Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

excerpt from NWS Miami discussion:

TYPICALLY, THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON
ARRIVES BETWEEN MID AND LATE NOVEMBER AND THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SIGN
OF THAT HAPPENING JUST YET. BUT, GOOD THINGS COME TO THOSE WHO WAIT
AND AFTER ALL IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[chaser1]

Obviously, there may easily be a several day cold outbreak where a temporary shift in the long wave pattern would appear conducive for a decent cold front to sweep Florida. Could happen in a couple weeks or so however I'm going to guess that here in Central Florida (Orlando area), we don't see 50's until the end of November. More importantly than any one significant cold front though, I beleive that this current El Nino is continuing to strengthen and will do so until the end of November or maybe even beginning of December. Either way, it seems to me that our Atlantic Hurricane season seems to react on a couple month delay following peak El Nino or shifts to La Nina, and I'm sort of wondering if the same will apply to whatever Winter affects Florida will eventually receive. I am seriously thinking that Florida's Fall/Winter/Spring weather will do an "about face" and with the greater El Nino impacts not occuring over most of the CONUS for another month or two, and perhaps even later here in Florida. I am seriously anticipating that nearly all Florida will remain above average in temps through most of this year, while not exhibiting any appreciable increase in precipitation for this same period of time either. Then, somewhere between final 2 weeks of December and the 1st week of January, I do expect very significant changes to occur, to include cooler, wetter, and stormier for much of the state to finally begin. I think this fall/winter will appear as a tale of two seasons, and they'll be quite different from the other.

[AdamFirst]

I'm pretty sure the predicted max temperature here is 85 for seven days straight.

I'm not minding this weather, honestly.

[psyclone]

the weather is great. warm but not hot with a tame sun angle. no a/c or heat needed is exactly the kind of break I love...plus letting fresh air into the house in the evening..just perfect.

[NDG]

those of us inland do have to put the a/c on, but it does not have to work as hard as during the summer, I don't mind at all, in the evenings I can enjoy my screened in patio but the mosquitos are out there unfortunately.

[psyclone]

:uarrow: those of us inland do have to put the a/c on, but it does not have to work as hard as during the summer, I don't mind at all, in the evenings I can enjoy my screened in patio but the mosquitos are out there unfortunately.

Oh the AC units are humming over here.. but I turn mine off before most people although it is downright warm and muggy tonight...still around 80 4 hours after sunset! I would like some slightly cooler and drier air...

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: those of us inland do have to put the a/c on, but it does not have to work as hard as during the summer, I don't mind at all, in the evenings I can enjoy my screened in patio but the mosquitos are out there unfortunately.

Oh the AC units are humming over here.. but I turn mine off before most people although it is downright warm and muggy tonight...still around 80 4 hours after sunset! I would like some slightly cooler and drier air...

The 12Z GFS suggested some relief in the extended range (days 9-10) but backed off on the 18Z and is similar now to the range ECMWF. Still no cool and dry air in Florida in sight as summer-like conditions roll on...

[TheStormExpert]

Yep this summer-like heat and humidity is just ridiculous! It's now November 1st and there are no signs of the slightest cool down for probably at least the next two weeks! Hopefully this is a precursor to maybe a cooler December/January/February or somewhere in between?

Snippet from the NWS Miami Discussion this morning.

TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. NAPLES TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 90F YESTERDAY
AND THEY COULD AGAIN TODAY...AND ACTUALLY IS FORECASTED. HIGHS
ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR SO SHY OF
RECORDS. WE COULD HAVE A FEW RECORD WARM MIN`S THIS WEEK EAST
COAST DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM PATTERN SETTING UP.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL NOTHING LIKE FALL.

[northjaxpro]

Set the all-time record maximum temperature for November today at the NWS Jax office with 89 degrees.

[NDG]

I wouldn't doubt if many broke warm minimum records this morning.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Maybe towards mid-month start cooling down looking at the AO/NAO. If the models hold. Which always seems to flip flop.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF shows the ridge over Florida, Caribbean, and SW Atlantic retreating some in about a week but it builds back in by days 9-10 in the long-range keeping the unseasonable warmth.

If you recall we had this blocking ridge setup during the quasi-rainy season that began across South Florida in mid April. Seems we have reverted back to that pattern.

Though not as hot as mid-summer, it certainly feel nothing like early November down here.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The ECMWF shows the ridge over Florida, Caribbean, and SW Atlantic retreating some in about a week but it builds back in by days 9-10 in the long-range keeping the unseasonable warmth.

If you recall we had this blocking ridge setup during the quasi-rainy season that began across South Florida in mid April. Seems we have reverted back to that pattern.

Though not as hot as mid-summer, it certainly feel nothing like early November down here.

Yup. But something tells me crap gonna hit the fan this winter with this el nino

[psyclone]

This morning's low at Tampa (KTPA) of 77 will set the all time record warm min for November assuming it holds through midnight. Records at this location are pre 1900 so this is impressive. The current dewpoint @ KTPA is 74 so it seems unlikely the temp will fall below 77 before midnight.

[psyclone]

it's also worth noting that the high one year ago was just 67...10 degrees COOLER than today's low.

[TheStormExpert]

FWIW the both the 12z and 18z GFS now show Florida's first big cold front coming through around November 13th-14th. I'm for sure not buying yet as it could easily drop it the next run or so. All I have to say is this heat and humidity is crazy for this time of year! Hard to believe that just one year ago we were talking a big cold snap ongoing at this time.

12z GFS Hr. 288


18z GFS Hr. 300

[psyclone]

I wouldn't buy the GFS idea unless the 8-14 day outlook reflected cooler temps up north. it doesn't...it shows warmth all over the east with the biggest anomalies up north...the source region for cold so I wouldn't bite on those yet..

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF day 9 with that pesky 500MB ridge anchored over Florida and the Gulf:

[northjaxpro]

No end with regards to the unseasonable warmth in sight. I think the ridge will hold firm at least for the next 10 days and possibly beyond. We may get through November with no cold intrusions for the peninsula. That is looking very probable right now.

[boca]

Doesnt this type of weather pattern that we are in currently in for Florida more typical of La nina. Im wondering why the weather isnt behaving like their is a strong EL NIno of cooler a wet rather than hot n dry.