STORM2K

starsfan65 wrote:

Brent wrote:never ceases to amaze me how the GFS can totally lose cold air...

gonna be even warmer on Thanksgiving than the 18z. If we get much warmer we can go for a record high

How can they lose the cold air so quickly?

slight difference in the pattern makes all the difference

takes a perfect pattern here to get snow/ice here or brutal cold as it is. Warmth is just so much easier to achieve.

Brent wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:

Brent wrote:never ceases to amaze me how the GFS can totally lose cold air...

gonna be even warmer on Thanksgiving than the 18z. If we get much warmer we can go for a record high

How can they lose the cold air so quickly?

slight difference in the pattern makes all the difference

takes a perfect pattern here to get snow/ice here or brutal cold as it is. Warmth is just so much easier to achieve.

We aren't get any cold weather on Thanksgiving?

starsfan65 wrote:

Brent wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:How can they lose the cold air so quickly?

slight difference in the pattern makes all the difference

takes a perfect pattern here to get snow/ice here or brutal cold as it is. Warmth is just so much easier to achieve.

We aren't get any cold weather on Thanksgiving?

I dunno if I ever saw any cold forecasts(the 12z had the cold after Thanksgiving)... 50s really aren't cold imo. 60s are average. Hope for upper 50s maybe.

Brent wrote:

starsfan65 wrote:

Brent wrote:
slight difference in the pattern makes all the difference

takes a perfect pattern here to get snow/ice here or brutal cold as it is. Warmth is just so much easier to achieve.

We aren't get any cold weather on Thanksgiving?

I dunno if I ever saw any cold forecasts(the 12z had the cold after Thanksgiving)... 50s really aren't cold imo. 60s are average. Hope for upper 50s maybe.

The local stations are still predicting 50's for Thanksgiving.

Euro lost the rain event before Thanksgiving

but has highs in the mid 50s on Thanksgiving. GFS is in the mid/upper 70s.

3 years ago we had snow on this day. That was followed up with temps in the teens. All tanks to recurving Nuri.

Ralph's Weather wrote:3 years ago we had snow on this day. That was followed up with temps in the teens. All tanks to recurving Nuri.

I miss Nuri.

All of the forecasts that ive seen show seasonal average temps for Thanksgiving. Not cold, but also not hot. Ill take it.

Yukon Cornelius wrote:All of the forecasts that ive seen show seasonal average temps for Thanksgiving. Not cold, but also not hot. Ill take it.

It all depends on upper movement of the shortwave. This seems to be the problem for them as they are not working out the trajectory of this system. It's caused some runs from near record warmth, to cold, to rainy, to bone dry. So that about covers all bases .

Still past 5 days out.. .be patient..

For the month of November we have climbed up to +5.4 for the monthly average. Models are all over the place as Ntxw stated, nothing is concrete as far next week goes, but I will take normal temps over above any day of the week.

As much as I don't want to mention this, I am noticing a pattern in the weather (since the Harvey rains) that would suggest drought is developing across the region. I hope I'm wrong.

Starts with abnormal dryness after a wet spell for a couple weeks, then periodic light rain, followed by dry cold fronts. Not really noticeable in the Fall and Winter when it's cold. Then the warmth of Spring hits, and the rain is still sparse. Is the PDO still warm?

Thank you La Nina!


000
FXUS64 KEWX 161028
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
428 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Isolated to scattered showers are slowly increasing in coverage as
Gulf moisture converges over South Central TX. Models depict an
uptick in isentropic lift later this morning as 850 mb winds
increase from the SW. Later today, surface winds veer to southerly as
700 mb ridging sharpens over Central TX. Spotty rainfall amounts of
1/4 to 1/2 inch are possible from this slow moving shower activity,
with areal coverage suffering from this detail as well.

Southerly winds increase tonight as a polar trough approaches the
Rockies. This maintains the humid air and a with a few sprinkles and
some light fog possible at daybreak Friday. By midday Friday 850 mb
winds turn more SWly and lead to a shrinking moist layer with dry air
working down from aloft to break up the low clouds. This should set
up the warmest day of the week with highs possibly reaching the 80s
area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Friday night should see patches of low clouds and a few patches of
fog toward daybreak, but with less moisture, the prefrontal
environment looks poor for rain or drizzle potential. The cold front
should arrive into at least the Hill Country in time to impact min
temps slightly, but looks to mix out in the daytime to have a smaller
impact on daytime temps over southern counties. The influx of much
drier air could lead to elevated fire weather conditions over the
higher terrain to the NW, but recent fuel dryness and fire danger
assessments would suggest a localized concern at best. Winds
shouldn`t decouple much Saturday night so the typical hill-to-valley
min temp contrasts shouldn`t develop until the following night.
Cooler than normal max temps will make it through Monday, with near
normal temps to be restored by Tuesday.

Medium range models have had some difficulty in the handling of the
next progressive flow disturbance that swings SE through the Central
US Tuesday. Blended guidances show a fair amount of rain chances that
run from Monday through Wednesday. Favor the drier solutions and will
downplay rainfall amounts to be very light, as the deterministic
models are trending drier, which fits in with the NCEP 8-14 day
outlook from yesterday.

CaptinCrunch wrote:For the month of November we have climbed up to +5.4 for the monthly average. Models are all over the place as Ntxw stated, nothing is concrete as far next week goes, but I will take normal temps over above any day of the week.

Perhaps I've been seduce by the Heat Miser, but from Nov-Mar, I say to heck with normal temps. I much prefer well below normal, pipe-busting snow-flying cold, but if we're not going to get that, then give me well above normal temps, because well above normal temps in Nov-Mar is really quite pleasant, short sleeves weather for me.

Are we going to rain on Thanksgiving or not?

So wait, I’m confused.....did we lose that possibility for snow after thanksgiving?!?! Is there any possibility the models could flip back to snow/sleet?

The coldest low on the 12z gfs is a pathetic 48 degrees

The 12z Euro has low temps in the low 40s this weekend and then highs mid/upper 60s on Thanksgiving. Its gone warmer.

Brent wrote:The coldest on the 12z gfs is a pathetic 48 degrees

The 12z Euro has temps in the low 40s this weekend and then 60s on Thanksgiving

Is that the coldest "High" or coldest "Low"? if high then I'll take it, if Low then toss the run as it's doesn't count...lol

CaptinCrunch wrote:For the month of November we have climbed up to +5.4 for the monthly average. Models are all over the place as Ntxw stated, nothing is concrete as far next week goes, but I will take normal temps over above any day of the week.

Its been really hard to overcome these fast above normal starts. DFW is outnumbering cool months with warm months 12:1 since 2015. That is an unfathomable number. And we thought the warmer months in the 2000s 2:1 was wicked, small compared to now.

Ntxw wrote:

CaptinCrunch wrote:For the month of November we have climbed up to +5.4 for the monthly average. Models are all over the place as Ntxw stated, nothing is concrete as far next week goes, but I will take normal temps over above any day of the week.

Its been really hard to overcome these fast above normal starts. DFW is outnumbering cool months with warm months 12:1 since 2015. That is an unfathomable number. And we thought the warmer months in the 2000s 2:1 was wicked, small compared to now.

I can't say I'm surprised after we hit 94 twice to begin the month. We'd have to get real cold to offset, not this average stuff. Even this week the lows have been near average highs...

Its just insane how easy it has been to get warmth but getting real cold is like pulling teeth

Interesting blurb about snow cover's impact on winter: https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

Researchers are taking winter weather forecasting beyond El Niño by investigating the relationship between Siberian snow cover in fall months, and Northern Hemisphere climate variability during the winter. A forecast model has achieved on-target forecasts for major cities in the industrialized countries.