STORM2K

The past what seems like a month we have been monitoring the daily severe weather threats across the region. This year for the first time I have noticed that the 1 a.m. central time outlook (aka the 0600 outlook) is always much weaker and less aggressive than the rest of them. Is there a particular reason why? Am I imagining things? Any insight into this would be great appreciated.

i'm guessing it probably has to do with wanting to be cautious about forecasting severe thunderstorms based on model progs. daylight is very useful for locating boundaries and cloud cover that is crucial to many severe wx outbreaks. there are so many times when the models may show a favorable setup, yet if they miss key areas of convection that could reduce or enhance chances of severe weather, they're next to useless.

personally, i'd have gone with a mod risk today all along. the models nailed the mid-70s dewpoints surging into the area.

watch tomorrow, though. there will be tons of leftover convective boundaries that will muddle the picture a bit until we get into the morning hours. i'm not so sure about a mod risk, but the potential is there once again.

wx247 wrote:The past what seems like a month we have been monitoring the daily severe weather threats across the region. This year for the first time I have noticed that the 1 a.m. central time outlook (aka the 0600 outlook) is always much weaker and less aggressive than the rest of them. Is there a particular reason why? Am I imagining things? Any insight into this would be great appreciated.

No you're not imagining things. The guy on graveyard at SPC in norman is new. He's less experienced and in my opinion still has a lot to learn. I have a couple friends who work at NSSL and SPC and have some friends within the weather community, they all say the same thing. He's very young but lacks the experience necessary to interpret the models and atmospheric conditions as effectively as the rest of the staff.

I've noticed it too. The upgrade to MOD later in the day and never seem to do HIGH early anymore. I think they wait until the exact parameters are in place and then re access

If you want an example of this, look at this past thursday the 5th of June. The overnight forcasts backed wayyy off earlier predictions. Subsequently at the 8am CDT issuance it all came back inline.

The last time they initialized as a high risk was on June 7, 2007 (one year ago today).