STORM2K

Any other models show that?

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Any other models show that?

Other mesoscale models are similar to that

NAM 3km


WRF-NMM (0z)


WRF-ARW2 (0z)


WRF-ARW (0z)

13z HRRR has the Bow Echo just South of I-40

13z HRRR has the Bow Echo just South of I-40

Cloudy and cool (55F) up here in the slight risk. Not expecting much in terms of severe from this event but we should get a nice line of storms tonight.

Weather Dude wrote:Cloudy and cool (55F) up here in the slight risk. Not expecting much in terms of severe from this event but we should get a nice line of storms tonight.

Same here except it's 60°F outside & somewhat humid . . . (Dew point of 49°F)

Iceresistance wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:Cloudy and cool (55F) up here in the slight risk. Not expecting much in terms of severe from this event but we should get a nice line of storms tonight.

Same here except it's 60°F outside & somewhat humid . . . (Dew point of 49°F)

You might get that nasty squall some of the models are showing

Weather Dude wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:Cloudy and cool (55F) up here in the slight risk. Not expecting much in terms of severe from this event but we should get a nice line of storms tonight.

Same here except it's 60°F outside & somewhat humid . . . (Dew point of 49°F)

You might get that nasty squall some of the models are showing

Yeah, the HRRR model has been EXTREMELY consistent on the Squall line that is a Bow Echo.

This is the one I'm worried about . . . Very sharp bow line . . .
I've estimated that the wind from the strongest point in the bow to be between 80-100 mph on the 12z Run

Enhanced risk extended into SW Oklahoma

30% HATCHED for Hail in SW Oklahoma

Mesoscale Discussion #405

Tomorrow's outlook upgraded to Enhanced, 10% Hatched area of Tornadoes in Southern Alabama & SE Georgia

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #98 for Central & Northern Texas, & Southern Oklahoma . . .

Mesoscale Discussion #406, a Tornado Watch is possible in NW Texas, AND a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible in SW & Central Oklahoma



Mesoscale Discussion #407, Tornado Watch very possible for SE Texas & Western Louisiana

Tomorrow may become a moderate. Most likely in southeast Alabama.

Got some clearing here for a bit, which was unexpected. Clouds starting to move back in though. Should get some non severe storms this afternoon before the main event late tonight

Wow the CAMs uptrended big time for tomorrow. Probably explains the big 10 hatched tor area upgrade. Would not be surprised to see a moderate tomorrow if that trend continues.

12z Euro downtrended a bit for Tuesday, but also shows the system moving so slow that the eastern parts of the Day 5 slight risk actually won't get anything until Wednesday. That's what TSA mentioned in their AFD earlier today as well so it's starting to look like that might be a possible scenario.

Tornado Watch #99 for SE Texas & Western Louisiana . . .

Seems like the threat east of I-35 is being mitigated by a warm front that hasn't advanced as far as initially modeled in addition to the mess of convection in progress that was modeled. The tornado threat will likely increase into the evening but I think it would be moreso on the southern end of the convection... which is why the SPC added the 10% contour farther south and then east into LA.

Tornado Watch #100 for NW Texas, SW Panhandle Texas, & SW Oklahoma