Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[ElectricStorm]

Tornado Watch #100 for NW Texas, SW Panhandle Texas, & SW Oklahoma

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/ww0100_radar.gif

This watch has got 90/70 hail probs which I believe is the highest so far this year...

[ElectricStorm]

Well the triple point came in clutch today. All the tors I've found pics of are very photogenic and appear to be over open fields only, which is great.

Storms should start to begin to grow upscale soon, so the wind threat should be about to pick up pretty soon. Gotta watch for some QLCS tors in both areas throughout the night.

[ElectricStorm]

Day 4 slight risk moved west as I expected, due to the slower system

[cheezyWXguy]

Day 4 slight risk moved west as I expected, due to the slower system

it’s slowed so much that it’s almost back to a favorable window for ntx, but on Wednesday on the gfs

[ElectricStorm]

Day 4 slight risk moved west as I expected, due to the slower system

it’s slowed so much that it’s almost back to a favorable window for ntx, but on Wednesday on the gfs

Yeah NWS Tulsa said Wednesday could end up being bigger for us over here. I've noticed that most of the time we get highlighted a week out, it ends up west of us.

[ElectricStorm]

Something I've noticed for us in NE OK and vicinity. Most of the well-advertised, big setups end up shifting west of here (like Tuesday). But the "surprise" setups are the ones that can really get dangerous for us. The ones where they don't look significant until just a few days out or even the day of in some cases (biggest one recently was 5/22/19). Wednesday will need to be watched for one of these kinds of setups...

[ElectricStorm]

Gotta watch Wednesday in SE OK/NE TX and maybe the NE OK/SE KS/NW AR/SW MO area. If the morning convection from whatever's left of Tuesday's event doesn't mess the atmosphere up too much, it could certainly end up being interesting. SREF already has a 45 sigtor contour, although if storm mode is linear that won't matter at all.

[Iceresistance]

The setup is mostly to the west Tuesday, but KFOR is showing a Squall Line Threat Wednesday & ANOTHER Potential outbreak Next Tuesday!





Is there a Tuesday Curse going on?

[ElectricStorm]

So I just found out on another forum that the SPC might be expanding their event archive past 2000. If you click on the first event (January 3, 2000), up in the top left it now has an option to go to the previous event, Nov. 30, 1999. Clicking on it just takes you to today, but it would be kinda neat of they added in some more years.

[Iceresistance]

15z SREF, +81 hours to Wednesday, April 28th

Most likely Linear, but this needs to be watched, especially if it's near Tulsa!

[ElectricStorm]

First HRRR run is in for Tuesday and...wow, there's hardly anything at all, besides a slop-fest of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Now I realize it's the 48hr HRRR but man I at least expected it to show some supercells. Far cry from the Day 7 slight risk lol

That being said Euro and RAP still are showing a decent event so we can't write it off yet

[ElectricStorm]

Slight risk expanded. Wasn't expecting an upgrade for me... interesting

[Brent]

Honestly I feel like flooding is gonna be the bigger story

[Iceresistance]

Honestly I feel like flooding is gonna be the bigger story

Yes, it's going to be a bigger story . . .

Tomorrow has a Marginal chance for the Flooding


But Wednesday has higher chances for flooding, even though that the slight risk for flooding is kinda broad from Indiana to Central Texas . . .

[Iceresistance]

Wednesday is a Marginal risk, but it's rather broad . . .

[Iceresistance]

6z HRRR has 2 waves of strong/severe storms, mostly linear, but there can be embedded Supercells & QLCS (I call that Squall Line Tornadoes) that can spin up a tornado . . .

[ElectricStorm]

6z HRRR has 2 waves of strong/severe storms, mostly linear, but there can be embedded Supercells & QLCS (I call that Squall Line Tornadoes) that can spin up a tornado . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/06Z-20210426_HRRROKC_prec_radar-30-48-100-25.gif

That's a lot different than its run last night for sure. That is a lot of could cover though... We'll see what happens...

Anyway the MJO is still stuck in Phase 7, even though it was expected to already be in phase 8 by now. I'm wondering if that's a reason why tomorrow isn't going to be the major outbreak it looked like it could be last week. Not a single big day that I looked through a couple weeks ago occured in Phase 7 so it wouldn't surprise me if that's the reason why. It should be finally moving into Phase 8 in a few days, so the first couple weeks of May will probably be pretty interesting.

[Iceresistance]

6z HRRR has 2 waves of strong/severe storms, mostly linear, but there can be embedded Supercells & QLCS (I call that Squall Line Tornadoes) that can spin up a tornado . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/06Z-20210426_HRRROKC_prec_radar-30-48-100-25.gif

That's a lot different than its run last night for sure. That is a lot of could cover though... We'll see what happens...

Anyway the MJO is still stuck in Phase 7, even though it was expected to already be in phase 8 by now. I'm wondering if that's a reason why tomorrow isn't going to be the major outbreak it looked like it could be last week. Not a single big day that I looked through a couple weeks ago occured in Phase 7 so it wouldn't surprise me if that's the reason why. It should be finally moving into Phase 8 in a few days, so the first couple weeks of May will probably be pretty interesting.

You were saying about Phase 8 . . .

[Iceresistance]

This video is from Live Storms Media from the first Tornado in Texas . . .



Link: https://youtu.be/OWN2JrpYxsw

[ElectricStorm]

6z HRRR has 2 waves of strong/severe storms, mostly linear, but there can be embedded Supercells & QLCS (I call that Squall Line Tornadoes) that can spin up a tornado . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/06Z-20210426_HRRROKC_prec_radar-30-48-100-25.gif

That's a lot different than its run last night for sure. That is a lot of could cover though... We'll see what happens...

Anyway the MJO is still stuck in Phase 7, even though it was expected to already be in phase 8 by now. I'm wondering if that's a reason why tomorrow isn't going to be the major outbreak it looked like it could be last week. Not a single big day that I looked through a couple weeks ago occured in Phase 7 so it wouldn't surprise me if that's the reason why. It should be finally moving into Phase 8 in a few days, so the first couple weeks of May will probably be pretty interesting.

You were saying about Phase 8 . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/ensplume_small4c45d4fc5a32445d.gif

Welp I guess I saw that before it updated