Florida Weather

[chaser1]

It does look as if much of Florida will see some cooler temps advecting down the peninsula, but I have to question the idea that Central Florida will see any low temps in the 40's for the time being. It still looks to me as if the 500mb flow that is containing and directing any true colder air, is remaining largely zonal and still primarily being steered across the Northern tier states. I suppose thats not altogether uncommon though during an El Nino fall pattern. Time will tell whether these more significant cold outbreaks will actually usher in some true cold conditions through Florida, anytime soon. Right now, i'm beginning to consider that much of Florida might not see the "cooler" El Nino conditions... perhaps until even sometime in January.

[asd123]

Well this is disappointing, in cfla, coldest we got was upper 50s (north cfla leesburg,mount dora, etc) low 60s (central sections: Orlando, Clermont, etc.). The last front brought chilly air (upper 40s low 50s) to northern Florida only and then moved off to the east/ene instead of plunging to the sse. Real bummer with that last front, clfa had 850 mb temps of around 8C but lows in the low 60s thanks to a brisk deep ENE flow. I would expect mid 50s with those 850 mb temps.

I was getting excited that cfla would get a cooldown around Halloween, but the models kinda gave up on that.

Looking at the models, I am extremely disappointed!!! No real threat of a cooldown is expected deep into the 1st week of November. Cfla is expected to see highs in the low to mid 80s, and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. One exception would be around Halloween, where the once forecasted big cool down wimpered out to only mid 60s. Looking even further beyond, with unfavorable teleconnections and such, there is no real signal nor cooldown expected, just phantom cool downs, nothing real.

Regarding El Nino, here is the thing. This is not like 1997-1998, where the warmest anoms are in the far east. This would promote a ridge over se us. with warm air. This appears to be either a basin-wide or more central-based than east. warmest anoms are moving to the west. (glad to see nino 1 2 cooling off!). From the pro-mets, if the warmest anoms move to the west then that would promote a ridge in the west, bringing us colder air. In my opinion., if this Nino becomes more central based and 1 2 cool off more, then we could potentially see very cold periods this winter. AO due to Siberian snow cover and NAO are forecasted to be favorable for blocking. In fact if the Nino conditions described happen, then this would be the best year for cfla to see snow (subtrop jet, plus favorable nino anom positioning, plus blocking via AO and NAO)

northjaxpro, NDG, and others, please tell me what you think.

[NDG]

Exactly right, it will depend on how El Niño evolves and if NAO become really negative like 09/10 winter when many parts of central had some light frozen precipitation.
The last time I looked at the CFSv long range forecast it showed a mostly positive NAO regime through most of January with February the coldest for our region.

[SouthFloridian92]

The weather channel shows high temps around 85-90 for the next week. This is unacceptable.

[psyclone]

I think this weather is superb. it is a bit warm by late October standards but so what. An 88 or 90 degree in late October is nothing like similar temps in the Summer. We have much lower dewpoints, a far more tepid sun angle, shorter days/longer nights. This month has been much deserved compensation after a long and very wet Summer (at least in my part of the state). FWIW the CPCs 8-14 day outlook is showing normal temps so I'm confident a cool down is in the cards..

[chaser1]

ASD123, I would tend to agree with both your analysis regarding the appearance of the current El Nino vs. prior El Nino events as well as potential downstream teleconnection to future Florida cold outbreaks this year. Furthermore, I too would really prefer to enjoy either cold (or significant weather event conditions. Of course, I can totally appreciate how others may well feel differently.

[NDG]

CFSv2 keeps insisting that the NAO will continue to be mainly on a neutral to slight positive regime through January, warmer than average temps for the whole eastern US.
Then possible colder pattern for the SE US during February.
November will start at least average if not above average with both the NAO & AO mostly in the positive category while the PNA will go negative, good news for the US west coast, they need the rain bad.

[northjaxpro]

no doubt it will probably be wet of course with Nino ongoing for the peninsula

[NDG]

:uarrow: no doubt it will probably be wet of course with Nino ongoing for the peninsula

I am sure north FL will have a wet pattern most of winter, but I wonder for central and southern FL that when TX goes into a wet pattern the southern half of the FL Peninsula has gone to a drier pattern and when TX goes into a drier pattern then we go into a wet pattern. It will be interesting. In fact the long range GFS gives most of the Peninsula less than an inch of precip during the next 2 weeks.

[asd123]

NDG and others,

This is kinda disappointing, No cooldowns for cfla. Orlando has not seen colder than low 60s, and nothing colder than that is forecasted ( end of October into 1st week of November). I have lived here long enough and looked at past years' weather to extrapolate that we should have seen mid 50s by now and especially into the 1st week of November; This is ridiculous!!! The Nino anomalies moving westward (meaning we won't get flooded with warmth from a ridge); The Nino becoming more central-based. I heard N. Atlantic cold pool will promote a -NAO, pacific warmth +PNA, Siberian snowpack -AO. Give this why all the warmth, how long will I have to wait? I looked at all the models and there is zero signal toward any cooldown for cfla or the entire southeast for that matter.

[SouthFloridian92]

Yep. Sometimes I really hate living in Florida.

[chaser1]

I believe that tea leaves are pointing towards Florida having a near record warm November. Oh well, at least the Chamber of Commerce can smile about that one

[Ntxw]

NDG and others,

This is kinda disappointing, No cooldowns for cfla. Orlando has not seen colder than low 60s, and nothing colder than that is forecasted ( end of October into 1st week of November). I have lived here long enough and looked at past years' weather to extrapolate that we should have seen mid 50s by now and especially into the 1st week of November; This is ridiculous!!! The Nino anomalies moving westward (meaning we won't get flooded with warmth from a ridge); The Nino becoming more central-based. I heard N. Atlantic cold pool will promote a -NAO, pacific warmth +PNA, Siberian snowpack -AO. Give this why all the warmth, how long will I have to wait? I looked at all the models and there is zero signal toward any cooldown for cfla or the entire southeast for that matter.

Who said the El Nino is moving westward? i would not trust some sources that are biased to cold winters and claims every El Nino is modoki. It is not a west based, nor is it modoki. it is an EP El Nino. The nation has been flooded by warmth the past 2 months especially to the north and at times cooler anomalies to the south due to wet conditions and rains. This is your classic east El Nino weather pattern. Nothing beats verification.

[Hurricaneman]

NDG and others,

This is kinda disappointing, No cooldowns for cfla. Orlando has not seen colder than low 60s, and nothing colder than that is forecasted ( end of October into 1st week of November). I have lived here long enough and looked at past years' weather to extrapolate that we should have seen mid 50s by now and especially into the 1st week of November; This is ridiculous!!! The Nino anomalies moving westward (meaning we won't get flooded with warmth from a ridge); The Nino becoming more central-based. I heard N. Atlantic cold pool will promote a -NAO, pacific warmth +PNA, Siberian snowpack -AO. Give this why all the warmth, how long will I have to wait? I looked at all the models and there is zero signal toward any cooldown for cfla or the entire southeast for that matter.

Who said the El Nino is moving westward? i would not trust some sources that are biased to cold winters and claims every El Nino is modoki. It is not a west based, nor is it modoki. it is an EP El Nino. The nation has been flooded by warmth the past 2 months especially to the north and at times cooler anomalies to the south due to wet conditions and rains. This is your classic east El Nino weather pattern. Nothing beats verification.

I have a hard time believing the tropical tidbits site when it comes to SSTAs as the ENSO 1\2 is warmer than his site has. I also believe through early January temps will be above normal then maybe some cooler weather around mid January through until March and also expect a wet winter and spring

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[gatorcane]

so where is some cool air for Florida? Looking at the long-range GFS and ECMWF, there appears to be nothing for the foreseeable future. Usually by now we get a nice cold front that comes through South Florida that drops our temps and humidity substantially. Not so this year as summer tries to hang on.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, no end in sight for the unseasonable warmth. Last week the EURO and GFS initially latched onto a solution that bought down a cold shot into the CONUS, but has long since dropped that idea. The strong El Nino for now is bringing wet and warm pattern, as you would expect. It may be possible we could see this warmth all through November across the peninsula. Will have to see if we get any variation of a negative NAO at some juncture. But for the time being, the Chamber of Commerce folks have to be loving the unsessonable warmth lingering well into the Fall season for sure.

[StormingB81]

Where is my fall weather....lol

[NDG]

As long as the NAO & AO over at least the next 2 weeks stay mostly positive it will be mostly above average, because of El Nino it will be humid and warm at times making it feel like late summer, I love it

[northjaxpro]

What a difference a year makes. I touched on this in the First Freeze predictions thread in remembering how we had record cold here in Jax and nearly one of the earliest freezes here on record just about this time last year, Nov 1-2, 2014. We had that extreme anomaly with an extremely sharp upper trough across the Eastern CONUS, and an extremely deep cold core cut off Low which moved directly over the SE U.S. This bought record snow to South Carolina and record cold all the way down to West Palm Beach.

What a distant memory now. We will have unseasonable warmth right through the weekend and at least for the least 10 days and possibly more.

[FireRat]

I report I saw some patchy fog in western broward county while heading home at 2 AM. It is particularly low to.the ground and most dense near parks.

yeah no such thing as Fall down here this year, this must be the longest "summer" on record lol. I think we will get nothing until about Thanksgiving, just like most years when it finally cools off big time around turkey day...our real first day of "fall" in southeast FL. Will this El Nino winter be warm like 97-98, or very cold like 2009-10 and 1957-58? we'll see I guess, but sure am not liking this unseasonal warmth, just plain tired of it hehe.