Texas Summer 2018

[Ntxw]

Still looking like guidance is showing general trough next week nearby. Hoping for good chances of rain. If we can repeat the first week of August like last year that would be a plus!

[weatherdude1108]

Our local weather guys regurgitate what they see at the NWS, but it's still nice to see a "light at the end of the tunnel" graphic. Temperatures back to NORMAL 96-97 degree highs, with chances of water included.

[weatherdude1108]

[weatherdude1108]

They mentioned a "mid summer night`s rainfall." I assume it's a play on words for Shakespeare's A Midsummer Night's Dream(?). It may actually be active on this Monday-Tuesday Summer night.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 251950
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
250 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
across the Rio Grande Plains. A weak disturbance moved south across
the Big Bend Region this morning and residual outflow boundaries have
kicked off a few showers and storms already across West Texas. Any
showers and storms that do form should weaken with the loss of
daytime heating.

As high pressure remains to our west tonight will be a mostly clear
and mild night with lows in the low to mid 70s. Winds that have been
light and variable through the day will switch around to be out of
the southeast tonight allowing for a flow return of Gulf moisture.
Highs for Thursday will be similar to today and top out around the
Century mark. The Rio Grande Plains will see temps 1 or 2 degrees
above 100, while the Hill Country and Coastal Pains will be 1 or 2
degrees below 100.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
For Friday through Sunday the upper level ridge of high pressure
will continue to drift slowly westward each day. While it remains
close enough to influence our weather, Friday through Sunday, will
be almost carbon copies of one another. Highs each afternoon will be
near 100 for the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains,
with temps reaching up to 102-104 across the Rio Grande Plains. Heat
index values will begin to creep up as well into Saturday and Sunday
due to increased moisture, with values of 102-105 across much of the
area. Overnights will see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with
lows in the mid to upper 70s. This is still about 2-4 degrees above
normal for late July for both daytime highs and overnight lows.

Monday will see a pattern change begin as the ridge parks over
Southern California and amplifies. With the stronger ridge in the
west the synoptic trough will deepen across the eastern half of the
U.S. Northerly flow over the Great Plains will drive a cold front
south into our area late Monday into Tuesday. Despite being five and
six days out the GFS and ECWMF are in good agreement about the
timing, strength, and QPF associated with the front. What this
translates to is another fairly decent shot of some mid summer
night`s rainfall. While rain will start across the north with the
approach of the front Monday afternoon, Monday night does look to be
the best chance of more widespread precipitation lasting into
Tuesday. Given that the front is still a few days off have maintained
the 20-40 percent PoPs in the grids, but the agreement in the models
is encouraging. Thanks to the cloud cover and potential precipitation
highs for Monday and Tuesday would `cool off` into the mid-90s for
much of the area.

[srainhoutx]

While looking at today's CPC Day 6 to 10 Outlook, I came across my saved graphics for this date in July 2017. There are some interesting resemblances to the Upper Air Pattern which raised an eyebrow as we near the 1 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Harvey. Be careful what you wish for. As I looked further at last year this date, I also see comparisons to a wet phase of the MJO arriving near August 1st as well as a robust CCKW this time last year. We are seeing a somewhat similar pattern attempting to develop. It may be time to monitor those African T waves splashing into the Eastern Atlantic and making that long trek across the MDR into the Caribbean Sea. We will see.

[Haris]

Over 2" near Austin on Monday! YES PLEASE!

PS; If we do get 2 inches, our July rain total goes over half foot

[1900hurricane]

With temps dropping nearly 10ºF from the past couple of days at nearby Llano, I decided to hike Enchanted Rock today. Temps were only a brisk 102ºF today.

[BrokenGlass]

While looking at today's CPC Day 6 to 10 Outlook, I came across my saved graphics for this date in July 2017. There are some interesting resemblances to the Upper Air Pattern which raised an eyebrow as we near the 1 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Harvey. Be careful what you wish for. As I looked further at last year this date, I also see comparisons to a wet phase of the MJO arriving near August 1st as well as a robust CCKW this time last year. We are seeing a somewhat similar pattern attempting to develop. It may be time to monitor those African T waves splashing into the Eastern Atlantic and making that long trek across the MDR into the Caribbean Sea. We will see.

If I remember last August, that early August cool stretch was followed by some brutal heat that ran into September.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[weatherdude1108]

Over 2" near Austin on Monday! YES PLEASE!

PS; If we do get 2 inches, our July rain total goes over half foot

So ironic.lol Wet beginning of July, dry and hot middle, wet end.

[Haris]

WOW! Yess

[TheProfessor]

Hopefully the GFS pans out, DFW needs a nice spread out rain event.

[Brent]

hoping I come back to a better pattern... been hot as you know what here in Vegas.

[weatherdude1108]

Me likey!


000
FXUS64 KEWX 260840
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
340 AM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
The Subtropical Ridge remains the dominant influence today through
Sunday. Although it`s centered over Arizona and Southern California,
its axis extends over our area. Above normal daytime temperatures
continue with only a degree or so difference from day to day. Daytime
mixing keeps heat indices near the temperatures, however, a subtle
rise is expected by Sunday as lower level moisture increases.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Wednesday)...
While the center of the Ridge moves little, an upper level shortwave
drops south over the Plains on Monday eroding the eastern part of the
Ridge, then carves out a large upper level trough generally centered
from the western Great Lakes to the Mississippi Valley by Wednesday.
This sends a cold front into Central Texas the Hill Country late
Monday and across South Central Texas Monday night into Tuesday.
Moisture convergence along the front and upward forcing by the front
and the shortwave will generate showers and thunderstorms Monday
through Tuesday. There has been good agreement among the last few
runs of the models and confidence is increasing for a rain event.
Temperatures will "cool" off to near normal in the wake of the front.
Some spots may see below normal nighttime temperatures due to a
drier airmass.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight ensemble guidance threw out a curveball regarding the Teleconnection Indices suggest a more significant Hemispheric Pattern change may be in the cards as we start August. We will need to monitor the 12Z suite of guidance to see if this is just a blip, or if it is a signal that more significant changes are brewing.

Regarding the next week, the deep trough still looks likely and if the ECMWF is correct, the trough may well be centered over Texas at the base of that trough appears to be anchored over our Region through Day 10. The front pushes offshore and stalls and a weak wave of low pressure develops offshore, but as of now is not that impressive. Chance chances look to increase next Monday through Wednesday at least with the stalled boundary nearby.

The long range GFS is indicating that the Monsoonal trough that has been well South across Africa is gaining some latitude suggesting thunderstorm complexes will splash into the Eastern Atlantic a bit further N as the tropical waves transition across the Atlantic/MDR. Sea Surface Temperature across the MDR have warmed a bit that past several days and the trade winds appear to be slowing and wind shear may be decreasing as well. We'll have a lot to watch in the weather department as we head toward peak Hurricane Season, so stay tuned.

[Haris]

Extreme drought in parts of NTX

[Haris]

12Z gfs continues to be a big outlier for Central Texas...

[Cpv17]

Big changes on the Euro from the 0z to 12z. Not good changes either and today’s updated CPC forecast reflects that.

[starsfan65]

Big changes on the Euro from the 0z to 12z. Not good changes either and today’s updated CPC forecast reflects that.

What does it show?

[Cpv17]

Big changes on the Euro from the 0z to 12z. Not good changes either and today’s updated CPC forecast reflects that.

What does it show?

I’m no expert, but it appears to me the trough is weaker and it doesn’t dig down as far south as in previous runs and it looks to be more progressive as well. Previous runs of the Euro had the trough sticking around Texas for a few days like a cutoff low out of the flow of the jet stream just stalling out over the area for a while. This basically means less rain for Texas if the 12z verifies.

[bubba hotep]

The significant changes were beyond D7 on the operational run. Run-to-run changes at that range are to be expected. The EPS trended slightly towards the Op beyond D7.