderately below normal temps...but a complete absence of big blasts of frigid air that deliver freezes to the region. it looks like most of February is going to wind up consisting of the same.

I agree, though this winter so far has been slightly cooler than last year's winter specially compared to February of last year when mid 80s were very common, last year we had a couple of light freezes during January here in Orlando when so far this winter we have not had anywhere close to a light freeze event other than a couple of mornings with light frost on the roofs.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS with mid 30s into Central Florida for this Friday night, now we are only 114 hours out. It has trended a little colder than the 12Z run:



Canadian model shows the 30F line all the way down into interior SW Florida and has trended colder also than from it's 00Z run, coldest temps are Sat. night here:

[asd123]

18Z GFS with mid 30s into Central Florida for this Friday night, now we are only 114 hours out. It has trended a little colder than the 12Z run:

http://i61.tinypic.com/2vhzoxt.png

Canadian model shows the 30F line all the way down into interior SW Florida and has trended colder also than from it's 00Z run, coldest temps are Sat. night here:

http://i62.tinypic.com/2ufuc6d.png

Yeah and don't forget the GEFS; has been trending colder:

All Images Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits:

GEFS 30-32 for Orlando area Thursday and Friday nights:

Thursday Night:


Friday Night:

[NDG]

0z GFS trended even colder for the weekend. It has low temps in the low 30s Friday morning all the way down to parts of Orlando and upper 20s all the way down to Orlando for Sunday morning. So is the GFS is crack? I guess we will see.
In the other hand the Euro has not been that aggressive with the upcoming Arctic blast, at least with the first wave coming through Thursday night. It has the coldest morning Saturday morning with temps in the mid to upper 30s across central and parts of southern FL, with lighter winds and clear skies forecasted that would mean a chance for a frosty morning. Instead of upper 20s for Sunday morning it shows lows in the low to mid 40s for Orlando but staying very chilly on the day Sunday. The Euro shows a potential light freezing event for next Monday morning but that's beyond its 168hr forecast which a lot could still change.

[gatorcane]

0z GFS trended even colder for the weekend. It has low temps in the low 30s Friday morning all the way down to parts of Orlando and upper 20s all the way down to Orlando for Sunday morning. So is the GFS is crack? I guess we will see.
In the other hand the Euro has not been that aggressive with the upcoming Arctic blast, at least with the first wave coming through Thursday night. It has the coldest morning Saturday morning with temps in the mid to upper 30s across central and parts of southern FL, with lighter winds and clear skies forecasted that would mean a chance for a frosty morning. Instead of upper 20s for Sunday morning it shows lows in the low to mid 40s for Orlando but staying very chilly on the day Sunday. The Euro shows a potential light freezing event for next Monday morning but that's beyond its 168hr forecast which a lot could still change.

06Z GFS nearly identical: Freeze all the way down to the Ft. Myers / SW Florida area and Orlando is showing upper 20s.




NWS Melbourne not biting on the GFS freeze forecast yet:

WED-SUN...A BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN US WHICH WILL PROMOTE A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THE
FRONTS SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. REINFORCING COLD DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THU
NIGHT/FRI AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TREND
TOWARD COLDER TEMPS THOUGH THE EXTENDED GFS MOS SHOWS INEXPLICABLY
COLD TEMPS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND HAS BEEN
REJECTED. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT KEPT THEM ABOVE
FREEZING. THE MORE REASONABLE ECMWF MOS FOR THIS PERIOD DOES HINT
AT NEAR FREEZING TEMPS NORTH OF ORLANDO. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S WED-THU...DROPPING INTO THE 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH
FRI WITH ONLY SLIGHT RECOVERY THIS WEEKEND

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

NWS Tampa does not discuss the GFS freeze forecast in it's latest disco:

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND
A FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
THEN SHIFT SE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE MODERATING. A DRY FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1