STORM2K

The computer guidance is in good agreement that the warmest period so far this summer lies just ahead. Historic experience with similar patterns suggests that Richmond to Boston will likely see at least one 90° reading. Farther north, readings should soar well into the 80s as far north as Toronto and Burlington.

NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies (6/3/2008 0z 120 hours):


Composite 500 mb Height Anomalies for Past Similar Patterns:


Select Highest Temperatures during Past Periods for the Composite 500 mb Height Anomalies:

June 4-11, 1953:
Boston: 94°
Burlington: 85°
Montreal: 77° (25.0°C)
New York City: 93°
Ottawa: 76° (24.4°C)
Philadelphia: 94°
Richmond: 95°
Toronto: 83° (28.3°C)
Washington, DC (DCA): 93°

June 11-19, 1957:
Boston: 95°
Burlington: 91°
Montreal: 91° (32.8°C)
New York City: 96°
Ottawa: 91° (32.8°C)
Philadelphia: 100°
Richmond: 96°
Toronto: 93° (33.9°C)
Washington, DC (DCA): 97°

June 8-13, 1967:
Boston: 92°
Burlington: 87°
Montreal: 83° (28.3°C)
New York City: 92°
Ottawa: 84° (28.9°C)
Philadelphia: 90°
Richmond: 93°
Toronto: 83° (28.3°C)
Washington, DC (DCA): 92°

Given that the timing of the 1953 and 1957 warm spells coincide better with the upcoming period, I believe the temperatures from those years are likely more representative of what lies ahead.

As a result, I believe one will likely see Boston, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Washington, DC all see one or more high temperatures of 90° or above. Newark, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Washington, DC have a chance to see a reading of 95° or above. The highest temperature will likely reach or exceed 85° (29.4°C) in Toronto and Burlington. Both Montreal and Ottawa will likely see at least one reading of 80° (26.7°C) or above. Newark, Richmond and Washington, DC could experience a heat wave.

All said, a taste of summer lies just ahead.

Let me just say this much: IT'S ABOUT TIME!! I hope June just bakes and steams from this point on. After one of the coldest May's I've ever lived through, I want it badly. It's going to have to make up for all the cold since October somehow, the atmosphere behaves in such a way where it balances it.

The forecast looks good for southern Ontario after this Thursday, none of the highs dip below the average in most areas (if not all I would guess). It could reach over 31C this Friday in several areas around the region.

I'm going to be a pain here but what would the average June temperature be for the main places that are listed, as to be honest I've not really got a good idea of the typical climate out on the other side of the Atlantic!

i'm liking this forecast for the Toronto area region as well, with highs forecast to be near 32C 90F on Friday, that hasnt happened here since September 2007.

-justin-

I couldn't believe it when I just checked the local forecast for my area, and it predicted 98 and 99 degree highs on Thrusday and Friday. We've gone straight from convertible top up at night due to low temps to convertible top up in the day due to high temps (AC needed.) Where's that sweet spot where I can leave the top down all day and night?

tropicana wrote:i'm liking this forecast for the Toronto area region as well, with highs forecast to be near 32C 90F on Friday, that hasnt happened here since September 2007.

-justin-

Hasn't been 32 C since September 2007, now that has been a long time.

wbug1 wrote:

tropicana wrote:i'm liking this forecast for the Toronto area region as well, with highs forecast to be near 32C 90F on Friday, that hasnt happened here since September 2007.

-justin-

Hasn't been 32 C since September 2007, now that has been a long time.

For Toronto, that is very recent for having the last 32C temperature if you didn't know that. You could go swimming on Thanksgiving day (early to mid-October in Canada) it was so warm.

Sarcasm sometimes doesn't go well over the internet. .. or face to face.

wbug1 wrote:Sarcasm sometimes doesn't go well over the internet. .. or face to face.

I didn't know it was sarcasm, that's why I put "if you didn't know that" on the end.

I'd prefer average temperatures. Mid 90s is too hot this early.

This HAS TO BE the earliest heat wave we've had in a long time - especially given the analog years don is using.

We've been stuck in March temperature wise for a while, had a brief taste of April and May and then BOOM! Here's July!

Stephanie wrote:This HAS TO BE the earliest heat wave we've had in a long time - especially given the analog years don is using.

Today was the earliest 100 degree day in Raleigh, NC.

Stephanie wrote:This HAS TO BE the earliest heat wave we've had in a long time - especially given the analog years don is using.

We've been stuck in March temperature wise for a while, had a brief taste of April and May and then BOOM! Here's July!

I can never remember it this hot this early in June. 98 today and I had the pleasure of being out in it.

Cyclenall wrote:

wbug1 wrote:

tropicana wrote:i'm liking this forecast for the Toronto area region as well, with highs forecast to be near 32C 90F on Friday, that hasnt happened here since September 2007.

-justin-

Hasn't been 32 C since September 2007, now that has been a long time.

For Toronto, that is very recent for having the last 32C temperature if you didn't know that. You could go swimming on Thanksgiving day (early to mid-October in Canada) it was so warm.

true, true, that day last year, October 8 2007 Toronto hit 89F, so not quite 90F but close enough. So the 91F 33C reading that occurred on Fri Jun 6 2008 was the first 90F since Sept 2007
But I wasnt in Toronto to experience it grrrrr, i was down near Niagara Falls, where it was plenty hot also.

Good analysis Donald! It's hot where I am at.

Category 5 wrote:

Stephanie wrote:This HAS TO BE the earliest heat wave we've had in a long time - especially given the analog years don is using.

We've been stuck in March temperature wise for a while, had a brief taste of April and May and then BOOM! Here's July!

I can never remember it this hot this early in June. 98 today and I had the pleasure of being out in it.

Lovely!

I powerwashed my house yesterday - I figured working with water would help and it did. My face gets beet red when I'm out in the heat.

This morning I went out at about 10:00 to trim the grass and a few shrubs and spray Miracle Gro. I was in by 11:30. "Crazy Man" Marty (my husband), went out at 4:00 pm to mow the lawn.