Texas Fall-2015

[CaptinCrunch]

Things are looking good for a multi inch rain event across all of NTX, I'm going on a mix of both the GFS and EURO and calling for a 2-3" of rain by events end.

Halloween wet and cold???

FTW NWS AFD This AM

OCTOBER IS THIS REGION`S 2ND WETTEST MONTH...AND IT IS USUALLY
BECAUSE OF SETUPS LIKE THESE. THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYNOPTIC WESTERLIES PORTENDING THE ARRIVAL OF WINTER AND HIGH
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM SUMMERTIME IN THE TROPICS CAN
COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH...ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS A BUMP IN PRECIPITATION IN
THE AUTUMN...AN INCREASE IN FLASH FLOOD EVENT FREQUENCY IS MORE
MUTED. THIS IS LIKELY BECAUSE THE GROUND IS USUALLY DRIED OUT
FROM THE HOT AND DRY SUMMER MONTHS AND VEGETATION HAS YET TO
BECOME DORMANT. THUS WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DOES
EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CLIMATOLOGY AND OUR RECENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE SUGGESTING TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL WE AT LEAST GET IN RANGE OF SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE THAT CAN PINPOINT RAIN AMOUNTS AND THREAT AREAS WITH SOME
CONSISTENCY. FURTHERMORE...WHILE WE ARE FORECASTING 2-3 INCHES
AREAWIDE WITH THIS EVENT...THIS RAIN MAY FALL OVER A LONG ENOUGH
TIME RANGE TO KEEP THE FLOODING THREAT MANAGEABLE.

DRIER AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
PREVAILS.

[weatherdude1108]

Well, we've finally reached a dew point of 60 here in Heath, so return moisture is ramping up. A couple days of this will really help set the table for significant rains to fall this weekend.

I definitely noticed the moisture ramp up in the air today. Feels much better to the sinuses and airways, and helping out the firefighters in Smithville most importantly.

[weatherdude1108]

Did the site go down for a while earlier? I tried getting on several times and got an error message, until now.

[gboudx]

Did the site go down for a while earlier? I tried getting on several times and got an error message, until now.

Yeah, I was getting a 500 Internal Server Error as well. Initial terror wore off after about 15 mins, only to be replaced by the shakes. I'm good now.

[Ralph's Weather]

Here is a very detailed forecast of the upcoming winter: https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-201516/. Things are looking similar to 09/10 in many ways. Though this is a difficult forecast because there are no analogs with this extreme of a set of warm SST anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic.

[Ntxw]

The heaviest rainfall will likely fall Friday night through Saturday into Sunday. Reason being 20E (will probably be hurricane Patricia) will make landfall in SW Mexico and remnants will be drawn up into Texas by the ULL. That's when the heaviest convective rains will be. Stuff Thurs-Friday will probably 1-2 inches from the ULL.

[TheProfessor]

I know that the models are already showing some high rain totals occurring, but they do sometimes struggle with hurricanes that are re-curving into Mexico, it wouldn't surprise me if someone saw 15+ inches of rain when it's all said and done.

[Ntxw]

I know that the models are already showing some high rain totals occurring, but they do sometimes struggle with hurricanes that are re-curving into Mexico, it wouldn't surprise me if someone saw 15+ inches of rain when it's all said and done.

I wouldn't be surprised if someone did. If there was a stalled frontal boundary across the state I'd call for 15+ somewhere but since there isn't I'd stick to 10+ for someone out there. The lack of severe weather with this rain event tells you it's very tropical.

[JayDT]

The models have converged. There is a pretty good consensus and we are now within short to medium range. Most of the rain falls from Thursday through Saturday. Here are various model QPF output for different areas.

Euro

DFW- 7.7"
Austin-5.6"
Houston-5"
Texarkana- 5"

Most everybody receives about 2-4"

GFS (as of 6z)

DFW- 7.14"
Austin- 5.47"
Houston-2.18"
Texarkana-2.75"




Some may get a lot more, some may get less. it will be a slow soaking rain mostly though I would not be surprised if flash flood watches were posted as any kind of rainfall above 5" usually warrants. Heaviest amount likely occurs at the cross between 5h vorticity crossing the state with strong lift meets high surface moisture. Right now it is expected to be near the middle Texas coast and up the I-35 corridor.

Longer range it looks like typhoon champi is going to dislodge an arctic air mass towards the contiguous 48 around Halloween Semblance of cross polar flow

So is there really a chance for 7+ inches of rain here in the DFW area?

[Ntxw]

So is there really a chance for 7+ inches of rain here in the DFW area?

Possibility. 12z GFS has 6-8" of rain across DFW proper. An area just to the southwest with 10+

[Ntxw]

Don't be surprised if this becomes a major hurricane. I hope folks in Mexico are keeping a close eye.



Rick 2009 was in a similar area, similar time frame

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley's input. I hope he runs his Stat Method soon and posts the results.

Just so you know ... the American and European Model appear to be dancing the Texas Two Step and going very bullish on the forecast rainfall amounts. They think 4 to 10 inches is headed for the Metroplex again!

The Canadian Model is trying to be the Voice of Reason and only going for 1 to 4 inches.

But we are more than 24 hours away from the start of the rain, so I guess we will hold out before making any such bold predictions. But at least this provides further evidence that a 100% coverage is coming our way, and it will be generous rains for all. But there is such a thing as too generous, so stay tuned!

I like the sound of "only ... 1 to 4 inches".

[utpmg]

Hey TPB I think it was you who brought up the October 1972 similarities. Looking like it now with the last two weeks.

1972-1973 El Nino is the strongest El Nino of the 1970s. 1970s was mostly dominated by La Nina.

I recall that winter in Austin having more cancelled school due to freezing precip events than any other in my lifetime. We even cancelled final exams that year.

[Ntxw]

I like the sound of "only ... 1 to 4 inches".

The Canadian is a little southeast with the rain batches, dumps a foot of rain on southeastern counties.

His stat method will probably be something like 3-6". GFS and Euro are usually heavy weighted, though I think short therm mesoscale models he may weigh them stronger since they are superior at smaller features. I'm not sure his formula though.

[weatherdude1108]

Did the site go down for a while earlier? I tried getting on several times and got an error message, until now.

Yeah, I was getting a 500 Internal Server Error as well. Initial terror wore off after about 15 mins, only to be replaced by the shakes. I'm good now.

HAHA!

Me too. I thought I was in the twilight zone for a second. Glad everything is okay now.

[weatherdude1108]

A lot more busy on this site the last few hours. I wonder if something is going on (?).

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I like the sound of "only ... 1 to 4 inches".

The Canadian is a little southeast with the rain batches, dumps a foot of rain on southeastern counties.

His stat method will probably be something like 3-6". GFS and Euro are usually heavy weighted, though I think short therm mesoscale models he may weigh them stronger since they are superior at smaller features. I'm not sure his formula though.

1-4" and 3-6"...sounds like the width of some of the earth cracks I saw on the golf course on Sunday in some of those parts of the rough that don't get hit with sprinklers. It was downright dangerous.

[weatherdude1108]

I know we have to get through this first rain event first, but did anyone notice the 12Z GFS 500mb thickness maps??

It paints a tropical system at 330 to 384 hours traveling from Mexico to Texas. Going into November, but interesting! I apologize in advance if someone already posted about it. A lot going on here. Hard to keep up!



[img]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015102012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png/img]

[Brent]

Finally something to talk about besides analogs.

I've also been noticing the highs in the 60s next week...

[Ntxw]

It has another landfalling mexican hurricane, basically a repeat pattern but that is far far out range. Anything beyond 240 is educated guessing imo.

Other than that, Euro harping arctic (early season kind) blast for the conus east of the rockies next week



If verified high's heading towards Halloween would be in 50s and lows 30s/40s.