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abajan wrote:That wave in the central Atlantic certainly has some spin to it.
Incidentally, we had some serious winds, rain, lightning and thunder from an instability line that moved through late yesterday afternoon.
Tropical Wave In The Central Atlantic:
A tropical wave in the central Atlantic that I have been tracking over the last few days lacks convection this morning. The reason for this is because the dry, dusty Saharan Air Layer is undercutting any convective development. Even with that, I think the chances are quite good that this dry air will mix itself out once it gets close to the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday. Once this dry air is mixed out, I think we will see this tropical wave consolidate and strengthen into an area of low pressure by late this weekend and early next week as it approaches the southeastern Bahamas.
The global model guidance have backed way off on forecasting tropical development from this tropical wave. Even with this, the pattern is such next week that could favor a tropical disturbance tracking westward underneath a large ridge of high pressure and strengthening due to favorable environmental conditions. For now, this is a tropical wave that needs to be watched closely and there is a fairly good chance that it may never develop into a tropical cyclone; however, with that said, there is also just as equal of a chance that this system could be a real problem next week in terms of developing into a tropical cyclone. I will be keeping a close eye on this tropical wave and will keep you all updated on the latest.
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/sp ... e_2007.phptropicana wrote:abajan wrote:That wave in the central Atlantic certainly has some spin to it.
Incidentally, we had some serious winds, rain, lightning and thunder from an instability line that moved through late yesterday afternoon.
yeah abajan, in all, Grantley Adams Barbados picked up 18mm of rain from those storms Tuesday, but Rockley in Christchurch saw near 31mm
-justin-
Tropical Wave Located 500 Miles East Of The Windward Islands:
I am closely watching a tropical wave that is located around 500 miles to the east of the Windward Islands this morning. This tropical wave is producing on and off popcorn type shower and thunderstorm activity, where it fires up for several hours and then weakens thereafter. The reason for the lack of deep, sustained convection is that there continues to be a large amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara of Africa.
This tropical wave is expected to continue tracking west-northwestward this weekend into next week and will bring some very squally weather to the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico from Saturday into Sunday with heavy rainfall and gusty winds to 40 to 50 mph expected.
Even though vertical wind shear values are low enough to support tropical development, the dry, dusty air near this tropical wave will prevent it from developing into a tropical cyclone. Water vapor satellite loops indicate that the atmosphere is moister near the Bahamas and it is possible that this tropical wave may try to develop into a tropical cyclone once it reaches the Bahamas on Monday and Tuesday; although, this is not a sure thing. Only the NOGAPS model is forecasting development into a tropical cyclone during the early and middle part of next week. All of the other global model guidance members are saying no to development.
At this point, I think it is going to be a pretty much wait and see game for the next several days. I will say I do not expect tropical cyclone development from this tropical wave from today through Sunday night with the first chance of possible development arriving during Monday and Tuesday. Either way, I will keep a close eye on this tropical wave and will keep you all updated on the latest.
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