Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

The rainy season may have kicked off a month or so earlier for most folks in Florida(especially the peninsula), but for places like where I live in SE Florida I've received very little rainfall over the past several weeks at least. The grass in this area is looking brown and somewhat dried up looking. The area lakes and ponds are really showing that we've received little rainfall especially. Hopefully early this week we can make up for this lack of rain, what are your thoughts for my area in terms of rainfall potential northjaxpro?

[northjaxpro]

StormExpert, a frontal boundary will move south before stalling out across South Florida on Tuesday. I think rain chances will increase significantly down in your region by mid-week. The NAO is going briefly negative in the short term, so actually the Jax area will get a break from the heat and humidity for much of this week and the northern peninsula when the front clears this region and dry us out. Actually looking at pleasant weather with max temps around 80 and mins possibly getting into the upper 50s across inland North Florida middle of this week. That is a nice reprieve from the heat for sure which I am looking forward to enjoying.

[psyclone]

non severe squall line is making steady progress toward west central florida this afternoon...at a rate that would bring it onshore before sunset from the bay area north. SPC has extended slight risk to include the northern and central peninsula for tomorrow..hopefully coastal areas can cash in on rainfall which, up till now, has mostly targeted inland locations.

[northjaxpro]

Strong thunderstorms occuring across eastern and southern Jax metro area currently with the East Coast seabreeze moving inland. There is another squall line moving in from the west from the Suwannee River Valley which will move in the Jax metro area within the next 90 minutes or so.

[northjaxpro]

Well, the atmosphere quickly has stabilized during the past hour as the seabreeze-induced storms that developed around 5 p.m. and blew through the Jax area has bought about this change. The squall line that was approaching this area along the I-10 corridor has really weakened, which is great news as this will likely end any severe weather threat here hopefully for the rest of this evening.

[gatorcane]

Today the weather looked more spring-like across South Florida with strong S to SE winds (downright windy at times) and lots of subsidence, squall line intruding into the West coast of Florida, had the feeling a frontal system was approaching the state, a reminder we are only in mid-April after all. Certainly was hot though.

[psyclone]

severe thunderstorm watch covers the eastern Tallahassee CWA, all of the JAX CWA and the northern portion of the Tampa bay CWA. Squall line extends out into the gulf from the big bend region. Long range radar, lightning data and sat images indicate the squall line poised to come ashore south of the watch area is spicy so the tampa bay/Sarasota region can expect a hefty line of storms should they hold together.

[psyclone]

New mesoscale discussion is bullish on svr potential for east central fl down toward palm beach..60% chance of watch issuance.

[gatorcane]

things look to be setting up for a very active day of convection over South Florida. Here in Boca Raton, there is thunder already beginning.

[TheStormExpert]

Tornado Warning already in Miami/Dade County for North Miami.



Yeah it looks like a active afternoon/evening may be setting up for South Florida, of course there is still a chance the expected numerous showers and storms foretasted does not pan out fully but we will have to wait and see.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah things may very well be getting ready to pop just by looking at these radar/satellite loops.

[AdamFirst]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 87
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-011-061-069-085-086-093-095-097-099-111-117-127-202300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0087.150420T1705Z-150420T2300Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD BROWARD INDIAN RIVER
LAKE MARTIN MIAMI-DADE
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH SEMINOLE ST. LUCIE
VOLUSIA

[TheStormExpert]

It's really getting going out there now. Just had a decently strong thunderstorm move through with persistent gusty winds, frequent lightning, and much needed rain(at least a 1/2 of inch).

[HURRICANELONNY]

They always get me hyped up and by the time storms come they putter out down here. I miss the good old fashion storms I used to get up north. 4/22


Looks like the potential for big changes beginning early next
week as GFS and European model (ecmwf) depict a major storm system developing over
the Southern Plains and tracks it east across the Gulf
Coast/southeast United States through mid-week. If this trend
holds, weather could get quite active across South Florida Tuesday
or Wednesday of next week. Obviously there's a lot of time to look
at this over the next few days.

[AdamFirst]

NWS Miami discussion

HOWEVER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EASILY BE FORCED BACK SOUTH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THROUGH TEXAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS
SOLUTION DOES HAVE SUPPORT AMONG THE ENSEMBLES, GEFS/NAEFS. H5
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF -3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH
THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD TAKE
NOTICE. THIS VERY WELL COULD CARVE OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DEEP
TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WHICH COULD SEND A
FORMIDABLE COLD FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WED OR THURS. STILL
MANY DAYS AWAY, BUT THIS COULD BE AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER.

[Bocadude85]

Anyone know what the models are showing for next Saturday May 2nd? I am getting married and we are having a outdoor ceremony/reception that evening. Im pulling my hair out hoping that the active weather referenced above is out of the picture by then.

[chaser1]

Anyone know what the models are showing for next Saturday May 2nd? I am getting married and we are having a outdoor ceremony/reception that evening. Im pulling my hair out hoping that the active weather referenced above is out of the picture by then.

Congrats on your getting married next week!

Well, I doubt you'll get many to bite on your question for several reasons. As we all know, model verification that far out lies somewhere between "bad" and "sucks", LOL. To make matters worse, we're practically talking about a localized weather micro-cast bust that could mean storms or sunshine... such as you may well be dealing with today down there (some local heavy rains & storms for coastal area's from Miami north near you and up to Stuart, yet Vero Beach to the north or Homestead to the south, may escape from getting any). Saying all that and assuming that models will probably change a good deal during the next 4-8 days, I'll take a stab at it. Simply based on a strong increasingly SSW oriented 200mb jet flow projected to lie over S. Florida, in combination with a few continuing West to SW'erly ripples of energy in the 500mb level that are projected to perhaps remain over extreme S. Florida in the wake of the departing deep low pressure area "then" progged to be near Nova Scotia.... may well be a set up where most of Central Florida may well be dry, yet possibly keeping extreme S. Florida & the Keys under a blanket of mid to upper level clouds with a potential set up for precip. Then throw in the surface winds, and a NE Seabreeze might be a trigger for significant rain from the N. Keys, into Dade, Broward, & Palm Beaches. Climatology would suggest that to be a pretty stupid forecast, LOL. I mean, c'mon... end of April - 1st week in May?? Should be dry! Just seems to me though, that we have a fairly pronounced pattern in place which may well make up for much of the state's recent rain deficits, during the next 10 days (especially with the threat of statewide severe weather next Tue.-Thurs).

Anyway, I'll be rooting for my forecast to be wrong (with a good chance it will be , but kinda how I see things for your Boca area at the moment. You know... cant ever hurt to have a contingency plan just in case. For what its worth..., you may want to reach out to Jaxpro (here in the forums). He strikes me to have a pretty keen eye for synoptic analysis, assuming such a set up were to occur. BEST OF LUCK!

[TheStormExpert]

Strong to even a few Severe Thunderstorms have been moving through South Florida this afternoon thanks in part to us being located on the warm side of a stationary frontal zone.

There was also a waterspout that formed over Lake-O and then touched down in Belle Glade as a Tornado at around 2:50pm this afternoon, thankfully there were no reports of injuries or damage according to local news.

[gatorcane]

Needless to say the rainy season is in full swing across the FL peninsula and much sooner than normal, at least if the GFS ends up verifying with the trough:

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[NDG]

I woke up to 77° this morning with a dewpoint of 75° Way to muggy for this time of the year, good thing there's some relief on the way of lower dewpoint and cooler nights.