MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0654 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL KY
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 68...
   
   VALID 121254Z - 121430Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND PERHAPS
   INTO CNTRL KY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   WW.
   
   AS OF 1245Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FAIRLY LONG LIVED
   INFLECTION OR BOWING PORTION OF ENE-WSW ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINE
   JUST S OF THE OH RIVER OVER WEBSTER...CRITTENDEN AND LIVINGSTON
   COUNTIES IN WRN KY MOVING APPROXIMATELY 270/40 KTS.  THIS BOWING
   FEATURE HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS EARLIER OVER FAR
   SRN IL.  MODIFICATION OF 12Z BNA SOUNDING FOR PROXIMITY INFLOW AIR
   MASS /I.E. BWG/ INDICATES A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WITH SBCAPES OF 800-1000 J/KG.  HOWEVER...THIS
   SOUNDING AND LOCAL VWPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RATHER STRONG LOW AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS REGION WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-350 M2/S2 AND
   0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KTS...RESPECTIVELY.
   
   GIVEN THAT AIR MASS SHOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE MORNING
   OWING TO INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING...IT APPEARS THAT SOME POTENTIAL
   FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP INTO
   CNTRL KY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...
   
   36708808 37178841 37818802 38188688 37788552 37388491
   36868526 36628670

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0709 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN KS / SERN NEB / NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121309Z - 121445Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF WW 69
   BY 14Z...AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
   
   AS OF 13Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
   TSTMS OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF KS MOVING 215/40 KTS.  SEVERAL
   REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE
   PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  WHILE 12Z TOP SOUNDING INDICATED ONLY A
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E. MUCAPES OF 500-700 J/KG/ FOR A
   PARCEL BASED AROUND 850 MB...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
   ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME.
   
   THEREFORE...EXPECT THESE ELEVATED STORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE AND/OR
   DEVELOP NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF SERN NEB AND PERHAPS NWRN MO THIS
   MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
   
   39659906 40279930 40659879 40749654 40619512 40249436
   39309387 38789414 38769494 38839513 39589510 39639732

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0254
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1050 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 121650Z - 122115Z
   
   SNOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE/DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SD...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST MN...THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   HEAVIEST BANDS.
   
   WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN CO AND LEADING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PER WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY...EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER JET
   AND ONGOING WAA REGIME CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UVVS ACROSS SD.
   SIMILAR TO TRENDS ALREADY OBSERVED IN VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA ACROSS
   SOUTH CENTRAL SD...STRONG MID LEVEL /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL
   FORCING IN ADDITION TO MODEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE
   WSW-ENE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS BANDING
   TENDENCY AND STRONG UVVS COINCIDENT WITH A DEEPLY SATURATED
   DENDRITIC LAYER WILL PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 IN/HR SNOW RATES.
   TRENDS/SHORT TERM WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
   LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SD GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
   NORTH OF I-90...AND INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR...
   
   44640284 44930081 45449797 45439609 44519587 44259620
   43549785 43190036 43140140 43230230

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MO/CENTRAL IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72...
   
   VALID 121717Z - 121845Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72 CONTINUES UNTIL 21Z FOR NORTHERN MO
   INTO WEST CENTRAL IL. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL
   MAY BE NEEDED SOON.
   
   ONGOING SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS WW 72...WITH EASTERN EXTENT
   HIGHLIGHTED BY SUPERCELL WITH TORNADIC HISTORY ONGOING ACROSS
   MONROE/SHELBY COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST MO AS OF 1715Z. THIS ACTIVITY
   APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG SECONDARY/NORTHERN WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
   DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MO INTO CENTRAL IL. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES WOULD INITIALLY APPEAR HOSTILE TO SURFACE BASED
   CONVECTION...ORGANIZATION OF ONGOING STORM/S AND MODEST DOWNSTREAM
   HEATING/INFLUX OF PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY REQUIRE AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE SOON INTO CENTRAL IL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...
   
   40429338 40779012 40768822 39738789 39048808 38839071
   38899240 38979297 39409332

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...ERN OK...SW MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121729Z - 121930Z
   
   SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE FROM
   ERN KS TO CNTRL OK. DAMAGING TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS INITIATE AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE
   REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRYLINE ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
   FROM SCNTRL KS TO SOUTHWEST OK. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE
   ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.
   THE CAPPING INVERSION IS VERY WEAK AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AS
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AS A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX NOSES
   INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO THE
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL PROFILERS WILL CREATE AN
   ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. LONG TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP
   AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS ERN OK AND ERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH
   WIND DAMAGE ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   34439643 34679715 35169733 35459726 36429707 37439711
   38359715 38599644 38669508 38269445 36769432 35189450
   34489487 34449552

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0257
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121810Z - 121945Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
   SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IA...WITH PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL. WILL
   MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONGOING AT MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
   MO...WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
   WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IA THROUGH EARLY
   AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WELL NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS
   MO...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/WARM CONVEYOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
   AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE AIRMASS NORTHWARD ABOVE A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
   STRONG CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   750-1000 J/KG MUCAPE WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...OAX...
   
   40669370 40769555 41369566 42109339 41869158 40789129

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...SRN IL...SRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121902Z - 122030Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS THE REGION. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MOST
   LIKELY THREATS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
   WITHIN 1 TO 2 HOURS.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   ORIENTED WSW TO ENE ACROSS SRN IL INTO CNTRL IND. A LINE OF MORNING
   STORMS FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVED SWD INTO WRN KY SPREADING
   A COLD POOL ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
   CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD
   ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING THE INSTABILITY
   AND ALLOWING NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE. IF STORMS INITIATE...88D
   VWPS SUGGEST ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS IN PLACE FOR ORGANIZED
   MULTICELLS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...
   
   38448671 38278570 37898542 37408544 37068568 37058585
   36988693 37018723 37198866 37438891 37798899 38128886
   38378866 38538816

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73...
   
   VALID 121929Z - 122100Z
   
   PDS TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
   THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN KS/WESTERN
   MO...INCLUDING THE KC METRO AREA.
   
   SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE WESTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 73
   ACROSS EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS /ALREADY
   POTENTIALLY TORNADIC/ CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MOVE
   ENE...ALONG A OTTAWA-CHANUTE-INDEPENDENCE CORRIDOR AS OF 1930Z.
   SURFACE MESOANALYSIS/VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT WARM FRONT
   STEADILY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/KC METRO AREA AND
   CENTRAL MO.
   
   ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AMBIENT WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED
   BY A RATHER FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY/VERTICAL
   SHEAR FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT...
   REFERENCE 18Z SPRINGFIELD MO OBSERVED RAOB. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
   PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL/POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM FROM FAR EASTERN KS INTO
   WESTERN MO...INCLUDING THE GREATER KANSAS CITY METRO AREA SOUTHWARD
   TO THE JOPLIN VICINITY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   38559621 39889540 39699145 37729061 37219446 37239599
   37739631

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0260
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHERN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122033Z - 122200Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP INTO NORTHERN IL OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS...WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL CONTINUE TO
   MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH FROM SOUTHERN IA INTO NORTHERN IL.
   
   STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS-- WITH PRIOR HISTORY OF HAIL AND
   STRONG WINDS -- CONTINUES TO MOVE ENE ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA /SOUTHWEST
   OF THE QUAD CITIES/ AS OF 2030Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO
   RECENTLY OCCURRED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
   REMAINS COOL/WELL STABILIZED ACROSS NORTHERN IL NORTH OF WARM
   FRONT...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
   ADVECT TOWARD THE REGION...WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY SUPPORTING HAIL POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
   TRENDS...BUT A GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST LATER THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...
   
   40849186 41329210 42139125 42158906 42128867 42028841
   41538826 41158833 40948961 40799097

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73...
   
   VALID 122102Z - 122230Z
   
   PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS TORNADO WATCH #73 CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
   KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL THROUGH 04Z...WITH PRIMARY
   THREAT FOR TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL MO
   AT MID AFTERNOON.
   
   PRONOUNCED/DISTINCT SUPERCELLS ONGOING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE KC
   METRO AREA AT THIS TIME...FROM RAY COUNTY MO TO BATES/HENRY COUNTIES
   MO AT 21Z. MESOANALYSIS/SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY WARM
   FRONT STEADILY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND NORTH
   CENTRAL MO. AS IT DOES...NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
   WARM FRONT IN MO REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
   STORMS...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL.
   AN ENHANCED/PROLONGED TORNADIC THREAT MAY EXIST IN VICINITY OF THIS
   WEST-EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT -- LOCATED FROM THE KC METRO AREA TO
   NEAR COLUMBIA MO AT 21Z. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
   LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE IN VICINITY OF AGITATED
   CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   37159616 39199552 40199392 40329135 39768973 38758950
   38208980 37629123 37239374

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR AND FAR NE TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 74...
   
   VALID 122138Z - 122345Z
   
   SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS ERN OK
   INTO WRN AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIATION OF ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN FAR NE TX BY EARLY EVENING. VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION
   WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 74 ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS CNTRL
   OK INTO NCNTRL TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE
   WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS UPON INITIATION. MODERATE
   CUMULUS IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OKC
   METRO WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE CAPPING INVERSION GONE
   ACROSS ECNTRL OK. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
   ALONG THE DRYLINE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS NEWD AHEAD OF A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...RAPID SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. THE MOST LIKELY AREA
   FOR INITIATION WOULD BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE OKC METRO AREA
   WHERE THE CUMULUS FIELD APPEARS A BIT AGITATED. ADDITIONAL STORMS
   SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO FAR NE TX AS THE CAP WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE
   RED RIVER BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COMBINED
   WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL MAKE TORNADOES LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER
   SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   36679381 35949367 34779403 33689445 33039526 32999592
   33089650 33309730 34049729 35079700 36379655 36869611
   36979507 36789427

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0263
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0422 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHERN IL INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122222Z - 122315Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT TO STEADILY INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
   THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA/NORTHERN IL INTO NORTHWEST
   INDIANA...A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY SOON.
   
   AIRMASS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE REGION
   ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MO/IL. SEVERE
   THREAT LIKELY TO INCREASE STEADILY INTO THE EVENING...WITH INITIAL
   PRIMARY POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND AN INCREASING
   TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...
   
   41819210 42238989 42078826 41538670 41098686 40808868
   40779028 40689215 41119260

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0264
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73...
   
   VALID 122306Z - 130030Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR MCD GRAPHIC
   
   TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z FROM FAR EASTERN KS INTO
   WESTERN/CENTRAL IL. ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE
   TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO
   INTO WEST CENTRAL IL /POTENTIALLY NEAR THE ST LOUIS METRO/ EARLY
   THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
   ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SOUTHEAST KS.
   
   THERE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
   TORNADOES/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL
   IL THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z...POTENTIALLY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE ST
   LOUIS METRO AREA. SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC HISTORY ARE CURRENTLY
   MOVING ENE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF I-70 NEAR COLUMBIA MO. THESE STORMS
   ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RIDE THE ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED
   BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL AS DELINEATED VIA
   SURFACE MESOANALYSIS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE STORMS SHOULD
   REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 0030Z.
   
   FURTHER WEST...INCREASING STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LEADING TO A RENEWED THREAT
   FOR TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING INTO WESTERN MO. CU FIELD
   REMAINS AGGRESSIVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CINH PER
   ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   39249531 40299349 40479114 40388920 39868850 38828839
   38138924 37789185 37349429 37439548 37919569

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0554 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MI/FAR NORTHWEST
   OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122354Z - 130130Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
   ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST LOWER MI AND FAR
   NORTHWEST OH. WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
   IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. INITIAL PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   STRONG/SEVERE STORM IN WILL COUNTY IL AS OF 2345Z SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA IN VICINITY OF SUBTLE/REMNANT
   BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING WEST-EAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL INTO
   NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALSO ANTICIPATED
   THROUGH THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS SHOW A RECENT WEAKENING
   TREND AND SURFACE BASED/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL EARLY THIS
   EVENING...AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHWESTLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
   INTO THE AREA WILL SUPPORT AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME
   AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TONIGHT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...
   
   41538707 42358615 42438498 41808458 40938499 40858508
   40798576 40818654 41078708

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0266
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0621 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL AND NERN OK THROUGH SRN MO AND NRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 74...
   
   VALID 130021Z - 130215Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF INITIATING ALONG THE DRYLINE
   FROM E CNTRL THROUGH NERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
   GENERALLY NEWD DURING THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SHORT TERM
   INITIATION FARTHER EAST INTO NRN AR AND SRN MO IS LESS CERTAIN.
   HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING FATHER W WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THIS
   REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   EARLY THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN KS
   SWD THROUGH E CNTRL OK AND INTO N CNTRL TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS
   WARM SECTOR E OF THE DRYLINE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND IS ONLY
   WEAKLY CAPPED. TOWERING CUMULUS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN VICINITY OF
   THE DRYLINE FROM JUST E OF OKC INTO SERN KS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   ALREADY DEVELOPING. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH
   KS AND OK THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
   SRN PLAINS WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE. THE STRENGTHENING
   LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS ERN OK
   INTO MO AND AR RESULTING IN KINEMATIC FIELDS INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE
   OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...
   
   35179707 36649633 36909505 36249427 35199572

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0267
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0628 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73...
   
   VALID 130028Z - 130200Z
   
   PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. AN
   ENHANCED TORNADO/VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN WITH SUPERCELLS
   MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
   KS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO WESTERN MO THIS EVENING.
   
   IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC HISTORY ARE CROSSING THE
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM EAST CENTRAL MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL AT THIS
   TIME...ROUGHLY 45 MILES NNW OF STL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/NORTH OF WARM
   FRONT FROM CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL. NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT
   REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND
   VERY LARGE HAIL IN ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY/STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH
   ENVIRONMENT. THESE SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
   PITTSFIELD/JACKSONVILLE IL AREAS BY 0100-0130Z...AND POTENTIALLY THE
   SPRINGFIELD/TAYLORVILLE IL VICINITIES THEREAFTER.
   
   FURTHER WEST...SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE
   ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS FROM NEAR THE KC METRO AREA SSW TO NEAR
   COFFEYVILLE KS. OBSERVED 00Z SPRINGFIELD MO RAOB CONTINUES TO SAMPLE
   A WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT THAT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/TORNADIC POTENTIAL. AS DEVELOPMENT
   CONTINUES TO OCCUR THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN MO...THERE
   IS A POSSIBILITY FOR AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT AS STORMS INTERACT
   WITH MODIFYING WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST
   CENTRAL MO AND/OR WARM FRONT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   39659471 40399304 40408963 39208904 38018954 37279289
   37139443 37439533

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0268
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0715 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHERN
   WI
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 75...
   
   VALID 130115Z - 130245Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH 75 CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   THREAT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EASTERN
   IA/NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHWEST INDIANA.
   
   A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON FROM SOUTH
   CENTRAL IA INTO FAR NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI.
   
   AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE NORTH OF
   DOUBLE SURFACE WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONES FROM MO INTO
   CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL IL. THIS DESTABILIZATION TREND IS WELL SAMPLED
   BY 00Z RAOBS FROM DAVENPORT IA/LINCOLN IL...WITH VERY STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FURTHER AIDED
   REMAINDER OF THE EVENING BY TENDENCY FOR BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SHIFT
   NORTH ACROSS MO/IL AHEAD OF APPROACHING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
   INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY
   FOR LAGE HAIL ACROSS WW 75...A STEADILY INCREASING THREAT FOR
   TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST IA ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
   IL. PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHERN WI WILL BE LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
   
   42479194 43289008 42938836 41218739 40658818 40558953
   40639096 40909268 41559285

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0269
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/MUCH OF MO/CENTRAL IL INTO WESTERN
   INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73...
   
   VALID 130200Z - 130330Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION
   WITH STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL QUICKLY INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL IL
   NEAR THE SPRINGFIELD/LINCOLN/DECATUR AREAS...AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY
   NEAR THE CHAMPAIGN VICINITY. FURTHER WEST...A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
   SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO QUICKLY INCREASING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
   WESTERN/CENTRAL MO.
   
   AN ADDITIONAL AND/OR REPLACEMENT WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN IL/WESTERN INDIANA.
   
   SUPERCELL CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL NEARING SPRINGFIELD IL
   COULD BREACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 73 AS EARLY AS
   03Z...THUS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE
   ACROSS EASTERN IL/WESTERN INDIANA. THIS SUPERCELL...WITH A HISTORY
   OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...WITH CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENE IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. THE
   00Z LINCOLN IL SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   -- 300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH -- AND BAROCLINICITY IN PLACE NEAR WARM
   FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL.
   
   FURTHER WEST...BROKEN STRING OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO
   ERUPT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MO INTO EXTREME SW MO AHEAD OF DRYLINE/COLD
   FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
   WESTERN/CENTRAL MO TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...PERHAPS
   ENHANCED BY CENTRAL MO WARM FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
   PREVIOUS CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
   LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
   POTENTIALLY EVOLVING/INCREASING LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
   
   40069380 40589139 40758886 40858636 39498617 38818722
   38038953 37429106 37289322 37179410 37259490 38409486

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0845 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL OK THROUGH N CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 130245Z - 130515Z
   
   S CNTRL OK THROUGH N CNTRL TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
   INITIATION...MAINLY AFTER 04Z. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY. IF DATA BEGINS TO
   SUGGEST INITIATION IS IMMINENT...A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
   
   THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NERN OK JUST SW TO E OF OKLAHOMA
   CITY AND FARTHER SW INTO W CNTRL TX. A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM
   ERN KS SWWD THROUGH W CNTRL OK INTO NWRN TX. THIS FRONT WILL
   CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD AS A STRONG MID LEVEL JET EJECT NEWD THROUGH
   KS AND OK. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SHOULD INCREASE AS THE
   PACIFIC FRONT CONTINUES EAST AND INTERCEPTS THE DRYLINE. INITIAL
   DEVELOPMENT MAY BE OVER PARTS OF S CNTRL OK THEN ACTIVITY MAY
   SUBSEQUENTLY BUILD SWD INTO TX.  THE ATMOSPHERE E OF THE DRYLINE
   REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR IN PLACE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED STORMS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   34129794 34769730 34699567 33439636 31889768 31849880
   33119846

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0271
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0913 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK AND NWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 74...
   
   VALID 130313Z - 130415Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH 074 WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF ERN OK AND
   WRN AR.
   
   SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY OVER NERN OK WILL SPREAD INTO PARTS OF EXTREME
   NWRN AR BY 04Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER
   WEST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE PACIFIC FRONT MERGES WITH
   THE DRYLINE. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH VERY
   STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/13/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...
   
   36919169 35399326 35159661 36329632 36959556