June 16-20th severe weather thread
Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 4:39 am
Latest: Kansas Doppler Radar

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Issue Date: 225 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
Expiration: 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
KSC001-009-015-017-049-053-073-079-099-105-113-115-133-155-159-
167-169-173-191-205-207-161500-
/O.NEW.KICT.SV.A.0548.080616T0725Z-080616T1500Z/
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
548 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS
IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 21 COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS
BARTON CHASE ELLSWORTH
LINCOLN MARION MCPHERSON
RICE RUSSELL SALINE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BUTLER HARVEY RENO
SEDGWICK SUMNER
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
ALLEN ELK GREENWOOD
LABETTE NEOSHO WILSON
WOODSON
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AUGUSTA...CHANUTE...
COTTONWOOD FALLS...EL DORADO...ELLSWORTH...EUREKA...FREDONIA...
GREAT BEND...HILLSBORO...HOWARD...HUTCHINSON...IOLA...LINCOLN...
LYONS...MARION...MCPHERSON...NEWTON...PARSONS...RUSSELL...
SALINA...WELLINGTON...WICHITA AND YATES CENTER.
$$
FLOOD WATCH
Issue Date: 303 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
Expiration: 400 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100-161900-
/O.EXT.KICT.FA.A.0011.000000T0000Z-080616T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-
LABETTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EUREKA...YATES CENTER...IOLA...HOWARD...
FREDONIA...CHANUTE...ERIE...SEDAN...COFFEYVILLE...INDEPENDENCE...
PARSONS
302 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...ALLEN...CHAUTAUQUA...ELK...GREENWOOD...LABETTE...
MONTGOMERY...NEOSHO...WILSON AND WOODSON.
* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...AND JUICY
AIRMASS YIELDING HIGH RAINFALL RATES. GROUND SOILS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE STILL RATHER MOIST FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A COUPLE
OF DAYS AGO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING...WITH RAPID RUNOFF
LIKELY CAUSING SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO THE NEAR SATURATED
GROUND SOILS.
Mid Atlantic Forecast Map for Tuesday:

Tuesday's Severe Weather.....Target Mid Atlantic!
An in-depth analysis by Promet Chris Sowers:
Typically the Mid Atlantic has seen its fair share of severe weather by the middle of June. But this year has been unusual. Unusual in the fact that were on pace to set a record for the most tornadoes ever across the United States and that the Mid Atlantic has been relatively quiet. With the exception of a severe weather day here and there the Mid Atlantic for the most part has gotten away pretty much "scott-free". The violent weather that has caused a record number of fatalities so far has stayed west across the Mississippi River Valley and the Central Plains.
Today, promises to be a little bit different. A SLIGHT RISK for severe weather has already been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the I-95 corridor from Boston to just north of Richmond including New Haven, New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington DC. continue

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WV INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW
ENGLAND...
AFOREMENTIONED POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD/ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THE DAY...WITH POCKETS OF HEATING
CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BY AFTERNOON.
WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN....[color="Red"]SOME SUPERCELLS[/color] WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY QUICK EVOLUTION INTO LINEAR MULTICELL CLUSTERS OWING TO
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL/MODERATELY STRONG LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW. AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH 50-60 KT MID LEVEL
WESTERLIES...IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WILL FAVOR FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE LINES WITH
EFFECTIVE COLD POOL GENERATION. THUS QUASI-LINEAR MCS
EXPANSION/MATURATION SEEMS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERNS STILL EXIST REGARDING THE
LOCATION/EXTENT OF EARLY DAY TSTMS AND DENSER CLOUD COVER...STRONG
KINEMATICS/COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALOFT AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL
FOR BROAD CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE AND SEVERE HAIL WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL MODERATE SEVERE RISK.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Issue Date: 225 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
Expiration: 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
KSC001-009-015-017-049-053-073-079-099-105-113-115-133-155-159-
167-169-173-191-205-207-161500-
/O.NEW.KICT.SV.A.0548.080616T0725Z-080616T1500Z/
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
548 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS
IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 21 COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS
BARTON CHASE ELLSWORTH
LINCOLN MARION MCPHERSON
RICE RUSSELL SALINE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BUTLER HARVEY RENO
SEDGWICK SUMNER
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
ALLEN ELK GREENWOOD
LABETTE NEOSHO WILSON
WOODSON
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AUGUSTA...CHANUTE...
COTTONWOOD FALLS...EL DORADO...ELLSWORTH...EUREKA...FREDONIA...
GREAT BEND...HILLSBORO...HOWARD...HUTCHINSON...IOLA...LINCOLN...
LYONS...MARION...MCPHERSON...NEWTON...PARSONS...RUSSELL...
SALINA...WELLINGTON...WICHITA AND YATES CENTER.
$$
FLOOD WATCH
Issue Date: 303 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
Expiration: 400 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100-161900-
/O.EXT.KICT.FA.A.0011.000000T0000Z-080616T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-
LABETTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EUREKA...YATES CENTER...IOLA...HOWARD...
FREDONIA...CHANUTE...ERIE...SEDAN...COFFEYVILLE...INDEPENDENCE...
PARSONS
302 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...ALLEN...CHAUTAUQUA...ELK...GREENWOOD...LABETTE...
MONTGOMERY...NEOSHO...WILSON AND WOODSON.
* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...AND JUICY
AIRMASS YIELDING HIGH RAINFALL RATES. GROUND SOILS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE STILL RATHER MOIST FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A COUPLE
OF DAYS AGO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING...WITH RAPID RUNOFF
LIKELY CAUSING SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO THE NEAR SATURATED
GROUND SOILS.
Mid Atlantic Forecast Map for Tuesday:

Tuesday's Severe Weather.....Target Mid Atlantic!
An in-depth analysis by Promet Chris Sowers:
Typically the Mid Atlantic has seen its fair share of severe weather by the middle of June. But this year has been unusual. Unusual in the fact that were on pace to set a record for the most tornadoes ever across the United States and that the Mid Atlantic has been relatively quiet. With the exception of a severe weather day here and there the Mid Atlantic for the most part has gotten away pretty much "scott-free". The violent weather that has caused a record number of fatalities so far has stayed west across the Mississippi River Valley and the Central Plains.
Today, promises to be a little bit different. A SLIGHT RISK for severe weather has already been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the I-95 corridor from Boston to just north of Richmond including New Haven, New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington DC. continue

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WV INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW
ENGLAND...
AFOREMENTIONED POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD/ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THE DAY...WITH POCKETS OF HEATING
CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BY AFTERNOON.
WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN....[color="Red"]SOME SUPERCELLS[/color] WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY QUICK EVOLUTION INTO LINEAR MULTICELL CLUSTERS OWING TO
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL/MODERATELY STRONG LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW. AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH 50-60 KT MID LEVEL
WESTERLIES...IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WILL FAVOR FAST MOVING CONVECTIVE LINES WITH
EFFECTIVE COLD POOL GENERATION. THUS QUASI-LINEAR MCS
EXPANSION/MATURATION SEEMS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERNS STILL EXIST REGARDING THE
LOCATION/EXTENT OF EARLY DAY TSTMS AND DENSER CLOUD COVER...STRONG
KINEMATICS/COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALOFT AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL
FOR BROAD CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE AND SEVERE HAIL WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL MODERATE SEVERE RISK.